ATL: KAREN - Models

[sma10]

0Z Euro: from 27N, 60W, she has moved due west to 27N, 70W as of hour 162 and there looks like there's no stopping her anytime soon! And she may be getting a bit stronger now even though shear is pretty high. .

Larry, tell me if you agree. In an apples to apples comparison with yesterday's 0z, it appears that jerry's movement is fairly similar in speed and direction, but yet karen finds herself turning and retrograding much further east than last night. I feel this might be caused by lack of development in days 2 and 3, as opposed to last night's run. Maybe a stronger karen at the earlier time frames allows her "to wrap up a bit tighter" and move slower?

Perhaps you're right but don't forget that Jerry is a little closer than he was in yesterday's 0Z at the start.

Yes, true.

I cannot help but feel everything will be on a tightwire with this storm. If karen was only slightly slower, she'd be captured and slotted into the sweet spot of the ridge

[sma10]

LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics!

Lol. Dont forget last night from 65W to the texas coast on a straight line

[AJC3]

LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics! After barely missing getting absorbed by Jerry, she stops and then moves west 1500 miles!

Analogous last night's 00Z, just displaced farther east with an even closer call to getting pulled NE past the "point of no return"

[AJC3]

LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics!

Lol. Dont forget last night from 65W to the texas coast on a straight line

Yeah, on the "Amazing Scale", I'd have to place last night's 00Z run just ahead of this one.

[LarryWx]

LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics!

Lol. Dont forget last night from 65W to the texas coast on a straight line

OK, true. So, both were incredible. But this time she was closer to being absorbed by Jerry...within ~600 miles vs ~750 miles last night at closest point.

[AtlanticWind]

The smallest difference in speed of Karen, and Jerry for that matter will make all the difference
on how this all plays out.

Think this is still up in the air .

[AtlanticWind]

Also Jerry seems to be getting sheared apart, wonder if he becomes a naked swirl
if that will have any effect on any potential interaction.

[LarryWx]

Also Jerry seems to be getting sheared apart, wonder if he becomes a naked swirl
if that will have any effect on any potential interaction.

That may slow him down even more/keep him from moving with as much of an easterly component. That happened yesterday.

0Z EPS prelim from my source showing CONUS hitting TCs with less than 1004 SLP: 8 total members(so ~15%, ~same as run from 12 hours ago)

Oct 1: 3 members hit C FL with 2 of them then hitting LA 10/3
Oct 2: 1 Myrtle Beach
Oct 3: 1 GA/SC border; 1 NC OB
Oct 4: 1 FL Keys; 1 S FL

[Florida1118]

Good discussion from the NHC on modeling this morning:

The GFS, GFS-Legacy, UKMET, and HRWF dynamical models take a much weaker and more vertically shallow cyclone northeastward after 48 hours and either continue with that motion through day 5 or dissipate the system. In contrast, the ECMWF and many of its stronger ensemble members stall Karen around days 3-4 and then turn the somewhat stronger and deeper cyclone westward to west-southwestward to the south of a building ridge. Given that Karen is forecast to be stronger and vertically deeper than the weaker models, the current track forecast leans more toward the stronger ECMWF and ECMWF-Ensemble model solutions. The new NHC forecast is to the right of the previous advisory track and slower, especially on days 3-5, but the new track does not extend as far east as the weaker GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models or the consensus models that incorporate those three models.

None of the dynamical models, including the HWRF and HMON hurricane models, show much in the way of strengthening once Karen moves north of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands except for the ECMWF model, despite the very low vertical wind shear conditions that the cyclone will be moving into by 24 hours and beyond. Given Karen's decent wind field and vertical structure, the expected low shear conditions, moist mid-level environment, and SSTs of more than 29 deg C for the next 48 hours or so, forecasting at least slow but steady strengthening seems to be quite reasonable. By days 3-5, the mid-level environment dries out significantly, which the weaker models seem to be keying on. However, if Karen strengthens as currently expected, then the cyclone's robust circulation should be able to mix out any dry air intrusions, allowing for at least additional modest intensification to occur in the 72-120 hour period. The official intensity forecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is basically an average of the weaker dynamical models and the stronger GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models Decay-SHIPS and LGEM.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS stronger through 150 hours - but still weak - at least you can see where Karen is/was

[N2FSU]

6z GFS: Karen definitely stronger


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[SFLcane]

HWRF is back up to a hurricane after exiting the Caribbean.

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS says what 500mb ridge. After turning Karen west it brings a big trough in and sweeps her up and out. The run to run inconsistency with the GFS is a concern and I can see why the NHC is leaning on the Euro right now.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS has been having inconsistencies but I would wager towards the fact that there’s a lot of variables at play now. Disregarding intensity, the average forecast solution has been relatively the same.

[StormLogic]

You cannot simply forecast on if the ridge is going to build or not, or if this or this is off a few miles "it can change everything" blah blah blah. What we should do for now is focus on what's setting up around Karen and what's happening right NOW. What land masses are going to be affected in 24hrs? The MJO index forecast is VERY favorable for the Atlantic. We have a high ridge building over the Eastern United States and it's forecasted to stretch Eastward. We have Jerry setting up to the NE of Karen with something else from the SE of Karen. I'm willing to bet this goes West. Stop watching the models on Karen every day, you will go crazy lol

[stormlover2013]

guys, if you model watch like this non stop it will give you a headache. Look at the overall pattern and the ingredients that has to come in place instead of model watching so much.

[tolakram]

guys, if you model watch like this non stop it will give you a headache. Look at the overall pattern and the ingredients that has to come in place instead of model watching so much.

Why are you in the model thread if all you're going to do is recommend we don't watch models? I suggest you go to the discussion thread if this is stressing you out.

[stormchazer]

guys, if you model watch like this non stop it will give you a headache. Look at the overall pattern and the ingredients that has to come in place instead of model watching so much.

Very true but this is literally the “Model” thread. Watching the models and discussing them is the entire point of this forum.

Having said that, we need only recall Doreen and the unequivocal solution by most early models impacting Florida. It’s tough visualizing the European solution occurring at this time of year.

[toad strangler]

guys, if you model watch like this non stop it will give you a headache. Look at the overall pattern and the ingredients that has to come in place instead of model watching so much.

Having said that, we need only recall Doreen and the unequivocal solution by most early models impacting Florida. It’s tough visualizing the European solution occurring at this time of year.

It is tough to accept the Euro as a real possibility. BUT the NHC is sure showing it in the latter part of the cone with what is the initial turn to the W shown on the Euro.

[StormLogic]

guys, if you model watch like this non stop it will give you a headache. Look at the overall pattern and the ingredients that has to come in place instead of model watching so much.

Why are you in the model thread if all you're going to do is recommend we don't watch models? I suggest you go to the discussion thread if this is stressing you out.

Because when you see "unread post" in here on the index, thinking it's a new model being posted or something actually useful, but it's not, it's just blah blah blah about models that are not even factually sound just yet. Most are not even posting models, But talking about models doing what models do. When we can all clearly see whats going on with the models, especially this far out.