2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[stormlover2013]

With the sweltering month we’re having here on the northern Gulf Coast (several days have hit 100 here in Tallahassee), I am watching the potential signal of a West Caribbean system moving north into the Gulf very closely. The setup reminds me of Michael. A storm forming in this area during the first two weeks of October is likely in my opinion. If shear is low, there is plenty of untapped hot water to allow for robust intensification. No one should be letting your guard down! Two more months of hurricane season to go...

we need a cold front to have a track like micheal or a strong trough, right now I don't see anything for the first 2 weeks in october to show a Micheal track once we get that cold front then yesss

[Blown Away]

06z GFS shows a possible storm and likely lowering pressures in W Caribbean in @12 days... It's beginning that time of the year...

[Hurricaneman]

I believe the ULL will get the CAG started but the The GFS the last few runs show the catalyst for development being the wave that leaves Africa in 48 hrs makes it into the western Caribbean providing the spark in about 11 to 12 days. Have to watch future GFS runs to see if it continues to show up

[TheStormExpert]

Development on the 12z GFS starts @ 318hrs. (October 10th) in the NW Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

Development on the 12z GFS starts @ 318hrs. (October 10th) in the NW Caribbean.

As early as 282 hours energy is coalescing. Similar to 6z. BUT, this is so far out it's near lunacy to compare back to back runs

[SFLcane]

For now i say phantom TC on the GFS. Also with high pressure to the north its looks to be driven into CA or Mex but pure speculation.

[psyclone]

With the sweltering month we’re having here on the northern Gulf Coast (several days have hit 100 here in Tallahassee), I am watching the potential signal of a West Caribbean system moving north into the Gulf very closely. The setup reminds me of Michael. A storm forming in this area during the first two weeks of October is likely in my opinion. If shear is low, there is plenty of untapped hot water to allow for robust intensification. No one should be letting your guard down! Two more months of hurricane season to go...

we need a cold front to have a track like micheal or a strong trough, right now I don't see anything for the first 2 weeks in october to show a Micheal track once we get that cold front then yesss

We do not need a front to turn a storm north. We simply need ridging to the north to abate and a system will head north...which is in sight per the CPC outlooks which have been taking the foot off the gas on the above normal anoms in the east This is why climo dramatically closes the window in the western gulf as we head into October. Climo this compelling is rarely denied and this will likely be no exception..

[Ivanhater]

This thread is exactly what it states, for global models. If anyone wants to post model runs, they can.

Now, back to model runs.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1177654101154205696

[stormlover2013]

With the sweltering month we’re having here on the northern Gulf Coast (several days have hit 100 here in Tallahassee), I am watching the potential signal of a West Caribbean system moving north into the Gulf very closely. The setup reminds me of Michael. A storm forming in this area during the first two weeks of October is likely in my opinion. If shear is low, there is plenty of untapped hot water to allow for robust intensification. No one should be letting your guard down! Two more months of hurricane season to go...

we need a cold front to have a track like micheal or a strong trough, right now I don't see anything for the first 2 weeks in october to show a Micheal track once we get that cold front then yesss

We do not need a front to turn a storm north. We simply need ridging to the north to abate and a system will head north...which is in sight per the CPC outlooks which have been taking the foot off the gas on the above normal anoms in the east This is why climo dramatically closes the window in the western gulf as we head into October. Climo this compelling is rarely denied and this will likely be no exception..

this pattern is more like august and September, meaning ridge in place in SE that's pretty strong so we need to a cold front to break down the ridging

[stormlover2013]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

euro 12z still showing a strong tropical wave heading towards la and Texas

[stormlover2013]

we need a cold front to have a track like micheal or a strong trough, right now I don't see anything for the first 2 weeks in october to show a Micheal track once we get that cold front then yesss

We do not need a front to turn a storm north. We simply need ridging to the north to abate and a system will head north...which is in sight per the CPC outlooks which have been taking the foot off the gas on the above normal anoms in the east This is why climo dramatically closes the window in the western gulf as we head into October. Climo this compelling is rarely denied and this will likely be no exception..

this pattern is more like august and September, meaning ridge in place in SE that's pretty strong so we need to a cold front to break down the ridging, the 12z euro shows this

[Hurricaneman]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

euro 12z still showing a strong tropical wave heading towards la and Texas

And lowering pressures at the end of run in the SW Caribbean

[stormlover2013]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

euro 12z still showing a strong tropical wave heading towards la and Texas

And lowering pressures at the end of run in the SW Caribbean

yes sir!! this by the euro isn't climatology with how strong that ridge is, we need a cold front or strong trough to break the ridge down

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=240

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is still another EPS that says that the last couple of days of GEFS runs are likely out to lunch with their W Caribbean TC 10/8+. It has very little activity then. This tells me that the GEFS runs could very well be tracking a phantom, something it is known for there in October.

[SFLcane]

The 12Z EPS is still another EPS that says that the last couple of days of GEFS runs are likely out to lunch with their W Caribbean TC 10/8+. It has very little activity then. This tells me that the GEFS runs could very well be tracking a phantom, something it is known for there in October.

I think the end of October will be pretty quiet so if we don't see anything by October 10-15 we are probably done with US threats. GFS long range stuff is often fantasy

[blp]

12Z GEFS still with strong signal. Let's see if this version of the GFS gets rid of the phantoms of the past.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GEFS still with strong signal. Let's see if this version of the GFS gets rid of the phantoms of the past.

https://i.ibb.co/w4bMdmV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-64.png

The GEFS still uses the old Legacy-GFS data for its runs.

[blp]

The 12Z EPS is still another EPS that says that the last couple of days of GEFS runs are likely out to lunch with their W Caribbean TC 10/8+. It has very little activity then. This tells me that the GEFS runs could very well be tracking a phantom, something it is known for there in October.

Hard to say because the EPS does not go out as far as GEFS. If you look at the GEFS during 240hr looks pretty barren as well. We need to wait a few more runs.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is still another EPS that says that the last couple of days of GEFS runs are likely out to lunch with their W Caribbean TC 10/8+. It has very little activity then. This tells me that the GEFS runs could very well be tracking a phantom, something it is known for there in October.

Hard to say because the EPS does not go out as far as GEFS. If you look at the GEFS during 240hr looks pretty barren as well. We need to wait a few more runs.

The EPS goes out to 360 and it has next to nothing during the days leading by up to 360.