Surface trough over the southern GOM

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

06Z GFS showing genesis now under a weak UL High

[srainhoutx]

Remember that these CAG genesis events typically take time and the various models tend to rush things. Also there is a big Western trough that certainly could have an impact later this week on the sensible weather across the Central/Southern Plains. Wind shear could be a problem if genesis is delayed until the coming weekend or early the following week.

[cycloneye]

NHC is not on board yet.

[GCANE]

Wave is starting to fire some good convection in the Mona Passage and NE of DR.

[GCANE]

Trough in the Bahamas and Wave in the Mona Passage clearly seen on 500mb vort

[GeneratorPower]

I really want to believe. But there is zippo in the W Caribbean or any part of the Caribbean at the moment. What are you guys looking at?

[Hurricaneman]

I really want to believe. But there is zippo in the W Caribbean or any part of the Caribbean at the moment. What are you guys looking at?

It’s not there yet but is a combo of the Upper trough in the Bahamas and tropical wave in the Mona passage

[N2FSU]

12z GFS


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[N2FSU]

Perhaps?


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[ronjon]

12z ECM, CMC, and ICON all have a tropical depression or storm moving NW from the Yuc into the GOM in 4-5 days.

[N2FSU]

UKMET +48 hrs


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[N2FSU]

UK then moves it NW into GOM


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[N2FSU]

12z Canadian develops it in 48hrs then eventually buries it in BOC
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[NDG]

12z Euro ensembles.

[Ivanhater]

Each Euro run seems to be getting a little bit stronger each run. We are just begging for a pattern break along the northern gulf coast, no rain in weeks.

[Nimbus]

There is lots of unsettled weather north of Hispaniola with an upper level flow that will bring that southwest into the Caribbean. No idea yet if or where to initialize a low. Quite a lot of shear in the Caribbean so its just model runs at the moment.

[GCANE]

850mb vort is developing west of Jamaica with associated convection.

[GCANE]

Low-level clouds moving from the west to east just south of the convection

[Aric Dunn]

Low-level clouds moving from the west to east just south of the convection

https://i.imgur.com/TL0PNbU.png

Well looky here..


North side of that convection is showing bunch of curved inflow.

South side also has clear southerly inflow.

If that convection maintains for the next 12 hours. We could see something trying to get going