ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Props to the ICON model it showed this early last week
when everyone understandably was focused on
Humberto forming.

NAM showed it as well but I disregarded as it's spun up small LLCs from thunderstorm complexes a few times before (that never materialized.) Apparently it was actually on to something this time which the repeated runs should've been an indication of. Needless to say I'm fairly surprised checking the weather and suddenly seeing three systems out there.

[SoupBone]

If the NHC track verifies (and I would bet on them) then the Houston area will indeed be at risk for a core event, similar to what yesterday’s models were showing after all....and I will retract my comments from this morning.

Yeah, the key point here will be to see how far it tracks to the east or due north of the city. Those 20-30 miles or so will make a difference in where the largest amount of rainfall will ultimately end up.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1174015350075097089

[StruThiO]

Amazing how quickly this is happening

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1174015690744815616

[Steve]

the map is on the previous page from the NHC show it a TS into and just after landfall. They said it's TD #11 for now, but they show it as a storm on the cone. That was the source.

As for the other post about conflicting information, the NHC says North at 5mph. The NE comment GCANE made had to do with the center adjusting a bit toward the convection.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1174 ... 15616?s=20

[SoupBone]

the map is on the previous page from the NHC show it a TS into and just after landfall. They said it's TD #11 for now, but they show it as a storm on the cone. That was the source.

As for the other post about conflicting information, the NHC says North at 5mph. The NE comment GCANE made had to do with the center adjusting a bit toward the convection.

Dr. Jeff Masters also mentioned a N-NE motion earlier as well.

[lester]

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[StruThiO]

this beat 97L

[Buck]

Imelda is ambitious!

[NDG]

Amazing how fast Imelda formed, I saw radar early this morning and I thought there was not much organization here, and it became very organized really fast during the past few hours.

[Senobia]

At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through early
Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night
and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression
will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move
farther inland tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves
onshore.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches
across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest
Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the
warning area this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[1900hurricane]

SREF plume mean QPF has increased each run for HGX over the past 24 hours.

[wx98]

This is like a redo of 2007 Humberto, missed by one storm being Humberto again

[Nuno]

This is like a redo of 2007 Humberto, missed by one storm being Humberto again

Far more of a rainmaker though.

[loon]

Sure has that TS Allison feel to it.. ooph.

[GCANE]

the map is on the previous page from the NHC show it a TS into and just after landfall. They said it's TD #11 for now, but they show it as a storm on the cone. That was the source.

As for the other post about conflicting information, the NHC says North at 5mph. The NE comment GCANE made had to do with the center adjusting a bit toward the convection.

To me it made a sudden move to the north after I posted the NE movement.
I think it was land friction effects that made the sudden apparent turn

[Nuno]

Sure seems like this very specific stretch of the Gulf coast encounters these "one in a 10,000 years" biblical flooding events far more frequently than...uh, 10,000 years. Not that it'll be Harvey bad, but still.

[HouTXmetro]

Sure seems like this very specific stretch of the Gulf coast encounters these "one in a 10,000 years" biblical flooding events far more frequently than...uh, 10,000 years. Not that it'll be Harvey bad, but still.

Probably not Harvey but it def may be a top 10 flooding event for the area.

[psyclone]

Remarkable similarity between Dorian/Fernand and Humberto/Imelda. Speaking more broadly...we're in the hunt for tropical season that ends up near or above normal based on where we are and the backloading tendency of our tropical seasons/conditions ahead...