ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SconnieCane
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#241 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:59 pm

Visioen wrote:IR makes me think it's getting more vertically aligned.

https://i.imgur.com/QB8hrsr.gif


Respectable looking little TS. I suppose the "Looks better than Barry did as a 65kt Cat. 1" cliché is becoming rather played out, but...yeah.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#242 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:41 pm



No hint of an eyewall. Deep convection, but not close to hurricane status.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#243 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:47 pm

The upper levels of the CDO are starting to shows some circulation. not too much longer if convection keeps up like this.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#244 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:48 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:


No hint of an eyewall. Deep convection, but not close to hurricane status.


it is almost certainly close to a hurricane. if not at 75mph
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#245 Postby Visioen » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:19 pm

Those cloud tops are so cold I'm getting shivers from it.

Image
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#246 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:20 pm

00z Best Track up to 55 kts.

Location: 15.2°N 51.2°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#247 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:21 pm

Looks to be gaining some latitude
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#248 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:30 pm

distinct warm spot showing up on IR now..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#249 Postby StormTracker » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:32 pm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5
Looks pretty convincing on MIMIC! :wink:
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#250 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:35 pm



Definitely looks convincing at low layer PW to me

Image
(ref: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5)
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#251 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:05 pm

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1174502929283407882


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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#252 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:34 pm

Eye on IR is becoming more apparent. Very dicernable curved band of negative 80 plus tops 3/4 the way around.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#253 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:distinct warm spot showing up on IR now..

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir


I still don't see anything
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#254 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Eye on IR is becoming more apparent. Very dicernable curved band of negative 80 plus tops 3/4 the way around.


I'm seeing the opposite on the same link! Can you please post a screenshot?
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#255 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 9:59 pm

Abdullah wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Eye on IR is becoming more apparent. Very dicernable curved band of negative 80 plus tops 3/4 the way around.


I'm seeing the opposite on the same link! Can you please post a screenshot?

Yeah I’m not seeing that either :lol:
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#256 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:03 pm

I see some waning convection around the “center”. I’m not so sure that’s an eye developing. I was informed this morning this this would be a hurricane by this time, to which I balked and am not surprised that it isn’t yet. It will probably get there, but not now.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#257 Postby Tailspin » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:50 pm

Likley become a cane sometime over night.
Image
https://imgur.com/1QkNnrp
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#258 Postby WAcyclone » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:36 pm

Jerry finally developed a true cyan ring.

Image
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#259 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:37 pm

Image
Image

Partial eye evident on microwave imagery so we could have a hurricane by morning. But there's only about 12-18 hours left to strengthen as it's headed into some westerly shear, you can see the western side flattening out with the high clouds and everything west of that coming from the east.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#260 Postby Tailspin » Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:07 am

Image
https://imgur.com/unJCjNS
36h shows the established core very well.
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