ATL: KAREN - Models

[sma10]

By the keys now

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190923/a0d60a20f11d9fd49a2100aac4bf3194.png


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Euro sticking hard to this solution. 4 solid days of south-of-west motion in late sept. Wow

[AJC3]

https://i.imgur.com/05BsNA6.gif

72 hour trend for SLP and 500MB height for the ECM. The model appears to have gone toward a slightly more progressive, less blocky pattern. Note the eastern CONUS/western ATLC ridge looks a little flatter and farther east, while the huge central Atlantic trough progged to catch Lorenzo-to-be has shifted eastward, allowing the TC to enter the picture.

What would the ramifications of this be, if any?
I notice that Lorenzo seems to make a sharp turn to the north mostly because Jerry's remains slow down considerably this run.

I don't think much. There's just too much of a weakness out there for L-T-B not to get caught and turn poleward. The long wave pattern in the atmosphere doesn't usually support having a strong ridge all the way from the eastern CONUS into the central Atlantic without some sort of weakness somewhere in between, especially this time of year.

[kevin]

Surprised to see the consistency in the models in terms of path this early on. Let's see if it stays this way. Talking about the intensity forecast, remember Dorian. About this time period before Dorian made landfall almost all members 'only' showed a tropical storm to weak cat 1 (GFS operational even fell apart before reaching the Bahamas). Models have a hard time with the intensity of small storms and I noticed that many of the global models seem to underestimate long term intensity in general.

[sma10]

I think this sucker is going to make it all the way to Texas

[AxaltaRacing24]

Surprised to see the consistency in the models in terms of parh this early on. Let's see if it stays this way. Talking about the intensity forecast, remember Dorian. About this time period before Dorian made landfall almost all members showed a tropical storm to weak cat 1 (GFs operational even fell apart before reaching the Bahamas). Models have a hard time with the intensity of small storms and I noticed that many of the global models seem to underestimate long term intensity in general.

I feel that some of this agreement is due to the turn being only 72-96 hours away from establishing itself. That is when the ridge would build over the system.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think this sucker is going to make it all the way to Texas

possibly would be mexico.

[sma10]

At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?

[Cpv17]

I think this sucker is going to make it all the way to Texas

possibly would be mexico.

Northern Mexico or South Texas. Hard to tell, but I’d go with far Northern Mexico. Brownsville area would take a beating though I bet.

[AJC3]

At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?

More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964). And for late September/early October, from a climatological standpoint, this would be pretty astounding.

[kevin]

At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?

More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964).

https://i.imgur.com/VZPtH4x.jpg

Wow I didn't realize such a path was that rare. If the models verify this could be a once in a lifetime storm in terms of its track.

[sma10]

At t240 STILL going due west towards the western gulf!

Verbatim, given the time of year plus the position where the ridge captures Karen (26n, 65w), this would have to be a .... once a century type track?

More like unprecedented. Closest analog I see is Andrew, and even that didn't get sent nearly that far west. The only other system remotely in the ball park (and really not that close) is Dora (1964). And for late September/early October, from a climatological standpoint, this would be pretty astounding.

https://i.imgur.com/VZPtH4x.jpg

It's not an analog, but the only track even remotely close would be Inez i suppose. But the Inez track was fairly conventional until getting captured and rerouted at 26n 78w

[Cunxi Huang]

00z ec. 961 mb over the gulf of Mexico.

AL, 12, 2019092300, 98, EMDT, 150, 244N, 717W, 68, 982, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11
AL, 12, 2019092300, 98, EMDT, 240, 247N, 919W, 78, 961, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13

[AJC3]

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

[sma10]

Do i have the number correct that this run of the Euro directs Karen on a south of west path for 2,000 miles??

[Bocadude85]

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008)

While maybe not a great analog, the 1935 Yankee hurricane in November shows what a strong ridge in the right position can do

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane#/media/File%3A1935_Atlantic_hurricane_7_track.png

[aperson]

wild all around

[AJC3]

Here's the dreaded spaghetti model output from TropicalAtlantic.com with the worst of the junk removed...

[jconsor]

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

https://i.imgur.com/vEkAiaE.jpg

While such a prolonged westerly track from a relatively high latitude is rare in late Sep/early Oct, it's not unprecedented.

Here are four examples. Hurricane Kate (which you mentioned) in Nov 1985 moved west from the SE Bahamas into N Cuba, before recurving N and NE and hitting the FL panhandle as a Cat 2.



A late Sep hurricane in 1941 developed NE of PR and moved W to WNW, hitting S FL as a Cat 2.



An early Oct hurricane in 1929 developed N of PR and initially moved NW, then turned sharply SW toward the N Bahamas, hitting Nassau hard before striking extreme S FL as a Cat 3.



A hurricane in 1893 developed in late Sep south of the Cape Verde Islands, then turned NW passing several hundred miles NE of the Leeward Islands. It then bent back to the WNW, passing across the far N Bahamas. Finally, it turned N, brushing the NE FL and GA coasts, then making a rare landfall in SC in mid-Oct as a Cat 3!

[Ken711]

[NDG]

If you expand the radius out to 120 miles, you get 2 more infamous semi-analogs: Betsy (1965) and Ike (2008). However, both were 2 (Ike) to 4 (Betsy) weeks earlier in the season. A 175 mile radius gives you the very infamous Kate (November 1985) as another semi-analog, as well as an unnamed hurricane in mid September 1947.

https://i.imgur.com/vEkAiaE.jpg

Indeed Betsy and Ike were earlier in the hurricane season but the pattern across the western Atlantic into the eastern US will be very much like the middle of the summer, fairly unusual for this time of the year.