ATL: KAREN - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

12z Euro, 00z Icon, and 00z GFS all currently show the same landfall location in Florida with slight timeframe differences and major intensity disputes (which both can and will change).

[Hurricaneman]

12z Euro, 00z Icon, and 00z GFS all currently show the same landfall location in Florida with slight timeframe differences and major intensity disputes (which both can and will change).

The GFS keeps Karen just outside the anticyclone keeping shear over it while the Euro has the anticyclone near or on top of it which causes it to intensify on the Euro

[WeatherEmperor]

The crazy track rhe Ukmet has for Karen appears tonbe influenced by it leaving Jerry behind. Look at what it does with Jerry and how it affects Karen






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[AtlanticWind]

Euro leaving Jerry behind on this run ,see if this changes things

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro leaving Jerry behind on this run ,see if this changes things

ridge already caught karen it appears.

[AJC3]

Euro leaving Jerry behind on this run ,see if this changes things

It would. If there's more of a weakness to the north, then the ridge would be slower to build in. Could lead to an escape route, or even binary interaction. Rest of the run will be interesting.
May be seeing yet another example of how model runs show significant shifts in the extended range.

[AtlanticWind]

Ridge still caught it

[sma10]

Euro leaving Jerry behind on this run ,see if this changes things

It would. If there's more of a weakness to the north, then the ridge would be slower to build in. Could lead to an escape route, or even binary interaction. Rest of the run will be interesting.
May be seeing yet another example of how model runs show significant shifts in the extended range.

I think there's just barely enough space between the two systems (on this run at least) for Karen to take the long straight ride westerly. But it's close

[AJC3]

Euro leaving Jerry behind on this run ,see if this changes things

It would. If there's more of a weakness to the north, then the ridge would be slower to build in. Could lead to an escape route, or even binary interaction. Rest of the run will be interesting.
May be seeing yet another example of how model runs show significant shifts in the extended range.

Which didn't occur this run. H50 ridge builds in big time by H120...and away to the west Karen starts to go...

[Highteeld]

locked and loaded:

[AxaltaRacing24]

Quite the ridge on this run for late September. Even the nuclear bomb behind Karen is underneath it.

[AJC3]

Even though I preach to use ensembles and trends this far out, I can't help but notice that the operational global models, even the less reliable ones, are in much better agreement out around 3-5 days than they normally are. While precision doesn't ensure accuracy, it certainly makes you stand up and take notice. Of course, another big question is what kind of shape Karen will be in once it emerges north of PR/VI in 3 days.

[sma10]

Euro leaving Jerry behind on this run ,see if this changes things

It would. If there's more of a weakness to the north, then the ridge would be slower to build in. Could lead to an escape route, or even binary interaction. Rest of the run will be interesting.
May be seeing yet another example of how model runs show significant shifts in the extended range.

Which didn't occur this run. H50 ridge builds in big time by H120...and away to the west Karen starts to go...

It will be interesting though to compare in this run if the Atlantic ridge is as stout.

It doesn't look as amplified as before

[WeatherEmperor]

Moving a touch south of due west....




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[AtlanticWind]

Stronger than 12z

[sma10]

Quite the ridge on this run for late September. Even the nuclear bomb behind Karen is underneath it.

Interesting you mention that. Lorenzo on this run is not only quite a bit further SW than previous run, but also not as clear of a slam dunk escape route

[AJC3]

72 hour trend for SLP and 500MB height for the ECM. The model appears to have gone toward a slightly more progressive, less blocky pattern. Note the eastern CONUS/western ATLC ridge looks a little flatter and farther east, while the huge central Atlantic trough progged to catch Lorenzo-to-be has shifted eastward, allowing the TC to enter the picture.

[WeatherEmperor]

Shooting towards south florida




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[sma10]

https://i.imgur.com/05BsNA6.gif

72 hour trend for SLP and 500MB height for the ECM. The model appears to have gone toward a slightly more progressive, less blocky pattern. Note the eastern CONUS/western ATLC ridge looks a little flatter and farther east, while the huge central Atlantic trough progged to catch Lorenzo-to-be has shifted eastward, allowing the TC to enter the picture.

What would the ramifications of this be, if any?
I notice that Lorenzo seems to make a sharp turn to the north mostly because Jerry's remains slow down considerably this run.

[WeatherEmperor]

By the keys now




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