ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Equatorward Outflow Channel is setting up.

https://i.imgur.com/ifeKjrp.gif

yeah if this were to move just 100 miles west it would get vented in the short term. and head through the mona passage.

[GCANE]

Its tracking into low shear.

[GCANE]

[SoupBone]

Its tracking into low shear.

https://i.imgur.com/1dqe1v8.gif

It's a tiny window of low shear, but the bigger question is how in the hell is is doing anything with 50-60 knot shear? Wow...

[GCANE]

Its tracking into low shear.

https://i.imgur.com/1dqe1v8.gif

It's a tiny window of low shear, but the bigger question is how in the hell is is doing anything with 50-60 knot shear? Wow...

Convection fires off on shear, it just doesn't sustain, it'll wash out in a couple hours.
However, if a LLC vort is on a sharp shear gradient, it can sustain convection.
That is what is happening here.

[SFLcane]

Its tracking into low shear.

https://i.imgur.com/1dqe1v8.gif

It's a tiny window of low shear, but the bigger question is how in the hell is is doing anything with 50-60 knot shear? Wow...

That shear plot is a snap shot that 50kt should move away with Jerry.

[GCANE]

IR showing multiple tiny towers embedded in the larger convection donut.

[sma10]

I think the little things mean a lot right now. There are huge long term track implications (much larger than usual) in monitoring Karen's Eastward progression. Any trend to the east means more interaction down the road with Jerry, and thus a suboptimal placement in the building ridge. To me, her survival and long term strength will hinge on whether she falls left or right of 3 day track

[GCANE]

About a 3mb pressure differential relative to ambient.

[Blown Away]

Last few visible frames you can clearly see the circulation and the convection trying to pull in over the top (@15.8n/65.8W)... Looks NNW movement to me...

[GCANE]

Donut started at 21:10Z. Its 3 hrs now.

[jlauderdal]

Ring structure is getting bigger.
Its trying to create a surface low and warm core.
If this keeps going for another couple hours, this will ramp up quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/BJ3kxjH.png

it cant ramp up too much, there is too much shear pressing on the system...we have to be careful looking at cool IR presentations

This is not IR, its rain rate.
High rain rate creates quick mid-level latent heating creating a warm core which is the key ingredient for a TC.

Correct, rain rate is what is being measured in that presentation

[GCANE]

Looks like recon is going for the center of the donut.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like recon is going for the center of the donut.

looks like they want some boston cream

[GCANE]

Lightning galore.
Getting more symmetrical.

[GCANE]

I remember about 10 years ago a TC went RI just before it hit PR.

[gatorcane]

That a vigorous 850mb vortex. Hard to believe she dies. Environment north of PR looks favorable with a huge upper anticyclone. Think the models are going to start ramping her up more in subsequent runs, once Jerry is out of the picture.

[Buck]

That a vigorous 850mb vortex. Hard to believe she dies. Environment north of PR looks favorable with a huge upper anticyclone. Think the models are going to start ramping her up more in subsequent runs, once Jerry is out of the picture.

https://i.postimg.cc/qqJb7V7t/wg8vor.gif

if Jerry ever leaves.

[SFLcane]

That a vigorous 850mb vortex. Hard to believe she dies. Environment north of PR looks favorable with a huge upper anticyclone. Think the models are going to start ramping her up more in subsequent runs, once Jerry is out of the picture.

https://i.postimg.cc/qqJb7V7t/wg8vor.gif

The 18z Euro shears it to death TC is under northerly shear from the ridge.

[SFLcane]

Jerry isn't out it's not a favorable pattern if the ULAC is shearing it.