ATL: KAREN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#501 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:13 pm

LarryWx wrote:18Z ICON lags Jerry more (consistent with his recent lack of motion) and this later results in a merge between Karen and Jerry!


Now this would be something, wouldn't it? If I see the Euro or GFS show this, it'll have my attention. Was Karen a wave in this run?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#502 Postby Cat5James » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:15 pm

18Z GFS showing a stronger, more organized storm before the westward curve
0 likes   
Top
Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#503 Postby Cat5James » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:20 pm

Also looks like Jerry swings around and follows behind Karen... interesting GFS run
0 likes   
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#504 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:21 pm

SoupBone wrote:
LarryWx wrote:18Z ICON lags Jerry more (consistent with his recent lack of motion) and this later results in a merge between Karen and Jerry!


Now this would be something, wouldn't it? If I see the Euro or GFS show this, it'll have my attention. Was Karen a wave in this run?


Karen was a weak closed surface low. Karen got eaten up by the stronger Jerry.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#505 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:22 pm

I do believe 18z GFS is about to send Jerry back WEST!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#506 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:23 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:I do believe 18z GFS is about to send Jerry back WEST!!

Scratch that...maybe it follows Lorenzo.
1 likes   
Top
CreponChris
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 22
Age: 36
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:27 am
Contact:
Contact CreponChris

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#507 Postby CreponChris » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:24 pm

ECMWF 12Z Tropical Atlantic Deep-Layer Wind Shear
Let me know if anyone wants to see the 00Z , as well but the 12Z anyway finished computing at least just about an hour ago or a bit more.
Looks like a close call... at times there's seemingly enough open space with a lack of shear to let the storm just shoot up North but I'm wondering what's going to keep it so relatively weak according to these models. Thanks all.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#508 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:33 pm

18z GFS still very weak, but the circulation is more defined than previous runs...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#509 Postby fci » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:38 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I don't give a lot of credence to these models on intensity beyond a few days. That said I cannot remember the time a Storm got east of the Bahamas, got caught under a ridge even in early Oct. and started coming westward and fell apart, quite the contrary. The minor one good thing is that the SST's around the Bahamas have cooled from all the storm activity upwelling cooler water.


AJC3 had several posts about the analog of storms on this position
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
Top
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1710
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#510 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:50 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z GFS still very weak, but the circulation is more defined than previous runs...


It looked to me on this run that the GFS wanted to develop Karen so badly lol
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#511 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:52 pm

GFS is blowing out little vorts in all directions like a Roman candle
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3999
Age: 61
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: Ballston Spa, New York
Contact:
Contact AJC3

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#512 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:06 pm

fci wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I don't give a lot of credence to these models on intensity beyond a few days. That said I cannot remember the time a Storm got east of the Bahamas, got caught under a ridge even in early Oct. and started coming westward and fell apart, quite the contrary. The minor one good thing is that the SST's around the Bahamas have cooled from all the storm activity upwelling cooler water.


AJC3 had several posts about the analog of storms on this position


A few pages back from early this morning, if you're interested. The discussion was in the context of the 00Z ECM solution, which sent a well-defined TC nearly all the way to the Texas coast before the run ended at H240. There are better analogs for storms that don't move as far west, and are a little farther south, such as Inez, Dora, and Kate. Most are earlier in the season, with Kate being a notable (historical) exception.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120602&start=340
1 likes   
Top
Tailspin

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#513 Postby Tailspin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:07 pm

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1176259204715184128





Philippe Papin
@pppapin
·
41m
WISHE stands for wind-induced surface heat exchange.

A weaker vortex has weaker winds & is less able to generate sufficient sensible & latent heat fluxes necessary to maintain persistent convection.



Philippe Papin
@pppapin
So I'd argue the short term evolution of #Karen is important. If Karen can maintain a coherent vortex as it moves north through Puerto Rico, that would bode better for its survival in the medium range. Given how stochastic convective processes can be, I'd say it is a toss up
8:36 AM · Sep 24, 2019·Twitter Web App
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#514 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:59 pm

Image

18z Guidance... That's a spread!!! The NHC/OFCL staying with a less extreme west turn for now and not going with their BFF TVCN...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#515 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:05 pm

Image
18z Intensity Guidance... Significant rise from 06z & 12z... NHC likes the IVCN, let's see if they up the 5 day intensity to Cat 1 at 11pm...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
plasticup

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#516 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:12 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/nL8WFGK.jpg

18z Guidance... That's a spread!!! The NHC/OFCL staying with a less extreme west turn for now and not going with their BFF TVCN...


Bermuda is getting a little sick of this. NHC probability of TS winds up to 15% - highest of any landmass for this storm - and some of the models are trending away from this westerly curve. Not what we want to see.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#517 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:28 pm

18z HWRF keeps Karen very weak through 126 hours... The model pulses, you can see it wants to build it up...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#518 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:35 pm

Image
00z Intensity Guidance... Coming down, NHC may begin backing off intensity in next few advisories if this becomes a trend...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#519 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:45 pm

Image
00z Track Guidance... For now, Karen or the storm formerly known as Karen is making a turn to the W towards the Bahamas/CONUS...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: KAREN - Models

#520 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:46 pm

18Z Euro 90 (end of run) similar to 12Z 96
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests