ATL: KAREN - Models

[Ivanhater]

Does anyone have a map of the last 3 runs of the euro ensembles to compare to?

[LarryWx]

00z ECMWF ensembles:

https://i.imgur.com/jGjL2RM.png

To clarify why I said 18 CONUS hits, your map shows only 12 because it only goes through 240. But 6 additional members hit after 240 for a total of 18.

[USTropics]

Does anyone have a map of the last 3 runs of the euro ensembles to compare to?

Past 4 cycles:


src: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=99L.2019&dtg=2019092200

[Ivanhater]

Does anyone have a map of the last 3 runs of the euro ensembles to compare to?

Past 4 cycles:
https://i.ibb.co/g7mRwzJ/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif

src: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=99L.2019&dtg=2019092200

Thank you. That really shows the trend and when folks see the trend tonight , all eyes on deck...

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone have a map of the last 3 runs of the euro ensembles to compare to?

Past 4 cycles:
https://i.ibb.co/g7mRwzJ/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif

src: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=99L.2019&dtg=2019092200

Thank you. That really shows the trend and when folks see the trend tonight , all eyes on deck...

there is plenty of model support for the ridge to build back in, florida to nova scotia be on alert

[northjaxpro]

Past 4 cycles:
https://i.ibb.co/g7mRwzJ/Webp-net-gifmaker-1.gif

src: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=99L.2019&dtg=2019092200

Thank you. That really shows the trend and when folks see the trend tonight , all eyes on deck...

there is plenty of model support for the ridge to build back in, florida to nova scotia be on alert

JLauderdal, I would add the Caribbean to that as well as that ridge looks so strong right now that Karen could get forced west/southwest to impact Cuba.

[toad strangler]

Wow the 00z Euro is crazy. 2019 seems to be the year of un-orthodox tracks.

In model land, not in reality

[ronjon]

Meanwhile 06z GFS much weaker west into S FL and toward northern GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019092206&fh=300

[toad strangler]

Meanwhile 06z GFS much weaker west into S FL and toward northern GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019092206&fh=300

Models were spitting out tiny little vorts with Dorian this far out.

[jlauderdal]

Meanwhile 06z GFS much weaker west into S FL and toward northern GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2019092206&fh=300

looks very dangerous for anyone south of 30...gfs and euro rarely agree this far out on troughs and ridges, they could both be wrong

[AdamFirst]

Looking like another week of long nights ahead of us, folks. Hoping something like the GFS verifies rather than the Euro.

[gatorcane]

west turn and the Euro ensembles are not even on there where most turn towards Bahamas and many into Florida:

[gatorcane]

It ends up at 240 in far SE Gulf moving NNW.

The 500MB high is rapidly weakening too, could even go N then NE into Florida if the run went out further.

[Blown Away]

:eek: west turn and the Euro ensembles are not even on there where most turn towards Bahamas and many into Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnD4jT1m/storm-12-ens.gif

If the NHC buys this hard left, they will likely start showing it in the next advisories. The model turn starts after day 5, that’s why we see a subtle bend in the NHC track at day 5 point.

[Ivanhater]

Very extreme GFS and Euro solutions showing Karen getting into the Gulf, let's see what 12Z shows.

[SFLcane]

:eek: west turn and the Euro ensembles are not even on there where most turn towards Bahamas and many into Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnD4jT1m/storm-12-ens.gif

Wow I most say this one caught me by surprise could be a long week folks. Thankfully I still have all my water from Dorian just in case.

[jlauderdal]

Very extreme GFS and Euro solutions showing Karen getting into the Gulf, let's see what 12Z shows.

doesn't look extreme to me, looks very possible based on the ridging in place

[ronjon]

I think if the early model runs taught us anything about Dorian and Humberto, we should take these model runs all with a huge grain of salt. Things can and will change this far out. And perhaps most importantly, the models so far this year have over predicted the strength of 500 mb ridging in the SW Atlantic and the US has been spared any significant impact from MDR storms. Now will the upper level pattern finally flip to one of strong ridging? Seems unlikely but you never know...

[jlauderdal]

:eek: west turn and the Euro ensembles are not even on there where most turn towards Bahamas and many into Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnD4jT1m/storm-12-ens.gif

If the NHC buys this hard left, they will likely start showing it in the next advisories. The model turn starts after day 5, that’s why we see a subtle bend in the NHC track at day 5 point.

with gfs and euro support dont see how they can do anything other then a hard left, they made a hard right with dorian in the bahamas

[drezee]

The euro 240h is scary...but still 10 days so...you never know

I will say the 500mb setup says something will be there even if Karen isn't