ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

:uarrow: Lol, can there possibly be more disagreement between 2 posts just 9 minutes apart?

One is optimistic about favorable scenarios, the other is pessimistic about every TS that seems to encounter 5kts of shear.



I am the latter.

[jconsor]

That buoy (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41043) is located at 64.8W and the deep convection associated with Karen has stayed mainly west of it. Also, recent sat loops suggest the center of Karen is west of prior NHC estimates, closer to 65.5-65.7W. That would put the buoy outside of the radius of maximum winds of a small storm like Karen (NHC estimates the RMW to be 20 nm). In short, it is unlikely IMHO that the conditions observed at the buoy represent Karen's maximum winds. I think the NHC's estimate of 40 kt is reasonable.

The NHC isn't believing the dynamic models for their intensity forecast, they are using statistical models. I'm believing the dynamic models, and I don't think Karen's winds are 45 kts this morning. It may not even have any TS winds. The buoy in the image below has been going through the worst Karen could dish out and winds haven't reached 30 kts yet. The NHC forecast track looks pretty good, but I think it'll be a depression or a remnant low by day 5.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen11.JPG

[CyclonicFury]

:uarrow: Lol, can there possibly be more disagreement between 2 posts just 9 minutes apart?

One is optimistic about favorable scenarios, the other is pessimistic about every TS that seems to encounter 5kts of shear.

I am the latter.

It's always interesting seeing the discussion between Aric and Wxman57, both are very knowledgeable but see the tropics very differently. Aric will say it's on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and Wxman57 will say it's on the verge of opening up into a wave

[chris_fit]

:uarrow: Lol, can there possibly be more disagreement between 2 posts just 9 minutes apart?

One is optimistic about favorable scenarios, the other is pessimistic about every TS that seems to encounter 5kts of shear.

I am the latter.

It's always interesting seeing the discussion between Aric and Wxman57, both are very knowledgeable but see the tropics very differently. Aric will say it's on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and Wxman57 will say it's on the verge of opening up into a wave

And if you average them out - it's like the NHC official forecast LOL

[SFLcane]

Looking at the WV, there is an upper level low W of Karen, slowly moving W. Karen is under a growing upper level high. Conditions look favorable for strengthening the next 36 hours or so, as the UL drops WSW, and Karen moves N under a growing anti cyclone. However, there is no global model support for strengthening, which has been very typical this year, and often incorrect. How Karen develops today will affect her motion. The 0Z Euro ensembles suggest that the stronger members turn left sooner, or spend less time looping.

Excellent post in terms of the ensembles but for now it is a minority solution by far though.

[pgoss11]

:uarrow: Lol, can there possibly be more disagreement between 2 posts just 9 minutes apart?

I know right?!! How can two reliable people on this forum see two entirely different things?

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the progression of the wind shear maps over the past 6-9hrs. It appears that the ull wnw of Karen has weakened.

[GCANE]

Large towers fire off with great warm-core signatures on IR and Rain-rate imagery.
However, they last a couple hours at most.
They are raining out, too much shear due to the fact vorts are severely skewed.

[GCANE]

Big outflow boundary moving out to the east after that double tower fired off.

[SFLcane]

Hmm.. for now i might just side with wxman57 Karen might not even make it through tonight in my opinion. Looks horrible this morning

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1176846464674349057

[GCANE]

Karen is the quintessential split-personality flake.
One minute she's looks like she's undergoing RI.
Wait ten minutes later and she's puking.
She definitely broke my heart.

[Aric Dunn]

To be fair here. That outflow boundary was from a well removed convective band.

If you look where the center is you can see new curved convection building inwards.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Lol, can there possibly be more disagreement between 2 posts just 9 minutes apart?

One is optimistic about favorable scenarios, the other is pessimistic about every TS that seems to encounter 5kts of shear.

I am the latter.

It's always interesting seeing the discussion between Aric and Wxman57, both are very knowledgeable but see the tropics very differently. Aric will say it's on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and Wxman57 will say it's on the verge of opening up into a wave

Or bringing out Bones

[Michele B]

Karen is the quintessential split-personality flake.
One minute she's looks like she's undergoing RI.
Wait ten minutes later and she's puking.
She definitely broke my heart.

https://i.imgur.com/REfPuQ4.jpg

Hey, I know a “Karen” exactly like that!

LOL

[wxman57]

Karen appears to be struggling, to me. Center is now nearly exposed NE of weakening convection. I do think that buoy went through Karen's heaviest squalls, as the center passed only 15-20 miles away as I measure it on my workstation. It is hard to locate the center in such a poorly-organized storm, though. Wind shear appears to be taking its toll. Big outflow boundary to the east. Not a sign of a strengthening storm.

[edu2703]

Between thinking Karen will dissipate or reaching hurricane status, I prefer to stay in the middle.

Right now, Karen looks disorganized, but I think we'll see organization throughout the day follow by some intensification tomorrow.

I don't think we'll see any significant intensification or Karen reaching hurricane status, considering its limited time over favorable conditions.

[somethingfunny]

One is optimistic about favorable scenarios, the other is pessimistic about every TS that seems to encounter 5kts of shear.

I am the latter.

It's always interesting seeing the discussion between Aric and Wxman57, both are very knowledgeable but see the tropics very differently. Aric will say it's on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and Wxman57 will say it's on the verge of opening up into a wave

And if you average them out - it's like the NHC official forecast LOL

Wxman57 and Aric Dunn are like the Avila and Stewart of Storm2k. A classic pair and I couldn't imagine one without the other!

I also tend to agree that something in the middle (a moderate to weak - but enduring - tropical storm) will end up happening.

[SFLcane]

It's always interesting seeing the discussion between Aric and Wxman57, both are very knowledgeable but see the tropics very differently. Aric will say it's on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and Wxman57 will say it's on the verge of opening up into a wave

And if you average them out - it's like the NHC official forecast LOL

Wxman57 and Aric Dunn are like the Avila and Stewart of Storm2k. A classic pair and I couldn't imagine one without the other!

Its funny actually... Stewart comes with 80-90% and then just a few hrs later Avila totally contradicts everything. All jokes aside having meet Stacey a few times he is a great forecaster and i enjoy his discussions.

[shortwave1]

Seems like more of a dry air issue atm then shear. Would anyone happen to have the moisture levels for that region throughout the column?

[SouthDadeFish]

Karen is a mess this morning. There appears to be some pretty substantial vortex tilt, likely due to some mid-level vertical wind shear. I think the dynamical models have the right idea here. There was a chance for Karen to wrap up yesterday, but the mid-level shear prevented a persistent vortex tilt.