ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

:na:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176457682271854592?s=20

IMO, this is a bit premature for Levi to say before recon samples where the MLC is to see if a new LLC is forming.

[jconsor]

IMHO Levi's tweet is premature. Recon winds already hint that the center is further south near 16.5N, so they have likely not yet found the true center.

:na:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176457682271854592?s=20

[wxman57]

Still a quite poor excuse for tropical storm this morning. St. Croix, just 70 miles away has a south wind at 10 kts. Any tropical storm-force winds, if they do exist at the surface, probably cover the area of about a city block.

[NDG]

IMHO Levi's tweet is premature. Recon winds already hint that the center is further south near 16.5N, so they have likely not yet found the true center.

:na:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176457682271854592?s=20

Unfortunately recon flew south of that area, that's exactly where I think the new LLC is.

AF300 0512A KAREN HDOB 11 20190924
113630 1619N 06548W 8432 01560 0087 +170 +162 289020 021 031 005 00
113700 1619N 06546W 8431 01559 0086 +170 +162 284021 022 031 004 00
113730 1619N 06544W 8438 01552 0088 +165 +163 275019 021 031 005 00
113800 1620N 06542W 8426 01564 0090 +163 +163 265019 019 028 006 00
113830 1620N 06540W 8433 01556 0089 +164 +162 259017 019 030 005 00
113900 1620N 06538W 8429 01561 0085 +171 +162 257019 020 030 003 00
113930 1620N 06536W 8439 01549 0081 +175 +162 254018 019 030 001 00
114000 1620N 06534W 8429 01563 0078 +182 +163 254019 019 028 001 00
114030 1620N 06533W 8430 01561 0081 +180 +164 249019 019 027 001 00
114100 1620N 06531W 8436 01556 0080 +180 +167 230022 023 026 000 00
114130 1621N 06529W 8428 01564 0081 +178 +169 224025 026 024 000 00
114200 1621N 06527W 8435 01558 0084 +175 +172 217027 027 023 000 00
114230 1621N 06525W 8429 01566 0087 +174 +172 213029 030 023 000 00
114300 1621N 06523W 8431 01565 0088 +173 //// 215030 030 023 000 01
114330 1621N 06521W 8434 01563 //// +171 //// 216029 030 023 000 01
114400 1621N 06519W 8430 01567 0088 +175 +174 215034 035 022 000 01
114430 1621N 06518W 8433 01565 //// +175 //// 215034 035 023 000 01
114500 1622N 06516W 8432 01567 //// +172 //// 213033 034 023 000 01
114530 1622N 06514W 8435 01566 //// +171 //// 209032 034 022 000 01
114600 1622N 06512W 8426 01575 //// +170 //// 210029 031 021 000 01

[Aric Dunn]

Recon definitely showing a center reforming to south with that strong mid level circ. Very clear from recon. Old circ should elongate out

[NDG]

X is where many of us think the new LLC is or has formed.

[GCANE]

Recon reports 50 mm/hr rain rate.
Likely higher in the tower they passed close by.

[jconsor]

The center is likely closer to 150 miles away....

Still a quite poor excuse for tropical storm this morning. St. Croix, just 70 miles away has a south wind at 10 kts. Any tropical storm-force winds, if they do exist at the surface, probably cover the area of about a city block.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen6.JPG

[northjaxpro]

Center reformation.

[wxman57]

I'm not buying a center reformation yet. Pressures down there are higher than farther north (1008-1009mb). More like a trof axis extending south from the weak low center. Of course, its possible the center could reform. Recon still having a hard time finding TS winds. Looks like max FL wind only 36 kts.

[Aric Dunn]

Center reformation.

Yeppers. Lets see what recon does interms of flight path now

[Blown Away]

X is where many of us think the new LLC is or has formed.

https://i.imgur.com/f088RRF.jpg

If that is the case, that @100 mile S reform will likely cause that W turn at a lower latitude and may find better conditions for strengthening. Models yesterday that turned Karen W @26N had stronger Karen than models that turnedW above 28N

[Aric Dunn]

One thing that is likely going to iccur later this evening and over night... is the center bouncing around PR. With a re formtion most likely off the north coast. Turbulent flow and upslope on the north side of PR will create localized pressure drops and will either cause the center to reform or do the fun to watch bounce around.

[cycloneye]

I am sitting in San Juan PR so keep those comments about where the center is.

[GCANE]

Looks like an evil twin is forming.
I hate it when that happens.

[NDG]

Recon finds the windshift SE of last fix, pressure is higher.

[SFLcane]

IMHO Levi's tweet is premature. Recon winds already hint that the center is further south near 16.5N, so they have likely not yet found the true center.

:na:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176457682271854592?s=20

Hi Jconsor, If that were the true center winds would be from the SE on the current pass.

[jconsor]

It could be that there are two mesovorts within a broad center, and that the southernmost one is in the process of taking over. Hard to tell until we get another recon pass in a few hours.

IMHO Levi's tweet is premature. Recon winds already hint that the center is further south near 16.5N, so they have likely not yet found the true center.

:na:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1176457682271854592?s=20

Hi Jconsor, If that were the true center winds would be from the SE on the current pass.

[Frank2]

Fewer models showing any significant westward turn than yesterday - apparently enough of a trough ahead of the next high to kick out both Jerry and Karen...

[SFLcane]

Recon finds the windshift SE of last fix, pressure is higher.

https://i.imgur.com/edyjFgv.png

Looks like basically an elongated weak low on the NE Edge of the convection.