ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#201 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:04 pm



With the thickening, cooling CDO, a case may be made for an intensity of 130 kt now.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#202 Postby TallyTracker » Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:14 pm

I didn’t think Lorenzo could become a Cat 5 hurricane that far to the east. I’m not so sure now... :eek:
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#203 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:17 pm

I’m excited to see what the NOAA P3 mission finds tomorrow. Glad we will have some intensity validation on this one.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#204 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:19 pm

What a beauty so far east.

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#205 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:33 pm

Convection in eyewall still deepening, could make a case for it being near a 5 already, though 130-135kts seems the range.

Recon going to be interesting, though my gut says it maybe off its peak by then.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#206 Postby Do_For_Love » Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:54 pm

From the NHC disco, seemed worth isolating and posting for emphasis:

While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of
the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central
tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent
times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#207 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:02 pm

They went with what they described as a possibly conservative 120 kt.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1177325850728882176




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1177325716955942912


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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#208 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:38 pm

Sunset view

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#209 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:40 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#210 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:46 pm

:double:

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#211 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:51 pm

Dr. Ryan Maue's take on Lorenzo.

Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue. 2h
Lorenzo could intensity further -- Category 5 is still a potential -- as ocean waters over the next 1-2 days are plenty warm. Add in the favorable upper-level winds, and the large size, Lorenzo surely is an enormous & anomalous hurricane in the far Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#212 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:24 pm

If we had recon today, they very well might have found evidence for a cat 5. This is quite the storm.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#213 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:27 pm

Not trying to start anything, just comparing the two out of curiosity.

Hurricane Lorenzo, 120 kt

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Hurricane Igor, 135 kt

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#214 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:36 pm

I know the NHC is quite conservative when there is no Recon, and they admitted it in the discussion.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#215 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:29 pm

TallyTracker wrote:I didn’t think Lorenzo could become a Cat 5 hurricane that far to the east. I’m not so sure now... :eek:


I thought it had a shot of doing so and posted that earlier on this thread. Lorenzo just may indeed attain Cat 5. An incredible tropical cyclone!! I am so awestruck looking at him on satellite imagery!
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#216 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:47 pm

Recon right now would be nice, even if it is in the middle of nowhere! For all we know, this could be at least close to cat 5 (or perhaps a lot weaker than we think?).
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#217 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Recon right now would be nice, even if it is in the middle of nowhere! For all we know, this could be at least close to cat 5 (or perhaps a lot weaker than we think?).


No way this is weaker. This imo is on the brink of CAT 5 , if is not already.
What an amazing , but unfortunately deadly season we are seeing with these incredible major, record setting hurricanes!! Lorenzo is just beyond spectacular!
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#218 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:29 pm

I think I'd go 125 kt for 00Z. Looks like it has recently met a DT of 6.5 for a WMG eye embedded in B. ADT is also at 6.5 with raw up to 6.7. SATCON is still at 110 kt, but data is a little old right now. There should be some new AMSU data soon I'd think.

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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#219 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:30 pm

27/0000 UTC 17.1N 41.2W T6.5/6.5 LORENZO -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Hurricane - Discussion

#220 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:32 pm

At this rate a 7.0 is in the realm of possibilities sometime tonight
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