ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Its not going make the 00z position from the 0z/6z model runs.

Its much slower than the 00z run.

Likely wont make the 6z position of the 12z run either.

Aric, are you referring to the Euro? Just checking, thanks

[robbielyn]

due to my beach vacay st pete siesta key, i hv a question about the ull. ok it looks like a wingspan covering most of the gulf with convection south in st pete. if it is supposed to consolidate and become ts heading towards texas, will the clouds near the west coast of fl move further west? i feel snadwiched between the two entities and want both to stay away from the central eastern gulf for 9 days at least. that gulf convention is going to move out westward right?

[LarryWx]

Its not going make the 00z position from the 0z/6z model runs.

Its much slower than the 00z run.

Likely wont make the 6z position of the 12z run either.

Aric, I don't see that. Vis sats tell me it is already near the 12Z Euro hour 12 position for 8 PM, north of the lat of Little Abaco. What are you seeing that's different?

[northjaxpro]

due to my beach vacay st pete siesta key, i hv a question about the ull. ok it looks like a wingspan covering most of the gulf with convection south in st pete. if it is supposed to consolidate and become ts heading towards texas, will the clouds near the west coast of fl move further west? i feel snadwiched between the two entities and want both to stay away from the central eastern gulf for 9 days at least. that gulf convention is going to move out westward right?

Yes. Whatever becomes of the Gulf system will move ashore on the TX coast by late Tuesday.

[Aric Dunn]

Its not going make the 00z position from the 0z/6z model runs.

Its much slower than the 00z run.

Likely wont make the 6z position of the 12z run either.

Aric, I don't see that. Vis sats tell me it is already near the 12Z Euro hour 12 position for 8 PM, north of the lat of Little Abaco. What are you seeing that's different?

Ill post image when i get back home. I had it all over layed with last recon fix models and sat. I posted a few pages back. With the distance it needed to travel and how fast it needed to go.. it has not done that

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon just missed the center slightly to the N. Center must be on the S edge of the convection still.

[GCANE]

1002.9 mb extrap

[Hammy]

Its not going make the 00z position from the 0z/6z model runs.

Its much slower than the 00z run.

Likely wont make the 6z position of the 12z run either.

It seems like nothing wants to move very quickly this year, be it the storms, steering patterns, or atmospheric waves. What affect is this going to have on the track down the road?

[Hurricaneman]

Its not going make the 00z position from the 0z/6z model runs.

Its much slower than the 00z run.

Likely wont make the 6z position of the 12z run either.

It seems like nothing wants to move very quickly this year, be it the storms, steering patterns, or atmospheric waves. What affect is this going to have on the track down the road?

Slower means it could stall and miss the connection with the weakness and head back west but as of now it’s a 20% chance of happening

[LarryWx]

Its not going make the 00z position from the 0z/6z model runs.

Its much slower than the 00z run.

Likely wont make the 6z position of the 12z run either.

Aric, I don't see that. Vis sats tell me it is already near the 12Z Euro hour 12 position for 8 PM, north of the lat of Little Abaco. What are you seeing that's different?

Ill post image when i get back home. I had it all over layed with last recon fix models and sat. I posted a few pages back. With the distance it needed to travel and how fast it needed to go.. it has not done that

The 5 NHC PM lat is 27.4 N, which is already at least as far north as the 12Z Euro's 8 PM position. So, the storm is moving north ahead of the 12Z Euro by at least 3 hours. So, I don't see why stalling or even slowing in relation to the models/NHC is being talked about. If anything it is the opposite.

The 11 AM NHC projection for 8 PM was 27.6 N and it was already at 27.4 at 5 PM.

[Nimbus]

Over the last 6 hours the center has not moved north very much but the high cirrus is expanding unrestricted and with 12 hour averaging later tonight..

[storm4u]

Almost drifting now? From the 5pm position to now it barely moved

[hipshot]

Almost drifting now? From the 5pm position to now it barely moved

Is recon still going in and when?

[LarryWx]

Over the last 6 hours the center has not moved north very much but the high cirrus is expanding unrestricted and with 12 hour averaging later tonight..

I don’t agree that it hasn’t moved N very much at least in relation to the Euro/NHC projections. If anything, it has moved faster.

[GCANE]

1001.6 mb extrap

[gatorcane]

I don’t see any NW movement looking at the satellite loops, almost looks NNE.

[Kazmit]

From 5am to 11am it moved at an avg speed of 8mph, while from 11am to 5pm it moved at 11mph. It has certainly moved today.

[GCANE]

Starting to wind up on MIMIC-TPW.
Looks like its gettng a good shot of juice out of the GOM thru the Straits.
Appears that stronger convection is beginning to wrap around the CoC.

[GCANE]

Recon VDM
27.46N 77.21W
1001mb

[GCANE]

Kermit
1000.6 mb extrap