ATL: KAREN - Models

[TheStormExpert]

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

https://i.imgur.com/vEkAiaE.jpg

Indeed Betsy and Ike were earlier in the hurricane season but the pattern across the western Atlantic into the eastern US will be very much like the middle of the summer, fairly unusual for this time of the year.

https://i.imgur.com/CnHqZcV.png

What makes it even more unusual is the negative NAO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z HWRF is back to having a pretty intense hurricane.

[NDG]

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

https://i.imgur.com/vEkAiaE.jpg

Indeed Betsy and Ike were earlier in the hurricane season but the pattern across the western Atlantic into the eastern US will be very much like the middle of the summer, fairly unusual for this time of the year.

https://i.imgur.com/CnHqZcV.png

What makes it even more unusual is the negative NAO.

Yep, I've been saying that also all over twitter of how unusual it is with a big Greenland block setting up this weekend, but I guess the unusual deep trough in the western US is the main driver here.

[NDG]

06z HWRF is back to having a pretty intense hurricane.

That's a very good possibility, Karen will have much better UL winds north of PR for it to become at least a Cat 1 hurricane. IMO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z HWRF is back to having a pretty intense hurricane.

That's a very good possibility, Karen will have much better UL winds north of PR for it to become at least a Cat 1 hurricane. IMO.

I think it's overdone. Has a hurricane before reaching Puerto Rico even. Considering Karen's barely a tropical cyclone, I doubt that.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF is back to having a pretty intense hurricane.

Also may bring Cat 1 hurricane to PR.

[SFLcane]

06z guidance...

[chaser1]

Assuming Karen survives it's whirlwind Caribbean cruise, the strength of that E. Seaboard high might well be strong enough to push the storm SW from the Atlantic back over Cuba and into the far N.W. Caribbean again? Would certainly be an interesting track; One that would potentially spare Florida if that were to come to fruition. My big question is whether that large mid level high will truly extend that far east - all that fast?? Just thinking that a quicker track north of P.R. could still leave a "stage right" exist behind Jerry. Boy, when wasn't timing the crux that played into most CONUS impacts?

[NDG]

06z HWRF is back to having a pretty intense hurricane.

That's a very good possibility, Karen will have much better UL winds north of PR for it to become at least a Cat 1 hurricane. IMO.

I think it's overdone. Has a hurricane before reaching Puerto Rico even. Considering Karen's barely a tropical cyclone, I doubt that.

Notice that I did not mentioned that while S of P.R., I dismissed that. I do think it will start intensifying while tracking near P.R. & V.I. as UL conditions start improving.

[tolakram]

I'll believe the euro once Karen is in a lot better shape, hopefully well past Puerto Rico.

Euro


UK


GFS

[toad strangler]

I'll believe the euro once Karen is in a lot better shape, hopefully well past Puerto Rico.

Same scenario as Dorian except Karen has a better chance of going POOF before she can escape the graveyard IMO

[LarryWx]

The 0Z EPS has 12 CONUS hits (~25% of its members). Not good news as that’s tied for the second most I’ve seen yet on any EPS with the most being 18.
(Note that more show up but a couple that hit FL are actually from Jerry believe it or not.)

There are 3 near the 0Z operational over S FL and 1 south over Cuba. However, the highest concentration is actually to the north over C FL, where there are 5. There are 3 over N FL and 1 over GA.

[toad strangler]

Just noticed that the 0Z CMC still sends Karen OTS

[Frank2]

But if only 25% say it will head towards FL and the other 75% say it won't, I'd still bet on the 75% - only a 1 in 4 chance it will come this way are not good odds, even in sports. No doubt the 75% are still picking up the trough left behind by Dorian/Humberto and now Jerry - those kind of deep troughs linger for weeks as one did in 1981 after large Hurricane Emily left a trough that deflected 4 CV hurricanes...

Frank

[p1nheadlarry]

https://i.imgur.com/05BsNA6.gif

72 hour trend for SLP and 500MB height for the ECM. The model appears to have gone toward a slightly more progressive, less blocky pattern. Note the eastern CONUS/western ATLC ridge looks a little flatter and farther east, while the huge central Atlantic trough progged to catch Lorenzo-to-be has shifted eastward, allowing the TC to enter the picture.

What would the ramifications of this be, if any?
I notice that Lorenzo seems to make a sharp turn to the north mostly because Jerry's remains slow down considerably this run.

I don't think much. There's just too much of a weakness out there for L-T-B not to get caught and turn poleward. The long wave pattern in the atmosphere doesn't usually support having a strong ridge all the way from the eastern CONUS into the central Atlantic without some sort of weakness somewhere in between, especially this time of year.

Maybe increased height tendencies due to the negative vort advection as Jerry dips out?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

https://i.imgur.com/vEkAiaE.jpg

This is an interesting area


https://imgur.com/a/lXqRc1I

Possibly some sort of pattern that repeats itself once so often.

[p1nheadlarry]

At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?

Another thing to add is that we've been in this -AO (or NAO if you prefer) for a while now, which usually means weaker zonal component of the polar jet. Would not be surprised if a day or so it doesn't progress as far west as these early model runs suggest, just like with Dorian. Also factoring climo here.

[EasyTiger]

The setup this year is just plain weird. We typically have a front in SE Texas by now, but it doesn't look like anything is on the horizon until October. Very similar setup to 2005 with Rita being a late season storm. IDK....

[SFLcane]

But if only 25% say it will head towards FL and the other 75% say it won't, I'd still bet on the 75% - only a 1 in 4 chance it will come this way are not good odds, even in sports. No doubt the 75% are still picking up the trough left behind by Dorian/Humberto and now Jerry - those kind of deep troughs linger for weeks as one did in 1981 after large Hurricane Emily left a trough that deflected 4 CV hurricanes...

Frank

The GFS and the EURO are in rather good agreement that a potent high pressure system will be in place likely blocking Karen from heading out to sea. Subject to change

[supercane4867]

If the 00z euro verifies, Karen could end up in Mexico without making any CONUS landfalls.