ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Bermuda club really needs to remain at attention for this one.

Preparations are well underway; the grocery stores are almost out of beer.

On a side note, I know someone who has family in Ft Lauderdale and their Dorian preparation was 3 cases of beer

[Emmett_Brown]

Humberto has an interesting structure; recon is finding a band of stronger winds quite a distance away from the center... it is present in the NW and SE quads so far (recon hasn't sampled the NE and SW quads yet, so not sure if this maximum is a complete ring, but it could be): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Sciencerocks]

[DioBrando]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1191/oVMLex.gif

Das an eye?

[Kazmit]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/1191/oVMLex.gif

Das an eye?

Yep, the NHC mentioned it in the 11am discussion. Should easily reach hurricane strength tonight.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressures appear to be around 989mb now.

[sikkar]

Looks like still dealing with dry air in the southern part? Other wise that circulation is amazing.

[wx98]

It appears that the pressure is beginning to fall at a pretty decent clip. The winds should respond shortly...

[wx98]

5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15
Location: 29.3°N 78.0°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

[DioBrando]

5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15
Location: 29.3°N 78.0°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Wonder if a major is possible tbh

[Hypercane_Kyle]

5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15
Location: 29.3°N 78.0°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Wonder if a major is possible tbh

Very probable, if not likely. I think it'll peak around 110 knots.

[Emmett_Brown]

New recon mission about to hit the center from the SW quad: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Michele B]

Appears to be at
Coordinates: 29.117N 78.133W

This is about where the model consensus has him at 18Z though a tiny bit (10 miles?) west of the NHC. There shouldn't be any appreciable west component of motion from here...I'd say no further west than about 78.3 W. If it were to get to something like 78.5 W, then I'd start to wonder a little about the models. But I really don't see that happening.

So do we all have to agree that after all the hand-wringing and second guessing, the models did purty durn good???

[Emmett_Brown]

Appears to be at
Coordinates: 29.117N 78.133W

This is about where the model consensus has him at 18Z though a tiny bit (10 miles?) west of the NHC. There shouldn't be any appreciable west component of motion from here...I'd say no further west than about 78.3 W. If it were to get to something like 78.5 W, then I'd start to wonder a little about the models. But I really don't see that happening.

So do we all have to agree that after all the hand-wringing and second guessing, the models did purty durn good???

I think this storm is a good example of how you don't really know where a storm will go until the center forms. At first, it looked like this was headed for the GOM, but when the center formed way NE of where the models had been showing, the path changed dramatically. So yeah, I think the models did fine... they just got the location of formation part wrong, which is a difficult thing to predict anyway.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon suggests Humberto is continuing to gradually strengthen, MSLP down to ~987mb.

[DioBrando]

Recon suggests Humberto is continuing to gradually strengthen, MSLP down to ~987mb.

Reminds me of a western version of Eddy 2014 for some reason

[Kazmit]

The Bermuda Weather Service's forecast discussion is very interesting. It says that they expect to issue a TS watch tomorrow morning.
http://www.weather.bm/ForecastDiscussion.asp

[Highteeld]

Not super often you see any semblance of an "eye" in a tropical storm

[DioBrando]

The Bermuda Weather Service's forecast discussion is very interesting. It says that they expect to issue a TS watch tomorrow morning.
http://www.weather.bm/ForecastDiscussion.asp

Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Sunday, September 15, 2019  22:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Kimberley Zuill 

NOWCAST (This evening - Tonight): Tropical Storm Humberto is a potential treat to Bermuda.

>treat

wat

[Aric Dunn]

Doing some cyclonic loops. actually moved sw from the earlier recon mission.

had better start moving..