ATL: KAREN - Models

[facemane]

Rare yes , but this could be setting up for one of those rare instances
Like Inez in 1966 or the 1929 hurricane
Time will tell....

How about the Yankee Hurricane (1935)? That one formed EAST of Bermuda and struck Miami as a category 2 in November !

Having to go just a little ways back in order to make a point ‘29, ‘35, and ‘66 and just three out of all these years gone by I agree with Blown Away except this year I would say it would be extremely rare if not on the verge of just not going to happen

Look at the past systems that have been in the area north of the islands this year. Dorian, Humberto, Jerry, think here was an invest, and td3 all turned north after early model runs showed a strong high building in pushing it west into Florida and the gulf. But extremely progressive pattern is and has been in place with northern stream troughs coming across every couple of days that weaken the ridges enough to give the storms an escape path. And now that we’re pushing towards October expect them to be more frequent and even stronger. Willing to bet the models will flip back to an out to sea route tomorrow just as quick as they went west today.

No need to go back to 1966. Georges hit the Ms. coast on Sept 28 1998. It hit Hispaniola as a cat 4 and then scraped the north Cuba coast before hitting Key West.
It then went and made it's final landfall in Biloxi in basically a straight line. I know climatology favors recurves this time of year,but it's not 100% guaranteed

[p1nheadlarry]

Also, for what it's worth, the CFS forecasted positive 500 hpa height anomalies over the eastern seaboard for early fall.

[MGC]

Take these early model runs with a large grain of salt. As we saw with Dorian, until the Gulfstream samples the ridge, a definitive model track is almost impossible to determine with the data available at the time.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

Take these early model runs with a large grain of salt. As we saw with Dorian, until the Gulfstream samples the ridge, a definitive model track is almost impossible to determine with the data available at the time.....MGC

I agree MGC. ..I don't about you but it is dry in Pensacola. Continuing summer for Northern Gulf coast?

[chris_fit]

Take these early model runs with a large grain of salt. As we saw with Dorian, until the Gulfstream samples the ridge, a definitive model track is almost impossible to determine with the data available at the time.....MGC

Not to thumbs down the Gulfstream Dropsode data, but I don't ever recall the data bringing about an 'epiphany' or a totally different track once the data was inputted into the models. I believe it's more a 'fine-tune' rather than an influx of radically new data that would cause a massive shift in the track.

[AtlanticWind]

Take these early model runs with a large grain of salt. As we saw with Dorian, until the Gulfstream samples the ridge, a definitive model track is almost impossible to determine with the data available at the time.....MGC

Not to thumbs down the Gulfstream Dropsode data, but I don't ever recall the data bringing about an 'epiphany' or a totally different track once the data was inputted into the models. I believe it's more a 'fine-tune' rather than an influx of radically new data that would cause a massive shift in the track.

The gulfstream data might give some info on short term 48 to 72 hours on movement and intensity
But the models forecasting a turn to west in 5 to 7 days are based on what's evolving over the U.S.
In the coming week.

[chris_fit]

GFS Trend - 5 Days

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Considerable differences in timing between the 00z ECMWF and 12z GFS. GFS is way slower moving westward.

[LarryWx]

12Z: ICON looks like recurve from US while GFS is the opposite.

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z GFS still takes it W toward Bahamas, but weakens it to a wave, due to shear from an upper low that is meandering off the SE coast throughout the run.

[Hurricaneman]

12Z still takes it W toward Bahamas, but weakens it to a wave, due to shear from an upper low that is meandering off the SE coast throughout the run.

It’s a GFS vs Euro thing but for once not the track but intensity, the Euro has a hurricane as it heads west while the GFS barely has anything but usually storms that head west intensify so based on that I’m leaning towards the Euro but the GFS can’t be discounted if an ULL forms close by near the Bahamas and stalls

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF was the first to sniff out Humberto becoming a hurricane and going East as well as Dorian's recurve, both at about this time out too. If it remains consistent then we have real reason to be concerned.

[AxaltaRacing24]

ECMWF was the first to sniff out Humberto becoming a hurricane and going East as well as Dorian's recurve, both at about this time out too. If it remains consistent then we have real reason to be concerned.

I agree, but sometimes the euro becomes inconsistent when it counts. Irma’s final landfall approach and some of the dorian shifts are just 2 examples. Given this, i’d personally expect the storm to become at least a cat 1 once it turns. Can’t assume much more than that right now though.

[sma10]

12z Ukmet is very confusing and might need a Met to interpret. It's almost as if it confuses Jerry with Karen

[Do_For_Love]

We'll see what happens, but I wouldn't write off the possibility of this turning towards the US in the end. It's an unusual track, but not a totally unprecedented one, as others have pointed out. Worth keeping an eye on, as I'm sure we all will anyway, lol.

[GeneratorPower]

ECMWF was the first to sniff out Humberto becoming a hurricane and going East as well as Dorian's recurve, both at about this time out too. If it remains consistent then we have real reason to be concerned.

I agree, but sometimes the euro becomes inconsistent when it counts. Irma’s final landfall approach and some of the dorian shifts are just 2 examples.

Both of those examples are very, very small shifts in a final outcome. Like 75 miles difference on Irma a couple days out. Depends on what your definition of "inconsistent" is but in my book the ECMWF's Irma forecast, and the GFS forecast for that matter, were very good. It's the geography of Florida that made such a slight difference have such different results.

[toad strangler]

For those keeping score the 12z CMC still has Karen moving N at 120 hours

[chris_fit]

For those keeping score the 12z CMC still has Karen moving N at 120 hours

And then takes it East out to sea

[LarryWx]

12z Ukmet is very confusing and might need a Met to interpret. It's almost as if it confuses Jerry with Karen

It looks like it dissipates Karen quickly and after stalling Jerry at hour 60 has him move SSW 96-132 followed by a turn to the WSW 132-44. Is this due to its left bias playing tricks on us? What should we make of the 12Z UKMET, ignore it?

[sma10]

12z Ukmet is very confusing and might need a Met to interpret. It's almost as if it confuses Jerry with Karen

It looks like it dissipates Karen quickly and after stalling Jerry at hour 60 has him move SSW 96-132 followed by a turn to the WSW 132-44. Is this due to its left bias playing tricks on us? What should we make of the 12Z UKMET, ignore it?

Very strange. Dissipates Karen, yet has Jerry in virtually the same spot at 144 hrs that the Euro places Karen, both with SW headings. Complex setup