WPAC: MITAG - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Shear has really reduced ever since 95W ( )... and GFS is aggressive with another model storm in the long range

[Hayabusa]

[Tailspin]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/hcXM3HG4Kgc[/youtube]
Robert Speta

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 270031

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 26/2350Z

C. 13.66N

D. 139.76E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2023Z 13.43N 140.68E SSMS
26/2058Z 13.53N 140.48E SSMS


MARTIN

[1900hurricane]

Might be about time to classify.

[1900hurricane]

Testing a SLIDER image download via imgur.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance is really zeroing in hard on the southern Ryukyus in 3-4 days. Could be another major strike to the Ishigakijima and Miyakojima area.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1177432893884456960

[1900hurricane]

I'd call the circulation closed (barely) based on ASCAT data. Give me a 25 kt TD for 06Z.

[Tailspin]

Deceiving looks eyeballing it. On rbtop appears too getting more organised today

[euro6208]

Upgraded.

19W NINETEEN 190927 0600 14.1N 137.0E WPAC 25 1006

[euro6208]

00Z EURO and 00Z GFS has a track similiar to Tapah.

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 906
NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TD 19W CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE
WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 270603Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 19W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). TD 19W HAS EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 19W IS QUICKLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. IN THE SHORT TERM, TD 19W WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. FORWARD TRACK SPEED HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY FAST OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT ACCURATELY
CAPTURED THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
TD 19W TO STAIDLY INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 48, TD 19W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIFURCATION WITH NAVGEM AND JGSM
OUTLIERS TO THE EAST WITH THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TIGHTLY
GROUPED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 265 NM BY TAU 72 WITH ECMWF ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE MODELS AND JGSM ON THE EASTERN EDGE. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY FAST TRACK SPEED AND THE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 19W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVER OUTFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND ALLOW TD 19W TO REACH 90 KNOTS BY TAU
96. AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL HELP TO
ACCELERATE TD 19W NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF 480 NM.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODELS WITH JGSM AND
NAVGEM STILL OUTLIERS TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

DURING THIS PERIOD DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT ACCURATELY
CAPTURED THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.

Yep comparing it to the UKMET 26/00Z @ 24 hr to 27/00Z @ 0 hr, it's off by 227 nm/420 km

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 270859

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (W OF GUAM)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 14.07N

D. 136.12E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1177100127380459521

[euro6208]

06Z GFS has this spreading all across Japan. Ouch for the Rugby Cup!

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1177100127380459521

Depending on direction at the time of that HWRF image, could be headed for the Ryukyus. Josh might end up playing his loathed "Island Roulette" again (just saw the Soulik/Cimaron episode of "Hurricane Man").

[euro6208]

Interesting on these rain-flagged.

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 839
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND BANDING HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 271233Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE LLCC. HOWEVER, THE WIND BARBS AT THE CORE OF THE LLCC
ARE RAIN FLAGGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
ADDITIONALLY, THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS WIND BARBS OF 30
TO 35 KNOTS, WHICH ARE RAIN FLAGGED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TD 19W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS). TD 19W HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT
LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 19W HAS SLOWED
IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE SHORT TERM, TD 19W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TD 19W TO STAIDLY INTENSIFY, REACHING
70 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TD 19W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
JGSM NOW THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE EAST. THE PREVIOUS NAVGEM MODEL RUN
WAS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. NOW, NAVGEM IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL
RUNS AND THE JGSM OUTLIER, THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 19W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
WILL REMAIN ROBUST ALLOWING TD 19W TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 KNOTS
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. AN APPROACHING WEST TO EAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL HELP TO ACCELERATE TD 19W NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
120 WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 700 NM. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODELS WITH JGSM THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE EAST.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Mitag is well known for it's 2002 appearance. I cannot forget it one bit.