ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormLogic]

I have to drive to Beaumont today for drs appt. Might need to cancel if it keeps raining like it is.

In Beaumont right now, It's rained about 2-3" in the last 3 hours

[StormLogic]

Anahuac ISD, East Chambers ISD , and High Island all have canceled classes so far in SETX

[StormLogic]

Starting to think the NAM was hitting this right on. I expected Houston to miss most of the rain and it would be well off to the E of it. I also was thinking there would be some type of wobble and stalling going on, which indeed it looks to be stalling or barely moving at this moment in NW Houston. (WHAT HAPPENED TO CONROE BY NOW) When we started seeing copious amounts of rainfall back on Monday in the models, I also noticed that some of the models that have convection on them were spinning this up over land and either stalling and wobbling at any giving time.

I knew it had to been caused by something, stalling or wobble, what else right? Anyways I think as the day progresses there will be more school closure once people start realizing its flooding again, up to 24" or more of rainfall in isolated areas within 60 hrs doesn't sound pleasing. SL

[Stormcenter]

Looks stationary or maybe drifting east some to
my old eyes definitely has slowed down some.

[supercane4867]

Possible intensification over land?

[wx98]

Possible intensification over land?

https://i.imgur.com/MJpcMrH.gif

I doubt it. I’d say the frictional effects of land will keep this as a TD. The rain coverage and intensity may be a different story...

[ronyan]

9.70" on the gauge here since yesterday, 2.50" this morning. It hasn't rained super hard here, just nearly constant since yesterday morning.

[mpic]

9.70" on the gauge here since yesterday, 2.50" this morning. It hasn't rained super hard here, just nearly constant since yesterday morning.

Where are you? Every time I woke up during the night it was raining fairly hard in Splendora. Nothing like the hard rain of Harvey, though. My ditch is only half full and no pooling on my driveway, so the ground is absorbing it better than I thought it would.

[StormLogic]

Possible intensification over land?

https://i.imgur.com/MJpcMrH.gif

that was just some explosion of thunderstorm activity. you can see it on the 12hr infrared sat loop

[ronjon]

Starting to think the NAM was hitting this right on. I expected Houston to miss most of the rain and it would be well off to the E of it. I also was thinking there would be some type of wobble and stalling going on, which indeed it looks to be stalling or barely moving at this moment in NW Houston. (WHAT HAPPENED TO CONROE BY NOW) When we started seeing copious amounts of rainfall back on Monday in the models, I also noticed that some of the models that have convection on them were spinning this up over land and either stalling and wobbling at any giving time.

I knew it had to been caused by something, stalling or wobble, what else right? Anyways I think as the day progresses there will be more school closure once people start realizing its flooding again, up to 24" or more of rainfall in isolated areas within 60 hrs doesn't sound pleasing. SL

Looks like there's already been over 22 inches at Freeport.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/tx/brownsville/hgx

[ronyan]

9.70" on the gauge here since yesterday, 2.50" this morning. It hasn't rained super hard here, just nearly constant since yesterday morning.

Where are you? Every time I woke up during the night it was raining fairly hard in Splendora. Nothing like the hard rain of Harvey, though. My ditch is only half full and no pooling on my driveway, so the ground is absorbing it better than I thought it would.

I'm located in Lake Jackson, we had a period this morning where the rain rate might have reach 3in/hr briefly and the street finally flooded in the low spots about 30 minutes ago. FYI the 22" inches on that radar estimate is closer to Sargent, TX which is about 20 miles WSW of Freeport.

[mpic]

Wind comes and goes here and rain is now a little harder. One encouraging thing is that the hummingbirds are still coming to the feeder under my porch roof. Usually don't see any birds during severe tropical weather. I'm between 2 county rain gauges so guessing about 4.5 inches so far.

[galvbay]

8.5” at Smith Point overall from Monday. Looks/sounds like another band headed this way. No flooding and very little ponding in the area....much needed rain


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[Steve]

Starting to think the NAM was hitting this right on. I expected Houston to miss most of the rain and it would be well off to the E of it. I also was thinking there would be some type of wobble and stalling going on, which indeed it looks to be stalling or barely moving at this moment in NW Houston. (WHAT HAPPENED TO CONROE BY NOW) When we started seeing copious amounts of rainfall back on Monday in the models, I also noticed that some of the models that have convection on them were spinning this up over land and either stalling and wobbling at any giving time.

I knew it had to been caused by something, stalling or wobble, what else right? Anyways I think as the day progresses there will be more school closure once people start realizing its flooding again, up to 24" or more of rainfall in isolated areas within 60 hrs doesn't sound pleasing. SL

Good post. I think people often get carried away by where something might landfall and miss out on the what's going to happen after. I always try to look at that stuff too to help me learn to recognize different types of threats from different types of scenarios. Rainfall threat had the possibility of being east of the center, north of the center and also south with feeder bands. That's what's up so far. Lots of storms firing just along the coast and moving up and around the low. What I got from the NAM and RGEM models was that the rainfall extent was probably going to be a lot greater than what GFS had (couple inches here and there). Those models also focused on today and tomorrow being the big rain events. What was hard to say was if it was SW LA, East Texas, Houston Metro or whatever. Storms will die off a bit later and should reform again tonight similar to what happened last night with intensification late into the morning. People need to heed any flash flood warnings as that looks like the biggest deal that will have to be faced.

[1900hurricane]

Amazingly, not a single flash flood warning active right now despite totals approaching 10" in a couple places.

[StormLogic]

NE shift in the last few frames if my eyes are correct. Or Could be the coffee kicking in...

[stormlover2013]

NE shift in the last few frames if my eyes are correct. Or Could be the coffee kicking in...

it's supposed to do that, doesn't surprise me

[Stormcenter]

Definite eastward movement.

NE shift in the last few frames if my eyes are correct. Or Could be the coffee kicking in...

[mpic]

Definite eastward movement.

NE shift in the last few frames if my eyes are correct. Or Could be the coffee kicking in...

That would be good for us northeast of Houston, right?

[Steve]

Amazingly, not a single flash flood warning active right now despite totals approaching 10" in a couple places.

Yeah. There are some flood warnings for rivers (Neches) and creeks, but so far no flash flooding. That could change later of course.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning