ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6356
- Age: 61
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
When you look at the Recon wind barbs out there right now, you see winds well NE of the center out of the SSE, they should be around to the East or ENE
1 likes
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 998.9mb/ 37.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.7 2.7
2.6 / 998.9mb/ 37.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.7 2.7
1 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
StruThiO wrote:https://imgur.com/STWAlaY
998 MB and t numbers 2.7? rather a large drop in pressure, if this is correct and that red square is the center, so goes the intensity forecast, this storm is trying to make everyone look foolish except Aric.
3 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
THe long curved bands developing from the center to the south are rather interesting..
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:THe long curved bands developing from the center to the south are rather interesting..
https://i.ibb.co/d5sxLvd/23348153-1.gif
Watching this loop it almost feels like the that e and stall/turn motion might be coming sooner than forecast. Looks like it might be heading more east than north currently
1 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hmm. 998.9 mb MSLP . If that report is correct, that is the lowest I have seen yet with Karen. That is not indicative of a weakening cyclone at the current time if that report is correct. I will double check the pressure reading or get confirmation from others on here.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Last edited by StruThiO on Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:Hmm. 998.9 mb MSLP . If that report is correct, that is the lowest I have seen yet with Karen. That is not indicative of a weakening cyclone at the current time if that report is correct. I will double check the pressure reading or get confirmation from others on here.
well the bouy that is probably 50 miles or so from the center has 1006 mb. so that seems reasonable.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
latest lower convergence plot shows that it finally is establishing some inflow
Compare to previous:
Compare to previous:
Last edited by aperson on Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes
- AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2656
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
StruThiO wrote:Looks to me like rumors of Karen's death may have been greatly exaggerated.
https://imgur.com/oQPPTAK
Is that an eye?
Kidding! Kidding!
5 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AnnularCane wrote:StruThiO wrote:Looks to me like rumors of Karen's death may have been greatly exaggerated.
https://imgur.com/oQPPTAK
Is that an eye?
Kidding! Kidding!
I am wondering what is causing it though… peculiar shape
0 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Apparently, that 998.9 mb pressure reading is correct. Karen is not weakening based on this fact alone. It is quite the contrary. Karen is once again dipping into her bag of tricks, deceiving quite a number of folks. Lol..
I guess some will keep on writing her off, but she keeps saying No, not yet LOL...
I guess some will keep on writing her off, but she keeps saying No, not yet LOL...
1 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:Apparently, that 998.9 mb pressure reading is correct. Karen is not weakening based on this fact alone. It is quite the contrary. Karen is once again dipping into her bag of tricks, deceiving quite a number of folks. Lol..
I guess some will keep on writing her off, but she keeps saying No, not yet LOL...
I'm taking take the middle road at this time. There's no reason to write her off nor is there a reason to worry about her. Just keep following real-time data as well as model trends.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:Apparently, that 998.9 mb pressure reading is correct. Karen is not weakening based on this fact alone. It is quite the contrary. Karen is once again dipping into her bag of tricks deceiving quite a number of folks. Lol..
I guess some will keep on writing her off, butvshe keeps saying No, not yet LOL...
fwiw, that isn’t a pressure reading. Instead it’s a satellite estimate based on presentation. A buoy recorded 1006mb as the storm passed 30 miles to the south. Based on the recon pressure gradient this comes out to around 1004mb which is far more reasonable.
4 likes
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So the DVORAK estimate of the center was in fact correct..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
We have twins in the Atlantic tonight, hard to tell which one is which, j/k
2 likes
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:So the DVORAK estimate of the center was in fact correct..
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/color37/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.color37.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/37h/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.37h.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg
This tells me that the center is likely pretty much on track.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That spot in the middle of Karen is a bit weird. Looks like an eye is forming but we know that can’t be...right?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:So the DVORAK estimate of the center was in fact correct..
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/color37/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.color37.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/12L.KAREN/windsat/37h/20190926.2208.coriolis.x.37h.12LKAREN.40kts-1005mb-269N-632W.088pc.jpg
This tells me that the center is likely pretty much on track.
given the last recon fix the dvorak position and this.. along with the cloud motion.. it wont make it to 28n.. looks like it has already turned east.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests