ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

It's always interesting seeing the discussion between Aric and Wxman57, both are very knowledgeable but see the tropics very differently. Aric will say it's on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and Wxman57 will say it's on the verge of opening up into a wave

And if you average them out - it's like the NHC official forecast LOL

Wxman57 and Aric Dunn are like the Avila and Stewart of Storm2k. A classic pair and I couldn't imagine one without the other!

I also tend to agree that something in the middle (a moderate to weak - but enduring - tropical storm) will end up happening.

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

[tropicwatch]

And if you average them out - it's like the NHC official forecast LOL

Wxman57 and Aric Dunn are like the Avila and Stewart of Storm2k. A classic pair and I couldn't imagine one without the other!

I also tend to agree that something in the middle (a moderate to weak - but enduring - tropical storm) will end up happening.

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

You are showing you age with that Abbott and Costello comment and Happy Birthday!

[northjaxpro]

Wxman57 and Aric Dunn are like the Avila and Stewart of Storm2k. A classic pair and I couldn't imagine one without the other!

I also tend to agree that something in the middle (a moderate to weak - but enduring - tropical storm) will end up happening.

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

You are showing you age with that Abbott and Costello comment and Happy Birthday!

LOL... Yeah I guess I did not realize that Panama giving myself away like that LOL.. Yeah for those wondering I am 54.

[northjaxpro]

BTW, I think Karen will survive today and organize under marginal conditions to a moderate TS. However, her future is iffy beyond Friday. We will see , but stranger things have happened in this season alone. One thing I have learned this season is to never underestimate what these cyclones can do. They have a mind of their own. I think Dorian taught a good lesson to us all about this!

[AnnularCane]

And if you average them out - it's like the NHC official forecast LOL

Wxman57 and Aric Dunn are like the Avila and Stewart of Storm2k. A classic pair and I couldn't imagine one without the other!

I also tend to agree that something in the middle (a moderate to weak - but enduring - tropical storm) will end up happening.

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Happy birthday! But it says there you joined on the 27th.

[shortwave1]

Nice tower firing over the western side of the semi exposed center. now I sound a bit like G-Cane.. this place is contagious.

[USVIKimmie]

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Well happy birthday then. It’s hard being a September baby during hurricane season.
I should know. Mine was a little over a week ago.

And to make this qualify as local info - just got home I checked that CoCorahs rain gauge... not EVEN an inch. Only .88. I can’t say as I’m surprised, because there was some sunshine around noon yesterday. The waterfront down in Charlotte Amalie flooded, though. I believe that was from ocean swell (and not much of a sea wall).

[northjaxpro]

Wxman57 and Aric Dunn are like the Avila and Stewart of Storm2k. A classic pair and I couldn't imagine one without the other!

I also tend to agree that something in the middle (a moderate to weak - but enduring - tropical storm) will end up happening.

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Happy birthday! But it says there you joined on the 27th.

I joined on my birthday, but deleted the initial account to go under a different alias, and joined 2 days later under my current alias Northjaxpro. And the rest is history................

[GCANE]

There is a cell firing on the CoC.
It even starts out with an IR hole, indicating a warm core.
But like all the other convection, its washing out.

[northjaxpro]

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Well happy birthday then. It’s hard being a September baby during hurricane season.
I should know. Mine was a little over a week ago.

And to make this qualify as local info - just got home I checked that CoCorahs rain gauge... not EVEN an inch. Only .88. I can’t say as I’m surprised, because there was some sunshine around noon yesterday. The waterfront down in Charlotte Amalie flooded, though. I believe that was from ocean swell (and not much of a sea wall).

Thank You USVI Kimmie for the well wishes! Also, I hope you and everyone down in the Virgin Islands fared OK under the circumstances with TS Karen last night!

[chaser1]

The best analogy that I can come up with to describe Karen's appearance this mid-morning would probably only be understood or fully
appreciated by cat owners. That "pile" on the floor which you strain to identify because you just don't want to get THAT close to it for fear
that it may actually be something that could still be alive. Finally after straining your eyes to see a pulse or any movement whatsoever....
you realize that it's nothing more then a "hair-ball". Congratulations Karen, you are officially the 2019 Atlantic Basin Hair-ball of the season.

[Fishing]

Wxman57 and Aric Dunn are like the Avila and Stewart of Storm2k. A classic pair and I couldn't imagine one without the other!

I also tend to agree that something in the middle (a moderate to weak - but enduring - tropical storm) will end up happening.

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Happy birthday! But it says there you joined on the 27th.

That is the day for joining Tapatalk I believe . The Storm2K site on the web / as opposed to the app Tapatalk is prob is actual forum date. (Guessing here)
Happy birthday and Storm2K Anniversary to Jax (that’s my nickname for you) Wx57 is 57 and Aric is Aric. I enjoy the majority of posts .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[northjaxpro]

I enjoy the banter with Aric and 57. They are like Abbott and Costello LOL... I will say this for Aric, he dissects and analyzes to the fine detail everything that is going on out in the tropics more than what I do at my job LOL...

This is one of the reasons I enjoy spending whatever free time I can squeeze out to come on here to the forum. BTW, it is my 9 year anniversary today here on Storm2k, which happens to coincide with my birthday today as well!!

Happy birthday! But it says there you joined on the 27th.

That is the day for joining Tapatalk I believe . The Storm2K site on the web / as opposed to the app Tapatalk is prob is actual forum date. (Guessing here)
Happy birthday and Storm2K Anniversary to Jax (that’s my nickname for you) Wx57 is 57 and Aric is Aric. I enjoy the majority of posts .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks Fishing for the Birthday wishes!!

[HurricaneFrances04]

It appears the center is partially exposed in the latest visible imagery, although some thunderstorms are trying to fire up.

[wx98]

Holding steady, waiting on the next recon mission

...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 21.7°N 64.9°W
Moving: N at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[HurricaneFrances04]

It also appears that Jerry is moving east, and may pass south of Bermuda. Is it possible that Jerry's circulation inhibits Karen from strengthening?

[wxman57]

The very opposite of a well-organized, strengthening TS. I seriously doubt it has 40 kt winds circulating around that center.

[wx98]

Draw a line from Bermuda to Haiti and meet halfway. The NHC 5-day point is there and heading WSW in the direction of the Central Bahamas

[wx98]

It also appears that Jerry is moving east, and may pass south of Bermuda. Is it possible that Jerry's circulation inhibits Karen from strengthening?

Looking on satellite, to me I’d say that Karen is too far south for Jerry to have any adverse affects, but the ULL to Karen’s northwest is a different story. Looks to be shearing off the west side of Karen, at least some.

[Michele B]

Oddly quiet in here considering the circumstances. Tropical burn-out perhaps ? I'd like to see the Google Adsense Bot weigh in on the discussion

Not much to say.....this one's a head scratcher for sure!