ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StruThiO]

what does CMG and CDG mean?

[gatorcane]

Impressive I must say. Good thing it is out in the middle of nowhere affecting nobody.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

ADT-Version 8.2.1 =====
----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix
2019SEP27 004000 6.7 932.0 132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.84 -72.05 EYE 23 IR 54.1 17.15 41.19 COMBO

[northjaxpro]

Impressive I must say. Good thing it is out in the middle of nowhere affecting nobody.

For the time being , Thank God!

But, The Azores may.have to worry about potential impacts from Lorenzo down the road.

[wx98]

The White ring is expanding on Dvorak and CMG is filling in...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I ran KZC for 125 to 140 kt given current measurables. Here's what I got.

>>> c = 14
>>> l = 18
>>> oci = 1012
>>> r34 = 155
>>> for v in range (125, 141, 5):
print('%d kt, %.0f mb' % (v, KZC(KZCdP(v, c, r34, l), oci)))


125 kt, 939 mb
130 kt, 934 mb
135 kt, 930 mb
140 kt, 925 mb

How you do that sir.

He used Python.

[1900hurricane]

I ran KZC for 125 to 140 kt given current measurables. Here's what I got.

>>> c = 14
>>> l = 18
>>> oci = 1012
>>> r34 = 155
>>> for v in range (125, 141, 5):
print('%d kt, %.0f mb' % (v, KZC(KZCdP(v, c, r34, l), oci)))


125 kt, 939 mb
130 kt, 934 mb
135 kt, 930 mb
140 kt, 925 mb

How you do that sir.

I have a bunch of functions I wrote of tropical cyclone related equations and calculations. I'm just accessing one of them, the Knaff, Zehr, and Courtney Wind/Pressure Relationship, here in a Python shell and copying over the output.

[StruThiO]

160 kt Dorian



125 kt Lorenzo

[Kazmit]

160 kt Dorian

https://i.imgur.com/JA39kzH.png

125 kt Lorenzo

https://i.imgur.com/cfRVRpo.png

That is ridiculous.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Hurricane 13L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.0

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2019 Time : 015024 UTC
Lat : 17:18:35 N Lon : 41:20:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 929.9mb/132.2kt

[1900hurricane]

Probably an easy call to bump up to at least 130 kt for 03Z at this rate. I wouldn't get too crazy with the intensity yet though.

[wx98]

Typical NHC only going with 125 kts

[StruThiO]

Well, time to riot. I'll bring the pitchforks

[Highteeld]

Well, time to riot. I'll bring the pitchforks

Stewart would have gone higher...

[1900hurricane]

Heh, I would have bumped up based on trends (as I mentioned above), but can't fault NHC too much for sticking with their 00Z intensity estimate for the advisory.

[Hurricaneman]

Heh, I would have bumped up based on trends (as I mentioned above), but can't fault NHC too much for sticking with their 00Z intensity estimate for the advisory.

Only recon can prove whether it’s stronger or not, we only have satellite estimates for now

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lorenzo just needs to work on the northern part of his CDO. When he does, he'll probably hit 140 knots IMO.

Re: Dorian vs Lorenzo, Lorenzo wins as far as cold cloudtops but Dorian's CDO was more symmetrical.

[CrazyC83]

Lorenzo just needs to work on the northern part of his CDO. When he does, he'll probably hit 140 knots IMO.

Re: Dorian vs Lorenzo, Lorenzo wins as far as cold cloudtops but Dorian's CDO was more symmetrical.

Without Recon it is unlikely the NHC would have rated Dorian a cat 5 anyway. It probably would have been classified around 120 kt if there was no Recon.

[supercane4867]

A good analog for Lorenzo in terms of intensity I think is Igor. Both were likely at least 130kt but not quite a clear cut CAT5.

Isabel was way more intense. Probably close to 160-170kts at peak

[StruThiO]

Lorenzo just needs to work on the northern part of his CDO. When he does, he'll probably hit 140 knots IMO.

Re: Dorian vs Lorenzo, Lorenzo wins as far as cold cloudtops but Dorian's CDO was more symmetrical.

Also Dorian's eye was warmer. Yeah I can definitely see the case for 130, 135, or 140 kts. Not 125 however.

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