ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Wind is picking up in H-Town, not too bad, but you can definitely tell this is tropical (I'm sure you all know what I mean).

[vbhoutex]

It's now casting time but the latest 12z Euro is very concerning.

https://i.ibb.co/XxWKPVp/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019091712-61-490-220.png

Looks like TS Allison in 2001.

HUSH your mouth! No A words please! Unfortunately as I have been watching Imelda develop over the last few days that was my thought also. I have not looked at steering currents. That will be the biggest determinate imo of whether we get what one would normally expect from a low end TS that is moving vs one that is wandering around or stalled. Some of the model outputs for rain are scary!

[StormLogic]

It's now casting time but the latest 12z Euro is very concerning.

https://i.ibb.co/XxWKPVp/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019091712-61-490-220.png

Looks like TS Allison in 2001.

HUSH your mouth! No A words please! Unfortunately as I have been watching Imelda develop over the last few days that was my thought also. I have not looked at steering currents. That will be the biggest determinate imo of whether we get what one would normally expect from a low end TS that is moving vs one that is wandering around or stalled. Some of the model outputs for rain are scary!

some models have shown stalling scenarios since yesterday

[SoupBone]

It's now casting time but the latest 12z Euro is very concerning.

https://i.ibb.co/XxWKPVp/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019091712-61-490-220.png

Looks like TS Allison in 2001.

HUSH your mouth! No A words please! Unfortunately as I have been watching Imelda develop over the last few days that was my thought also. I have not looked at steering currents. That will be the biggest determinate imo of whether we get what one would normally expect from a low end TS that is moving vs one that is wandering around or stalled. Some of the model outputs for rain are scary!

By noon tomorrow it's supposed to be north of Conroe, so we'll see.

[stormlover2013]

This is where the Mets get paid the big bucks

[Steve]

If the GFS verifies, Houston will be threading a thin, thin needle.

https://i.imgur.com/wXresTG.png

Fortunately, the area between Houston and Beaumont is sparsely populated.

It’s changing though. Yeah you have the rivers and watersheds (Lost, Trinity, etc.), but that area is rapidly filling up. Where there used to be endless pastures, there are now more and more subdivisions. Obviously it’s sparser than Houston, but it’s all gonna be filled in 10-15 years.

[SoupBone]

As we're nowcasting, I see some dry air slot forming between its core and the banding that Beaumont is getting hit. It's noticeable in the last several visible frames.

[EquusStorm]

Well then. That happened.

[RBDnhm]

Re: Post 187 - the same or a similar air slot is visible in radar also.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/markniss_/status/1174026213129695233

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1174047971148742656

[aperson]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1174046689503715328

[NDG]

[jasons2k]

This is where the Mets get paid the big bucks

Unfortunately, the vast majority of Mets don’t get paid “big bucks.”

Where the center goes (NNW vs N vs NNE) is going to make a huge difference

[SoupBone]

Has anyone been plotting movement speed? By just eyeing it, it seems to be moving a little faster than forecast, or am I just tired?

[jasons2k]

I think the real key for the Houston area is if this starts to drift more NNW later tonight into tomorrow as the NHC track implies.

I know we often preach that the line (forecast track) itself doesn’t matter, but in this case it does and it matters a lot.

I’ll be watching closely for any shifts in the track either direction.

[supercane4867]

Since it already made landfall could this be the shortest lived TS of all time?

[StormLogic]

I think the real key for the Houston area is if this starts to drift more NNW later tonight into tomorrow as the NHC track implies.

I know we often preach that the line (forecast track) itself doesn’t matter, but in this case it does and it matters a lot.

I’ll be watching closely for any shifts in the track either direction.

What's got me concerned is that the Euro,GFS, and Ukmet all have the high rainfall totals EAST of Houston.

[jasons2k]

The track did shift east slightly.

[Storm Battered]

Since it already made landfall could this be the shortest lived TS of all time?

It hasn't been downgraded yet.