ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Emmett_Brown wrote:boca wrote:If half the ensembles are showing a loop than a turn west the NHC isn’t buying it unless this is new info after the 5pm update came out.
Well, the NHC blends all the tracks together... which is why they show very slow motion for the next 72 hours or so. So, they sort of are taking those into account, but just as an average.
They wouldn't take them into account unless the majority of the ensembles including the Operational start showing a loop, tonight's run will tell us if the trend continues or not.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63
There were some runs last year where it was taking Mangkhut below 900 mb, but this one is up there. That was also around the time the HWRF broke and had the 777 mb pressure.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
No hint of a loop on the GFS, pretty much the same track and timing as the past 4 runs. A bit stronger though.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
12Z Parallel HWRF Ensemble mean is pretty close to the operational HWRF in both track and intensity. Individual members vary a bit with regard to forward speed, but the overall track of the members is fairly tightly clustered.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Looks like trumps hair blowing in the wind lol
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
1900hurricane wrote:Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63
There were some runs last year where it was taking Mangkhut below 900 mb, but this one is up there. That was also around the time the HWRF broke and had the 777 mb pressure.
I'm not sure 917mb is even physically possible at 34.4N.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:1900hurricane wrote:Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63
There were some runs last year where it was taking Mangkhut below 900 mb, but this one is up there. That was also around the time the HWRF broke and had the 777 mb pressure.
I'm not sure 917mb is even physically possible at 34.4N.
I'm fairly skeptical of the solution myself to be fair. While I don't necessarily think it's impossible, it's probably one of those several standard deviation events, which I'm doubtful we're going to be seeing here. Fairly strong hurricane, sure. 917 mb? Ehh...
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:1900hurricane wrote:Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63
There were some runs last year where it was taking Mangkhut below 900 mb, but this one is up there. That was also around the time the HWRF broke and had the 777 mb pressure.
I'm not sure 917mb is even physically possible at 34.4N.[/quote
Dorian hit 910.
Strong pressure gradient NE FL at present.
Never say never
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
I'm not sure if it's an issue of pressure gradient as much as it is the Atlantic being able to support a Category 5 at that latitude... wasn't Michael the furthest north Cat 5 on record in our basin? And on that point, what's the strongest recorded Atlantic storm that's been observed north of 30N?
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I'm not sure if it's an issue of pressure gradient as much as it is the Atlantic being able to support a Category 5 at that latitude... wasn't Michael the furthest north Cat 5 on record in our basin? And on that point, what's the strongest recorded Atlantic storm that's been observed north of 30N?
Camille at 150 kt/900 mb at 30.3ºN. It's a very small list for either >=125 kt or <= 935 mb above 30ºN though.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
storm4u wrote:18z Euro?
no 18z yet look come out early sunday morning
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Tight consensus here. I think that loop scenario looks extremely unlikely now:
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
floridasun78 wrote:storm4u wrote:18z Euro?
no 18z yet look come out early sunday morning
0z is early morning 18z starts around 8pm
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
gatorcane wrote:Tight consensus here. I think that loop scenario looks extremely unlikely now:
https://i.postimg.cc/mg7THF0b/09-L-tracks-00z.png
They been like that all day...
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.
Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off
Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:The trend of more and more EPS showing loop or stalls continues including heading to texas and central gulf coast.
Some sort of loop is looking quite possible.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off
Let’s hope for no loop as if that happens we would have no idea where this is going
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