ATL: KAREN - Models

[LarryWx]

But if only 25% say it will head towards FL and the other 75% say it won't, I'd still bet on the 75% - only a 1 in 4 chance it will come this way are not good odds, even in sports. No doubt the 75% are still picking up the trough left behind by Dorian/Humberto and now Jerry - those kind of deep troughs linger for weeks as one did in 1981 after large Hurricane Emily left a trough that deflected 4 CV hurricanes...

Frank

Hopefully, you’re right! Time will tell.

I do have a little bit of good news. The 6Z EPS, which only goes out to 144, is not quite as active as the 150 of the 0Z. But it is still a bit worrisome.

[sma10]

The 0Z EPS has 12 CONUS hits (~25% of its members). Not good news as that’s tied for the second most I’ve seen yet on any EPS with the most being 18.
(Note that more show up but a couple that hit FL are actually from Jerry believe it or not.)

There are 3 near the 0Z operational over S FL and 1 south over Cuba. However, the highest concentration is actually to the north over C FL, where there are 5. There are 3 over N FL and 1 over GA.

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2019-09-23-00Z_240_36.642_269.916_18.978_301.81_MSLP_Surface_tracks.png

During Jerry, doing these twice daily analyses, the hit % was always around 10-15%, but there was a sense of security in knowing that the threatening tracks were in disagreement with the OP run.

Now we are getting 25% hit, but most unsettling is that the OP run is very much in consistent agreement

[toad strangler]

But if only 25% say it will head towards FL and the other 75% say it won't, I'd still bet on the 75% - only a 1 in 4 chance it will come this way are not good odds, even in sports. No doubt the 75% are still picking up the trough left behind by Dorian/Humberto and now Jerry - those kind of deep troughs linger for weeks as one did in 1981 after large Hurricane Emily left a trough that deflected 4 CV hurricanes...

Frank

You are banking on general climo for any W moving system from the far E part of the basin which is a good position to take with such a anomalous MODELED set up.

[Blown Away]

If you generally want to know what the NHC is thinking during each model cycle, look at the TVCN for track guidance and the IVCN for intensity guidance. These consensus models are usually followed, not exactly, but generally pretty closely.

It helped me so I don’t get to worked up over all these models flopping and ensembles madness...

[LarryWx]

But if only 25% say it will head towards FL and the other 75% say it won't, I'd still bet on the 75% - only a 1 in 4 chance it will come this way are not good odds, even in sports. No doubt the 75% are still picking up the trough left behind by Dorian/Humberto and now Jerry - those kind of deep troughs linger for weeks as one did in 1981 after large Hurricane Emily left a trough that deflected 4 CV hurricanes...

Frank

Hopefully, you’re right! Time will tell.

I do have a little bit of good news. The 6Z EPS, which only goes out to 144, is not quite as active as the 150 of the 0Z. But it is still a bit worrisome.

I do need to clarify something about the 75% that don’t hit FL. Most of those are nondevelopers rather than recurvers. So, the better hope may be that Karen is weak rather than a recurve.

[MetroMike]

06z HWRF is back to having a pretty intense hurricane.

Yes it does but it’s important to mention that it basically follows a Jerry path OTS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z HWRF is back to having a pretty intense hurricane.

Yes it does but it’s important to mention that it basically follows a Jerry path OTS.

Not really, the HWRF/HMON generally speaking score quite lowly in terms of track. The HWRF usually does quite well with intensity, but given that Karen's barely a tropical cyclone it's probably struggling in the short term by ramping up the intensity too quickly.

The UKMET is too strong, too soon with the ridge, to the point where Jerry gets trapped and gets looped back around while interacting with Karen.

ECMWF/GFS are consistent with track.

[sma10]

06z HWRF is back to having a pretty intense hurricane.

Yes it does but it’s important to mention that it basically follows a Jerry path OTS.

Correct. Both hurricane models, HWRF and HMON show no hint of the blocking ridge depicted by the globals. They just simply start Karen on a general northerly path and continue unabated

[LarryWx]

There’s a little bit of good news. The 6Z EPS is not quite as active as the 0Z though it is still a bit worrisome.

The 6Z EPS is showing that no more than ~1/3 of the members are an actual TC at hour 144. I think this illustrates the biggest hope as of now, lack of strength rather than recurving safely OTS. But who’s to say that over the next couple of days that recurving doesn’t become a more favored model solution as we know that kind of trend could occur.

[jdray]

At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?

More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964). And for late September/early October, from a climatological standpoint, this would be pretty astounding.

https://i.imgur.com/VZPtH4x.jpg

Don't you dare put that Dora analog on me.

I am curious to see how strong the blocking gets though, not liking the setup though so far.

The 2019-09-23 06Z UKMet is showing similar to the 2019-09-23 00Z Euro Ensembles, both showing the blocking high at around 28-32N

[Frank P]

At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?

More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964). And for late September/early October, from a climatological standpoint, this would be pretty astounding.

https://i.imgur.com/VZPtH4x.jpg

Don't you dare put that Dora analog on me.

In the year 2019 September is the new August.. climatology might no longer apply...

[Cunxi Huang]

00Z EPS w/ RTOFS SST.

[jdray]

More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964). And for late September/early October, from a climatological standpoint, this would be pretty astounding.

https://i.imgur.com/VZPtH4x.jpg

Don't you dare put that Dora analog on me.

In the year 2019 September is the new August.. climatology might no longer apply...

Climatology also only goes back so far with "accurate" records.
If you go back further, it does look like NE Florida had more of a hurricane history than most would think, and the vast majority of these seem to be September-October time frames.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/history/

[LarryWx]

The 12Z ICON illustrates well how Karen could be influenced differently by Jerry if his low level swirl lingers longer than most non UKMET models have shown.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS not impressed with Karen through 102 hours

[stormlover2013]

this pattern is so weird right now, it's more of a august patter and sept for Louisiana and Texas

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with an upper anticyclone at 120 hours yet no strengthening? Vibes of Humberto here...

[toad strangler]

"Karen? Who Dat?" - 12zGFS

[SouthFLTropics]

I can’t put much faith in the GFS after what it did with Humberto. How long did it insist that it was going into the GOM as a puff of clouds before it got onboard with the Atlantic scenario?

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS is much weaker, doesn't get as far NE before being shunted west, and is a decent clip farther south of the previous couple runs when it does make that westward motion. But essentially nothing at 144 hours.