Disturbed weather in GOM (Is INVEST 98L)

[SoupBone]

Interesting that the 12Z CMC backed off of its widespread rainfall totals in the Greater Houston Area, putting only around 2" through the 26th. It was showing 20" just a day ago.

[SoupBone]

Still looks like a trof axis. Convection appears to have decreased over the past few hours. I still think it has a better chance of developing over the next 24-36 hrs than 97L does in 48 hours.

Development though isn't really the bigger discussion, the rainfall totals are.

Houston area modeling is all over the place.

[wxman22]

12z EURO

[GCANE]

KGUL
Winds shifted to the south and picking up speed

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kgul

[GCANE]

700mb vort tightening and strengthening.
Zoom out in Visible Satellite and can see the overall spin starting.

[SoupBone]

12z EURO

https://i.ibb.co/tL0k21L/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019091612-86-490-220.png

I can't see whatever image it is you're trying to link.

[GCANE]

KHQI
East winds up to 14 knots now.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=khqi

Its going.

[GCANE]

KGUL.
Winds up to 17 knots

[wxman57]

Note that these obs from oil platforms are typically way above typical 10m surface obs. The base of the platform may be over 100 ft above the water. Sometimes they put the anemometer atop the derrick, which maybe 150 ft or more above the deck of the platform. I couldn't find the anemometer height on the NDBC website.

[tailgater]

Yeah GCane if they were a HH out there I think they could close it off but T-storms are still pop up in nature, too popping and waning in my opinion. Certainly looks a better than 20 % to these old eyes. We’ve have a nice cooling shower here around noonish and the temps have stayed below 80 degrees

[SoupBone]

Anyone have the Euro model rainfall estimates?

EDIT: I found it. These rainfall models are all over creation, from 2" to 30" around Houston.

[wxman22]

https://i.ibb.co/tL0k21L/us-model-en-08 ... 90-220.png

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: https://i.ibb.co/tL0k21L/us-model-en-08 ... 90-220.png

Thanks, but for some reason I can't see anything or open it.

[bohaiboy]

Note that these obs from oil platforms are typically way above typical 10m surface obs. The base of the platform may be over 100 ft above the water. Sometimes they put the anemometer atop the derrick, which maybe 150 ft or more above the deck of the platform. I couldn't find the anemometer height on the NDBC website.

KGUL is 50.6 m or 166'. I am assuming above MSL. If you open any NDBC site, the elevation of the anemometer is listed just below the Lat/Lon coordinates near the top of the page.

[wxman57]

Here's a close-up of the Houston area. Each model has heavy rain, but they are all in different areas. Key is not to focus on any one area, just at the potential for heavy rain somewhere in SE Texas through Thursday.

[SoupBone]

Updated 00Z QPF -

[StormLogic]

wait till you see the totals 120hr +

[SoupBone]

Is it just my eyes, or does this system appear to be drying up some? Much less flaring than earlier.

[stormlover2013]

Nam puts Houston and Beaumont on blast


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91618&fh=1

[mpic]

Splendora NE of Houston. Winds picking up here already ahead of some nasty radar.