ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

Well gang, I’ve dodged a bullet so far. The core of Imelda moved to just a few miles to my west and parked overnight. If this had transitioned to an ‘overnight core dump’ who knows what I would have woken up to. It was mostly sprinkles and I didn’t even get any real rains until this morning, about the time I woke up. So strange to see basically a naked swirl on the radar during the nighttime with a tropical low.

So far I’ve had 1.68” - could have very easily been 16.8” instead, but it wasn’t.

It’s not over yet, but so far all is OK in Montgomery County. Just a light breeze and some much-needed rainfall.

[1900hurricane]

Amazingly, not a single flash flood warning active right now despite totals approaching 10" in a couple places.

Yeah. There are some flood warnings for rivers (Neches) and creeks, but so far no flash flooding. That could change later of course.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

Much of the heaviest rain last night was focused in a band that was largely just offshore, which helped a bit. With the center continuing to knuckleball northwards, I don't think that happens tonight though. Next 24 hours in particular look concerning to me, especially overnight tonight. 12Z HREF is coming in now and it's pretty bad for the eastern tier of HGX counties and western tier of LCH counties. I don't like the size of the 10" contour on the Probability Matched Mean QPF. I think roughly east of I-45 and south of US 190 will see the heaviest over the next 24 hours, but if a band tails out to the south and west like it did last night in Matagorda County, that could work someone in the Houston metro back in with the higher totals too.

[Stormcenter]

So why is Imelda moving east now?

[AnnularCane]

So why is Imelda moving east now?

What do you mean? The advisory says north.

[StormLogic]

So why is Imelda moving east now?

What do you mean? The advisory says north.

its moving NE right now, barely moving

[stormlover2013]

So why is Imelda moving east now?

What do you mean? The advisory says north.

its moving NE right now, barely moving

mm

[StormLogic]

be advised this storm could stall for 24-48 hrs when and if it does stall.

[StormLogic]

Beaumont is fixing to get hit with an intense rain band. Going to try and get to the top floor of the building for good video capture.

[stormlover2013]

yeah storm is doing what models have been saying its going to do

[1900hurricane]

I mentioned that the big overnight band was mostly offshore earlier, but it did manage to stay over Matagorda and parts of Brazoria county overnight. Gauge verified rainfall rates of 5-6"/hr occurred with that band, which adds up very quickly.

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1174266388845879297




 https://twitter.com/terry107945/status/1174301267507720193

[StormLogic]

yeah storm is doing what models have been saying its going to do

Stop watching models , watch the storm now and it's movement on sat imagery.

[stormlover2013]

yeah storm is doing what models have been saying its going to do

Stop watching models , watch the storm now and it's movement on sat imagery.

you still have to watch the models to see some kind of trend and etc lol come on man, I watch everything but the HRR model is a good one to watch in a situation like this

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174359403723706373



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1174360702796140544

[StormLogic]

yeah storm is doing what models have been saying its going to do

Stop watching models , watch the storm now and it's movement on sat imagery.

you still have to watch the models to see some kind of trend and etc lol come on man, I watch everything but the HRR model is a good one to watch in a situation like this

I'd rather trust whats happening now vs model trends at this point.

[jasons2k]

The latest WPC forecast has this taking a hard left turn in about 24 hours. The final plot for Friday AM is very close to Groesbeck/Mexia areas...

[StormLogic]

NAM is not giving up on some stalling the ULL & re-intensifying in 24 hrs

[StormLogic]

My area is now under risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. In the next 24 hrs, we are expected to receive 15-24"+ in isolated areas in a 24-30hr time frame...

[Stormcenter]

It seems as though most of Imelda’s weather is
moving into LA.

[setxweathergal64]

My area is now under risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. In the next 24 hrs, we are expected to receive 15-24"+ in isolated areas in a 24-30hr time frame...

Where are you??

[Craters]

As of 10:00 this morning, we had a total of 5.8" in SW Alvin. A couple of friends in Friendswood had 8" and 9.3" by this morning.

The band that came through last night brought rain that was as intense as Harvey's for a couple (?) of hours. Hard to tell for sure, because they seemed like weeks. The drainage handled it very well, thankfully.

Before trying to go to sleep, I figured I'd check the street one more time. The water was almost halfway up the driveway, and there wasn't a high-water mark above it yet -- still coming up. And it didn't seem to be raining all that hard, so out I go to check the sewer drains on the corner. It turns out that today is garbage/recycling day, so most of the neighbors took their cans out last night. We have to put our cans within two feet of the curb or they won't pick them up. (Don't get me started.) As best as I can tell, the water rose just enough to start to float the cans, and the slopes leading down to the curb were just enough to make the cans tip into the street. The lids on some of them opened, dumping whatever was in them into the water. The recycling stuff was the worst -- the combination of cardboard, paper, and plastic water and milk cans turned into a VERY effective drain-blocking combination. Add to that small branches, leaves, and pine needles, and presto! Instant beaver dam without the beavers. It took about half an hour to unclog two drains in the rain. (If you've never been in it, allow me to point out that rain from a TC is friggin' cold.) It was amazing how fast the level went down in the whole neighborhood after the drains were clear. Live and learn, I guess.

Anyway, so far, so good in our part of Brazoria County...