ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

quite the feeder band

[wx98]

They bumped it to 85 mph overnight. Recon is going in

[Kazmit]

It looks like it's expanding. Size will matter a lot in terms of how much of an impact Bermuda gets.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

[LarryWx]

Radar and Sat still show it just heading straight east well south of the models and nhc track.. little to no north component.

We will find out overnight with the 00z run if there is any substantial tack shift..

Yeah, the N component has been lacking although the E component has been good. Both are important as far as minimizing the threat of a turn back to the US. I’m sticking with my own guideline of getting to at least 70W by 0Z Thu (8 PM Wed) to make the US essentially safe and not reaching 72W by then as being downright dangerous for the US. With a further south than expected track, which may very occur based on earlier this evening’s ENE movement, I’d want it to at least get to 70W by then.

He appears to finally be accelerating ENE somewhat. This is encouraging to me that he hopefully can do what the major dynamic operational model consensus has been showing, staying OTS other than possibly for Bermuda.

[Buck]

A bit surprised by how little Bermuda has been mentioned in the discussions up to now, but I guess it’s been early. It is officially in the 3 day cone as of 5am though.

[EquusStorm]

From initially forecast to be a central Gulf rainmaker to putting us on the dry northerly flow side reinforcing our drought and near triple digit highs, Humberto is gonna have to pull some spectacular stunts to remove my grudge. Hopefully can miss Bermuda and pull a major out of the hat.

[Siker]

Cat 2 seems likely today, major by tomorrow morning given the convective bursts wrapping around the eye now.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar and Sat still show it just heading straight east well south of the models and nhc track.. little to no north component.

We will find out overnight with the 00z run if there is any substantial tack shift..

Yeah, the N component has been lacking although the E component has been good. Both are important as far as minimizing the threat of a turn back to the US. I’m sticking with my own guideline of getting to at least 70W by 0Z Thu (8 PM Wed) to make the US essentially safe and not reaching 72W by then as being downright dangerous for the US. With a further south than expected track, which may very occur based on earlier this evening’s ENE movement, I’d want it to at least get to 70W by then.

He appears to finally be accelerating ENE somewhat. This is encouraging to me that he hopefully can do what the major dynamic operational model consensus has been showing, staying OTS other than possibly for Bermuda.

yeah finally looks on it's way. get it past Bermuda and say good bye lol..

[wxman57]

A bit surprised by how little Bermuda has been mentioned in the discussions up to now, but I guess it’s been early. It is officially in the 3 day cone as of 5am though.

Stop looking at the cone as an impact zone. Impacts often extend well outside the cone. The cone should be retired, perhaps replaced by a wind probability area. Too many people interpret it as a threat area. It's just a representation of the average track error over the past 5 seasons. It says nothing about the current level of track uncertainty or potential impact area. Anyway, our forecast has Humberto passing close enough to Bermuda on Thursday to produce hurricane conditions there.

[Buck]

A bit surprised by how little Bermuda has been mentioned in the discussions up to now, but I guess it’s been early. It is officially in the 3 day cone as of 5am though.

Stop looking at the cone as an impact zone. Impacts often extend well outside the cone. The cone should be retired, perhaps replaced by a wind probability area. Too many people interpret it as a threat area. It's just a representation of the average track error over the past 5 seasons. It says nothing about the current level of track uncertainty or potential impact area. Anyway, our forecast has Humberto passing close enough to Bermuda on Thursday to produce hurricane conditions there.

Please don’t preach to me, I didn’t say anything that required that response. I was just saying that considering the potential impact to bermuda, I’m surprised nhc hadn’t mentioned them much yet and now they are in the 3 day cone so impact is only getting closer.

[artist]

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 12:05:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.80N 76.74W
B. Center Fix Location: 282 statute miles (454 km) to the SE (137°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,245m (4,085ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 225° at 4kts (From the SW at 5mph)
F. Eye Character (Undecoded): SPIRAL OPEN SW
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 62kts (71.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WSW (257°) of center fix at 11:57:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 342° at 73kts (From the NNW at 84.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix at 11:57:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 72kts (82.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 12:11:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 220° at 88kts (From the SW at 101.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 12:13:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.75 nautical miles

[wxman57]

A bit surprised by how little Bermuda has been mentioned in the discussions up to now, but I guess it’s been early. It is officially in the 3 day cone as of 5am though.

Stop looking at the cone as an impact zone. Impacts often extend well outside the cone. The cone should be retired, perhaps replaced by a wind probability area. Too many people interpret it as a threat area. It's just a representation of the average track error over the past 5 seasons. It says nothing about the current level of track uncertainty or potential impact area. Anyway, our forecast has Humberto passing close enough to Bermuda on Thursday to produce hurricane conditions there.

Please don’t preach to me, I didn’t say anything that required that response. I was just saying that considering the potential impact to bermuda, I’m surprised nhc hadn’t mentioned them much yet and now they are in the 3 day cone so impact is only getting closer.

The NHC is mentioning Bermuda in their public advisories. Impacts there are beyond 48 hrs, so no watches issued yet.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.

[wx98]

Second pass by the plane 977.3 extrap, lower than the first pass

[Buck]

Stop looking at the cone as an impact zone. Impacts often extend well outside the cone. The cone should be retired, perhaps replaced by a wind probability area. Too many people interpret it as a threat area. It's just a representation of the average track error over the past 5 seasons. It says nothing about the current level of track uncertainty or potential impact area. Anyway, our forecast has Humberto passing close enough to Bermuda on Thursday to produce hurricane conditions there.

Please don’t preach to me, I didn’t say anything that required that response. I was just saying that considering the potential impact to bermuda, I’m surprised nhc hadn’t mentioned them much yet and now they are in the 3 day cone so impact is only getting closer.

The NHC is mentioning Bermuda in their public advisories. Impacts there are beyond 48 hrs, so no watches issued yet.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.

Yes, I specifically mentioned the discussions in my first post. But I don’t want to sidetrack this discussion anymore.

[EquusStorm]

Much more symmetrical presentation and impressive CDO as compared to yesterday evening. No doubt on the way to cat 2 and maybe cat 3.

[jasons2k]

Healthy looking storm. Hopefully not a major issue for Bermuda.

[plasticup]

A bit surprised by how little Bermuda has been mentioned in the discussions up to now, but I guess it’s been early. It is officially in the 3 day cone as of 5am though.

In Bermuda we are sometimes known by another name: "out to sea." When everyone starts saying OTS, our ears prick up

[plasticup]

Much more symmetrical presentation and impressive CDO as compared to yesterday evening. No doubt on the way to cat 2 and maybe cat 3.

NHC now forecasts Cat 3 at 36 hours.

[DioBrando]

DING-DING-DING!
Did I just see a little 'M' in the forecast zone?
Gasp!
They're now forecasting a 115mph major!

[wx98]

Looks like it’s starting to clear out an eye