ATL: KAREN - Models

[Nuno]

Looks to me the models are still wanting to take it W at least in the short term after it exits the Caribbean. We can "this" and talk ad-nauseum about climatology but you can't will a trough into existence if it's not present just because climatology says it should be there.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the NHC is right on leaning more with the ECM here.

[jlauderdal]

guys, if you model watch like this non stop it will give you a headache. Look at the overall pattern and the ingredients that has to come in place instead of model watching so much.

Having said that, we need only recall Doreen and the unequivocal solution by most early models impacting Florida. It’s tough visualizing the European solution occurring at this time of year.

It is tough to accept the Euro as a real possibility. BUT the NHC is sure showing it in the latter part of the cone with what is the initial turn to the W shown on the Euro.

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

[CourierPR]

Having said that, we need only recall Doreen and the unequivocal solution by most early models impacting Florida. It’s tough visualizing the European solution occurring at this time of year.

It is tough to accept the Euro as a real possibility. BUT the NHC is sure showing it in the latter part of the cone with what is the initial turn to the W shown on the Euro.

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

A local meteorologist told me he relied on the Euro to forecast Dorian's movement and to allay my concern about Dorian impacting south Florida.

[toad strangler]

Having said that, we need only recall Doreen and the unequivocal solution by most early models impacting Florida. It’s tough visualizing the European solution occurring at this time of year.

It is tough to accept the Euro as a real possibility. BUT the NHC is sure showing it in the latter part of the cone with what is the initial turn to the W shown on the Euro.

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

That's pretty much what I posted dude. I'm in agreement. If the NHC is leaning that way then why shouldn't we?

[jlauderdal]

It is tough to accept the Euro as a real possibility. BUT the NHC is sure showing it in the latter part of the cone with what is the initial turn to the W shown on the Euro.

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

A local meteorologist told me he relied on the Euro to forecast Dorian's movement and to allay my concern about Dorian impacting south Florida.

every setup is different so to just rely on one model due to past perfromrance isnt wise...the nhc has made it real easy until at least 11 am, they are going with the euro, they may change their tune but thats unlikely, the euro seems to have the best handle on e setup to thsi point, that can change but i bet we are looking at a west turn at some point and not some out to sea solution, they would have to be wrong by 180 degrees even at 5 days, anyone have an analog for that?

[stormlover2013]

Euro is the best model by far and it's not even close. It will make mistakes because nothing is perfect but it's the Goat of the models!!!!! EURO- Jordan, UKMET- Lebron/Kobe, GFS- Malone lol

[Nuno]

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

A local meteorologist told me he relied on the Euro to forecast Dorian's movement and to allay my concern about Dorian impacting south Florida.

every setup is different so to just rely on one model due to past perfromrance isnt wise...the nhc has made it real easy until at least 11 am, they are going with the euro, they may change their tune but thats unlikely, the euro seems to have the best handle on e setup to thsi point, that can change but i bet we are looking at a west turn at some point and not some out to sea solution, they would have to be wrong by 180 degrees even at 5 days, anyone have an analog for that?

I'd have to check the graphics archive but I'm pretty sure Joaquin in the Bahamas was *very* off from what was initially forecasted five days out.

For Karen, the Euro however hasn't budged one bit. I'm becoming more and more confident in a westward turn occurring at some point. Interactions with Jerry, intensity and the degree of turn, well who knows...

[stormchazer]

Having said that, we need only recall Doreen and the unequivocal solution by most early models impacting Florida. It’s tough visualizing the European solution occurring at this time of year.

It is tough to accept the Euro as a real possibility. BUT the NHC is sure showing it in the latter part of the cone with what is the initial turn to the W shown on the Euro.

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

I said tough but not impossible. My reasoning is based on the time of year and though the Euro is highly reliable, it is not infallible. Look early in the thread at the number of storms to follow this type of track this time of year. I’ll help, it’s a small number. Opinion my own.

[SFLcane]

It is tough to accept the Euro as a real possibility. BUT the NHC is sure showing it in the latter part of the cone with what is the initial turn to the W shown on the Euro.

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

That's pretty much what I posted dude. I'm in agreement. If the NHC is leaning that way then why shouldn't we?

FWI,

Most EPS members now just stall the odds off an eventual recurve in my opinion have gone up.

[toad strangler]

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

That's pretty much what I posted dude. I'm in agreement. If the NHC is leaning that way then why shouldn't we?

FWI,

Most EPS members now just stall the odds off an eventual recurve in my opinion have gone up.

And that would be more in the line of climatology at the location its modeled to turn W. Once again though, as for right now, the NHC says otherwise.

[stormchazer]

why is it tough to accept the euro, its one of the bst modesl here in the medium to long range...when nhc is accepting then it should be easy for the rest of us to accept

A local meteorologist told me he relied on the Euro to forecast Dorian's movement and to allay my concern about Dorian impacting south Florida.

every setup is different so to just rely on one model due to past perfromrance isnt wise...the nhc has made it real easy until at least 11 am, they are going with the euro, they may change their tune but thats unlikely, the euro seems to have the best handle on e setup to thsi point, that can change but i bet we are looking at a west turn at some point and not some out to sea solution, they would have to be wrong by 180 degrees even at 5 days, anyone have an analog for that?

OTS does not require a 180 degree change in models. Much like Doreen, an escape might develop even after a westward move. Frankly these are the best model scenarios to watch as the solutions are many and the likely solution right now, is rare based on past tracks.

[SFLcane]

That's pretty much what I posted dude. I'm in agreement. If the NHC is leaning that way then why shouldn't we?

FWI,

Most EPS members now just stall the odds off an eventual recurve in my opinion have gone up.

And that would be more in the line of climatology at the location its modeled to turn W. Once again though, as for right now, the NHC says otherwise.

Stewart leaned towards the stronger guidance but i would not be surprised to see intensity lowered at 11am to 50-55kt. Even Euro backed off

Just not a favorable environment at all north of the caribbean.

[kevin]

At what time do the runs start each day? Usually when I check these threads the model runs begin with models like GFS & ICON and then EURO is the last one to run (about 1 to 2 hours later). Does anyone have a time slot/period for each of the 4 times the runs initialize (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1176492662272266241

[SFLcane]

Essentially Karen will be " Toast " If it tries to come west once north of the islands. The PVS will shear it

[plasticup]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_tracks_latest.png

Looks to me the models are still wanting to take it W at least in the short term after it exits the Caribbean. We can "this" and talk ad-nauseum about climatology but you can't will a trough into existence if it's not present just because climatology says it should be there.

Yet the Bermuda solution becomes more likely.

[La Sirena]

At what time do the runs start each day? Usually when I check these threads the model runs begin with models like GFS & ICON and then EURO is the last one to run (about 1 to 2 hours later). Does anyone have a time slot/period for each of the 4 times the runs initialize (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z)?

Here’s a quick cheat sheet on the 2 front runners—
GFS 5:30/11:30 a.m. and p.m.
EURO 1:45 a.m. and p.m.

[Nuno]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/12L_tracks_latest.png

Looks to me the models are still wanting to take it W at least in the short term after it exits the Caribbean. We can "this" and talk ad-nauseum about climatology but you can't will a trough into existence if it's not present just because climatology says it should be there.

Yet the Bermuda solution becomes more likely.

Potentially, especially this far out. But not if the ridging is as strong as most of the modeling indicates. Still a long way out though.

[Evil Jeremy]

they would have to be wrong by 180 degrees even at 5 days, anyone have an analog for that?

Tropical Storm Debby, 2012. Will live in infamy. Not making any judgments re; Karen with this example.