ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like its now a given this will track into the GoM.
Models very consistent in Jerry creating the PVS slice into a ULL which will create the blocking Bermuda High.
If it goes thru the Straits, good chances this will be a major.

[GCANE]

It may not look pretty with the vorts tilted to the south.
But it's tracking into high CAPE and an UL High with a ULL to its NE to help outflow.
Enough to keep it chugging for now on a due north heading.

[otowntiger]

It may not look pretty with the vorts tilted to the south.
But it's tracking into high CAPE and an UL High with a ULL to its NE to help outflow.
Enough to keep it chugging for now on a due north heading.

Judging by what I can see on satellite almost looks like Karen has dissipated? It seems there is no convection at all.

[AJC3]

It may not look pretty with the vorts tilted to the south.
But it's tracking into high CAPE and an UL High with a ULL to its NE to help outflow.
Enough to keep it chugging for now on a due north heading.

Judging by what I can see on satellite almost looks like Karen has dissipated? It seems there is no convection at all.

For now, it's essentially a highly sheared low level swirl that's firing off minimal convection. I think the 5 AM TCD is right on - this is more than likely a TD now, with barely enough convection to hold onto being classifiable. It won't do any strengthening for the next couple of days, and will probably struggle to remain a TC at that.

[otowntiger]

It may not look pretty with the vorts tilted to the south.
But it's tracking into high CAPE and an UL High with a ULL to its NE to help outflow.
Enough to keep it chugging for now on a due north heading.

Judging by what I can see on satellite almost looks like Karen has dissipated? It seems there is no convection at all.

For now, it's essentially a highly sheared low level swirl that's firing off minimal convection. I think the 5 AM TCD is right on - this is more than likely a TD now, with barely enough convection to hold onto being classifiable. It won't do any strengthening for the next couple of days, and will probably struggle to remain a TC at that.

Since it’s in such bad shape right now and shear expected for another 24 hours is it possible that it becomes an open wave and then just dissipates?

[hurricaneCW]

Judging by what I can see on satellite almost looks like Karen has dissipated? It seems there is no convection at all.

For now, it's essentially a highly sheared low level swirl that's firing off minimal convection. I think the 5 AM TCD is right on - this is more than likely a TD now, with barely enough convection to hold onto being classifiable. It won't do any strengthening for the next couple of days, and will probably struggle to remain a TC at that.

Since it’s in such bad shape right now and shear expected for another 24 hours is it possible that it becomes an open wave and then just dissipates?

It's possible though models suggest it sticks around until it reaches a better environment. Euro was much stronger with it tonight, which tells me she won't go away.

[NDG]

A few pop up showers have developed on the eastern side of Karen's circulation this morning but I doubt there's still any TS force winds this morning.

[wxman57]

The couple of visible satellite images I have indicate that Karen may have lost its circulation.

[Do_For_Love]

It was only a month or so ago that Dorian was struggling to strengthen in the Caribbean. People were calling for dissipation, it won't make it past Hispaniola, etc. Then it became one of the strongest recorded hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

All I'm saying is, the models are clearly picking up on potential here. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think it has a decent shot at development.

[wxman57]

It was only a month or so ago that Dorian was struggling to strengthen in the Caribbean. People were calling for dissipation, it won't make it past Hispaniola, etc. Then it became one of the strongest recorded hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

All I'm saying is, the models are clearly picking up on potential here. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think it has a decent shot at development.

I didn't say it won't develop, but that the circulation appears to have dissipated. It's quite a bit weaker than Dorian was in the region. Shear is a lot stronger there now. My 7-day track has it threatening the northern Bahamas, assuming it survives.

[SFLcane]

It was only a month or so ago that Dorian was struggling to strengthen in the Caribbean. People were calling for dissipation, it won't make it past Hispaniola, etc. Then it became one of the strongest recorded hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

All I'm saying is, the models are clearly picking up on potential here. I'm not a meteorologist, but I think it has a decent shot at development.

I didn't say it won't develop, but that the circulation appears to have dissipated. It's quite a bit weaker than Dorian was in the region. Shear is a lot stronger there now. My 7-day track has it threatening the northern Bahamas, assuming it survives.

Hey 57... Threatening the northern bahamas? That sounds like your implying it might recurve all together away from FL and the GOM. Very strong ridging being show by the models. Care to share intensity in the bahamas?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1176091962681778177

[GCANE]

Rain rate was pretty high about 2.5 hrs ago.
Its got a good infeed.

[GCANE]

Off the scale on microwave

This puppy is not going to give up anytime soon.

[wxman57]

Hey 57... Threatening the northern bahamas? That sounds like your implying it might recurve all together away from FL and the GOM. Very strong ridging being show by the models. Care to share intensity in the bahamas?

Not sure how you came to that conclusion. It may be moving due west or south or west toward the northern Bahamas in 6-7 days. That puts both FL and Gulf in its path. Intensity? I'd say maybe somewhere between a tropical wave and a strong hurricane is most likely.

[SFLcane]

Hey 57... Threatening the northern bahamas? That sounds like your implying it might recurve all together away from FL and the GOM. Very strong ridging being show by the models. Care to share intensity in the bahamas?

Not sure how you came to that conclusion. It may be moving due west or south or west toward the northern Bahamas in 6-7 days. That puts both FL and Gulf in its path. Intensity? I'd say maybe somewhere between a tropical wave and a strong hurricane is most likely.

That is great lol.. Thx for the quick responce just wanted to know your thoughts on it. I appreciate it

[wxman57]

There could be a little swirl near 14.4N, 64.3W. If Karen still has an LLC, then it would be around there.

[NDG]

Circulation still looks closed but the LLC is definitely weaker this morning. Pop up convection on its eastern quadrant continues to increase this morning.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1176099755224645632

[NDG]

Recon is finding TS force winds on the NE quadrant of the Karen, now lets see if indeed it still has a well defined closed circulation or not.