ATL: KAREN - Models

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: not surprisingly (due to much weaker operational) far weaker with the average member than the 0Z EPS and with far fewer full fledged TCs. Many fewer than the 18 CONUS hits of the 0Z. However, there are still a nontrivial number of CONUS hits out of ~51. More details later from somebody.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wouldn't read much into intensity on the ECMWF. Enough to know it's a small storm and the ECMWF struggles with portraying accurate intensities for smaller systems.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: not surprisingly (due to much weaker operational) far weaker with the average member than the 0Z EPS and with far fewer full fledged TCs. Many fewer than the 18 CONUS hits of the 0Z. However, there are still a nontrivial number of CONUS hits out of ~51. More details later from somebody.

12Z EPS: About half the number of TC CONUS hits (9/29-10/4) vs 0Z's 18 but still means a legit threat as of now as I still see 10/20% of members:

9/29: St. Aug., FL, as a H
9/29: SE tip of FL as a H followed by a 2nd hit SE LA 10/1 as a H
9/30: CHS, SC, as a H
9/30: SE FL as a TD
9/30: SE FL as a TD (different one)
10/1: GA/FL border as a TD
10/1: Cape Canaveral, FL, as a H
10/1: SE FL as a TS I think; then a 2nd hit on SE LA 10/3 as a TS
10/3: Daytona Beach, FL, as a TS
10/4: Vero Beach, FL, as a H

Edit: There is only one near CHS as the 2nd line is the same one coming back offshore lol. Also, one of the TDs hitting SE FL is from Jerry, not Karen.

[Blown Away]

Noticing the less reliable model guidance is coming into agreement with the TVCN Consensus which starts a smoother west turn @25N instead of getting up to @27N then looping/WSW...

[WxEp]

12Z EPS

 https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot/status/1175858227734409216

[Blown Away]

Notice the guidance models that take Karen N of the NHC track or stall and loop keep her weak. The models that follow the NHC and TVCN keep Karen a modest TS. How long did it take for GFS to finally acknowledge Dorian as a TS and not an open wave?

[Blown Away]

12Z EPS

https://twitter.com/ECMWFbot/status/1175858227734409216

If that strong HP and sharp L turn happens, the latitude that turn happens seems to take Karen on a beeline W past 80W, so the timing of turn will be important.

[Blown Away]

18z keeps Karen weak, but each run keeps trending a little W and faster...

[WxEp]

Overall setup seems similar for 18Z GFS but it keeps the remnants of Karen extremely weak. Steering still could be an issue for the future assuming the intensity is stronger than shown in this run.

On the other hand, 18Z GFS Legacy has much more vorticity than in any of its recent prior runs. However, it seems to stall the system further north and still has it near 67W at 180 hours.

Huge range of possibilities.

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS has hardly anything as the remnants move westward. It is hard to even identify.
18Z Legacy is stronger but it is further east near Bermuda at hour 180 though hardly moving.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z UKMET is nuts and has Jerry being the system that gets caught and shoved back W-WSW, with Karen circling around it.

[Ken711]

[Blown Away]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_12_ens.gif

Once that L turn starts, Karen will slingshot very fast to the W... Models seeing very strong HP for now...

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS is once again a GEFS run with all weak to very weak members, most of which probably do come west.

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA fwiw: stalls Karen at 120 as a weak low and then turns her west toward FL though while she is weakening to an open wave.

[Blown Away]

18Z GEFS is once again a GEFS run with all weak to very weak members, most of which probably do come west.

We won’t have to wait like Dorian, whatever Karen is will fly west if under that HP...

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GEFS is once again a GEFS run with all weak to very weak members, most of which probably do come west.

We won’t have to wait like Dorian, whatever Karen is will fly west if under that HP...[/q

After seeing the GFS busting literally 30 hrs out with Dorian I give it about a good chance as the Canadian this year.

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw, the 18Z Hwrf coming in stronger




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[Blown Away]

18z intensity guidance mostly showing a strengthening TS starting in 72 hours and after west turn begins...

[sma10]

I suppose it's possible that if Karen gets captured and sent directly West that she will remain extremely weak under a strong high and with extremely high SSTs. But I wouldn't wager on it.

At this point I think track is all important. If Karen is only a TD when she gets sent West I would still be concerned