ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[aperson]

convection is improving as well as low level moisture, and the low level center is relocating to tuck into the building convection. Recon moved 1009 -> 1006 between passes with a much broader area of lower SLP



We will see if Karen maintains its structure sufficiently as it passes over/near PR

[LarryWx]

IF Karen gets absorbed by Jerry, it wouldn't be the first Karen to be absorbed by another TC, believe it or not! It happened 4 Karens ago:

From wiki: "Hurricane Iris of the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season interacted with Hurricane Humberto, before interacting with and absorbing Tropical Storm Karen on September 3.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1995.png

[sma10]

IF Karen gets absorbed by Jerry, it wouldn't be the first Karen to be absorbed by another TC, believe it or not! It happened 4 Karens ago:

From wiki: "Hurricane Iris of the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season interacted with Hurricane Humberto, before interacting with and absorbing Tropical Storm Karen on September 3.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1995.png

I actually remember this, believe it or not. If I'm not mistaken it occurred during a very active period of a very active year, when we had one cape verde after another spinning simultaneously in the atlantic. But it wasn't particularly "exciting" because it occurred well out at sea, no threat to land

[AtlanticWind]

It appears the shear has lessened considerably this morning.

[aperson]

The 0z GFS has this as a naked swirl on simulated satellite IR but at 06z it's becoming tucked under convection and improving instead going by actual satellite IR.




Not sure I buy the lower intensities on these 00z runs.

[GCANE]

6.3 magnitude earthquake of the north coast of Puerto Rico late Monday evening. No tsunami expected however. Weird event before Karen passing through tomorrow.

Shallow too, 10.0km deep.
I think this is the 3rd or 4th time I have seen a quake in the Carib with a TC closeby.
Also seen it in the WPAC & SPAC.
Irene was off the east coast when the quake hit that cracked the Washington Monument.

[GCANE]

Very strong rotation indicated on rain-rate imagery.

[GCANE]

Looking at IR, it could be starting to build an eyewall.
Would love to see a 37GHz image. Not sure when the next pass is.

[aperson]

Looking at IR, it could be starting to build an eyewall.
Would love to see a 37GHz image. Not sure when the next pass is.

I'm thinking the same thing looking at TJUA radar http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

[Stormi]

Looking at IR, it could be starting to build an eyewall.
Would love to see a 37GHz image. Not sure when the next pass is.

I'm thinking the same thing looking at TJUA radar http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

Certainly appears so...incredible

[GCANE]

Very high CAPE air to PR and beyond.
Should be enough solar diabatic heating over PR to wipe out any convective cap.
Given the strong pressure drop recon was last seeing, IMHO RI is not out of the question.

[GCANE]

Rapid Scan Floaters are up

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 000&y=1000

[GCANE]

Looks like good cirrus outflow in all quads, an anticyclone has formed over this.
Lightning strikes showing a ring pattern.

[Stormi]

Looks like it is intensifying to me

[chris_fit]

Looks like it is intensifying to me

NHC agrees and even bumped up the long range forecast

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Back as a TS.

[GCANE]

Feeder band coming in from that high CAPE air to the north.

[jlauderdal]

stacy stewart going all-in on the euro, rare for them to key so heavily on one model but as we can all see from GCANE'S posts this morning, the system is looking better and the environment is favorable so why not throw out the others and go with the euro...king euro it is until further notice, folks in PR might get more out of this than they thought yesterday

[jlauderdal]

btw, this is all bad news for wxman57...no days off this week and bones goes back to storage, maybe bones comes out next week

[drezee]

Radar seemed to show LLC getting sucked into convection a few hours ago. If that is indeed the case, then PR needs to prepare for more than a weak TS...