ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Things are not looking good for P.R., a convergence is setting up right over the Island, lots of heavy rains for the Island through this evening.

[chris_fit]

You can tell she is strengthening per the recon obs...

Compare the RECON obs from when it first got there to what they are sampling now. A simply look at the colored barbs paints a clear picture - she is strengthening

[GCANE]

Huge high rain-rate donut!

[Hurricaneman]

Huge high rain-rate donut!

https://i.imgur.com/EqvOSS4.png

https://i.imgur.com/OojLh9l.gif

Wouldn’t be surprised if this became a 65mph TS before Puerto Rico landfall

[GCANE]

Looks like that tower is just sucking everything in around it.

[NDG]

Amazing how quickly the UL winds became favorable starting this morning, the models didn't see that coming today, just to show you how unpredictable UL winds can become either in favor or against strengthening.

[GCANE]

Huge high rain-rate donut!

https://i.imgur.com/EqvOSS4.png

https://i.imgur.com/OojLh9l.gif

Wouldn’t be surprised if this became a 65mph TS before Puerto Rico landfall

Not the first time I have seen a TC intensify very quickly on approach to PR.

[Ivanhater]

Aric called it this morning. Recon clearly trumps surface obs.

[SFLcane]

Amazing how quickly the UL winds became favorable starting this morning, the models didn't see that coming today, just to show you how unpredictable UL winds can become either in favor or against strengthening.

UL winds aren't gonna be a problem for a few days...Dry air is next

[rbaker55]

don't see it on the visible but on the IR image there is a dark spot various obvious right about where the center was located. Looks to be intensifying at a good clip. If this stays this way I could see a hurricane before landfall on the south coast of PR.

[chris_fit]

don't see it on the visible but on the IR image there is a dark spot various obvious right about where the center was located. Looks to be intensifying at a good clip. If this stays this way I could see a hurricane before landfall on the south coast of PR.

I think Hurricane might be pushing it - but maybe 50-60mph TS

[AutoPenalti]

Still think mountains of PR will disrupt it before it reaches 65+, the amount of rain will be insane...

[CaribJam]

Puerto Rico had a 6.0 earthquake this am. Double whammy.

I pray for my neighbours in the northeastern Caribbean. Please take all the necessary precautions, prepare, prepare, prepare and stay safe.

[GCANE]

Seeing small towers spinning around a hole.
Lightning galore.

[chris_fit]

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 53 kts (61.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 47 kts (54.1 mph)

Cmon '57 - Just a bite of that crow!

[GCANE]

Coming up to the hole
53 knots FL
47 knots SFMR

[NDG]

Now doubt Karen is now strengthening.

Flight level winds in the SE quadrant so far:

53 knots
(~ 61.0 mph)

[StormLogic]

Karen is really starting to have that look

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 552&y=7301

[GCANE]

That is absolutely the fastest spin up I have ever seen.

[Ivanhater]

Is that dark spot the new center?