ATL: JERRY - Models

[chris_fit]

CMC 00Z Ens

[SFLcane]

Trend from 0z EPS members is a bit concerning, with an increasing g amount threatening the US down the line.

It increased from 2 to 4 or something like that. Still very low %

[LarryWx]

The 0Z/6Z model consensus, including GFS/Euro ensembles, tells me that although the CONUS isn’t safe yet, a recurve E of the CONUS remains heavily favored. Though it is further left than the 12Z, the 0Z UKMET is a left outlier of the dynamic models and it has a left bias, especially when it is a left outlier. Let’s see whether or not that non-UKMET recurve trend continues with the 12Z consensus.

[Aric Dunn]

That weakness the models are showing reminds a lot of the weakness with IKE.

The similarities are interesting. just a little farther west with this one.

[GlennOBX]

Sorry for the 101 level question.

Will the 12z Euro have enough of a handle on TD10 to have a decent idea of what's going on with it? Or will we need to wait for the next run?

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry for the 101 level question.

Will the 12z Euro have enough of a handle on TD10 to have a decent idea of what's going on with it? Or will we need to wait for the next run?

It will take days of runs. to hopefully get a handle on it.

[chris_fit]

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS drops it after 70+ hours

[Aric Dunn]

I Dont think the GFS has a clue with what is happening with anything anymore.. it is almost comical.

[sma10]

That weakness the models are showing reminds a lot of the weakness with IKE.

The similarities are interesting. just a little farther west with this one.

But I'm confused with this. Wasn't there NO weakness with Ike and it got driven SW?

[Aric Dunn]

That weakness the models are showing reminds a lot of the weakness with IKE.

The similarities are interesting. just a little farther west with this one.

But I'm confused with this. Wasn't there NO weakness with Ike and it got driven SW?

IT was initially supposed to turn out to sea it started the bend nw then the weakness closed and it got driven SW>

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: fish storm way east of the prior two runs

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 12.9N 44.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 14.1N 46.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 14.9N 48.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.8N 50.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 16.7N 53.7W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 17.8N 56.5W 1003 42
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 18.8N 59.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 20.6N 62.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 22.7N 64.4W 1007 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 25.0N 65.0W 1005 36
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 27.4N 64.2W 996 49
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 30.1N 62.0W 974 79
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 34.0N 60.1W 958 85

[chris_fit]

12Z UKMET: fish storm way east of the prior two runs

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 12.9N 44.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 14.1N 46.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 14.9N 48.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.8N 50.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 16.7N 53.7W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 17.8N 56.5W 1003 42
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 18.8N 59.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 20.6N 62.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 22.7N 64.4W 1007 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 25.0N 65.0W 1005 36
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 27.4N 64.2W 996 49
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 30.1N 62.0W 974 79
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 34.0N 60.1W 958 85

Yup, massive shift by the UKMET. ICON is also very safely away from the USA. GFS... well is the GFS... and also out to Sea from what's left of it

[chris_fit]

Just an observation, all storms (I think) so far this season have gone RIGHT of early guidance especially when nearing the US. Will the trend continue?

[GlennOBX]

Sorry for the 101 level question.

Will the 12z Euro have enough of a handle on TD10 to have a decent idea of what's going on with it? Or will we need to wait for the next run?

It will take days of runs. to hopefully get a handle on it.

I appreciate the response. I didn't mean "final decision" kind of "handle". I know the model runs will change tracks. I just wondered if the 12z would be a "throwaway" as far as 10 was concerned.

[Emmett_Brown]

Given how volatile the upper level pattern has been on the models, even at short time frames, I don't trust the models beyond 72 hours. In fact, the GFS is still having trouble with Humberto (will he head quickly NE, or will he curve back NW for a bit before heading NE). Statistically, a recurve before CONUS is a high probability bet, which is what I am guessing, but my guess is not based on models.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS show no CONUS hits from the few members that show actual full fledged TCs from what I can best tell.

[sma10]

Just an observation, all storms (I think) so far this season have gone RIGHT of early guidance especially when nearing the US. Will the trend continue?

I guess we'll have to see. The trend this season has been for the models to FOOL us in the long range. There was a time when Dorian and 95L seemed "sure fire" threats to someplace along the CONUS with very little hope of early recurve. Maybe TD10 has a similar trick up its sleeve. The good news is we should know fairly quickly in nowcasting it's motion to see if it tracks left or right of expectations the next couple days.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z HWRF goes south of PR and Hispaniola as a strong hurricane.

[plasticup]

12z HWRF with a wildly different solution: Category 5 in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola