ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1173990750301782016

[MGC]

Likely at least a TD imo.....MGC

[SoupBone]

This is going to bust north and west of downtown Houston. Center is east of the models and models are already tending east.

The GFS was showing most of the rain well east of Houston. I believe the Euro was as well.

[zhukm29]

It definitely meets the requirements for a TD, maybe even a TS given some of the radar measurements. Will have to see how the NHC deals with this because time is running out.

[Aric Dunn]

Incredibly straightforward. Center is offshore and deepening. curved band developing and winds aloft are picking up drastically. mid to upper 40mph at 3000 feet.

circulation is higher up and more defined. those winds will come down soon with that deep convection.

[jasons2k]

This is going to bust north and west of downtown Houston. Center is east of the models and models are already tending east.

The GFS was showing most of the rain well east of Houston. I believe the Euro was as well.

Yesterday every model save the GFS painted 15”+ right up through central Harris and Montgomery counties with 15-20” for me. Waller was the bullseye on the Euro with 30”. As of right now I doubt that’s going to happen based on what I am seeing.

[GCANE]

Lightning tracks clearly show the primary feeder band to the east of the CoC.
New feeder band coming in from the south like a bat out of hell.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Area of surface low pressure has formed just off the upper TX coast between Palacios and Freeport. Offshore observations show a defined surface low has formed and radar data from Houston indicates that winds 1500-2000 ft off the surface east of this low are ranging from 40-50mph. NHC is closely monitoring the situation and indicates that a tropical depression could form in the next few hours.

The low is drifting to the NNE at less than 5mph and this motion is expected to continue with bands of rainfall moving inland across the coast. Heaviest rains will focus along the coast and inland mainly along and SE of US 59 today

[Steve]

Don't forget that some of the mesoscales have this better organized a day/day and a half after it moves ashore. So the conditions will essentially be more favorable on land according to them. That was always the big deal as most of the rain has been painted offshore for 30 hours in yesterday's 18z and some of the 00z runs. That means that if they were right, later Wednesday into Thursday would be the big day for flooding if there is one.

[jasons2k]

The low is drifting to the NNE

That's the key folks. It's not moving due north. It's probably gonna track just east of downtown closer Galveston Bay and the majority of the heaviest rain will be there and points east.

[SoupBone]

This is going to bust north and west of downtown Houston. Center is east of the models and models are already tending east.

The GFS was showing most of the rain well east of Houston. I believe the Euro was as well.

Yesterday every model save the GFS painted 15”+ right up through central Harris and Montgomery counties with 15-20” for me. Waller was the bullseye on the Euro with 30”. As of right now I doubt that’s going to happen based on what I am seeing.

I'm definitely not -removed-, because we need rain in Houston, but it does appear to be an eastward trend with the rain. But as we all know with flooding, there's no real way to know until it's happening.

[Hurricaneman]

Honestly think this is a low end tropical storm

[GCANE]

This is the feeder band that will likely train over somebody for a long time.
The more 98L deepens, the more havoc this could create.

[jasons2k]

This is the feeder band that will likely train over somebody for a long time.
The more 98L deepens, the more havoc this could create.

I'm getting concerned Winnie over towards Beaumont is going to get slammed.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it might do a cyclonic loop into freeport. organization phases often have random motions

[GCANE]

Whoa, 5000 CAPE just developed to the east.
Going to advect right into this.
Could see some rapid strengthening.

[cainjamin]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171544
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1145 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Outlook issued to update discussion on low pressure near
the Texas coast.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located more than 500 miles west of Bermuda. The
National Hurricane center is also issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of
the Leeward Islands.

Updated: Recent satellite, radar, and surface data show that the
area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
near the Texas coast has become better defined this morning. The
associated thunderstorm activity has also increased and become a
little better organized. If these development trends continue, a
tropical depression could form before the system moves inland later
today or tonight, but significant additional development is not
likely once the system moves inland.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding remain the
primary hazards with this system. This disturbance is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas
into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods. For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[stormlover2013]

UKMET puts a hurting on houston and beaumont

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plit&time=

[Aric Dunn]

[wxman57]

Low appears to be right on the coast. Buoy just SE of Matagorda Bay has a 15kt NW wind. Looks like a TD, to me. Obs offshore with TS winds are well above the surface (over 200 ft). Time is running out before the center is inland, though. Doesn't matter what it's called, effects will be the same.