ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Moving into a high CAPE ridge over the Gulf Stream

[Aric Dunn]

besides that cyclonic loop it did that swung it nw. it really is not moving much the past few hours .

[psyclone]

Looking dramatically better organized today. Nice outflow developing north of grand Bahama.

[floridasun78]

why their talk about loop this likely will going ne soon not looping so dont were loop coming from even cone have going NE

[gatorcane]

Got to hand it to the Euro. The GFS completely blew the forecast for this one.

[Aric Dunn]

center just did full cyclonic loop.. its starting to become exposed again.

[Aric Dunn]

[Michele B]

https://i.ibb.co/Nn00CBb/Capture.png

I wish it would move north or east or. NE.

AWAY from Abaco. They don’t need any more rain.

[Buck]

definitely getting his act together.

[Aric Dunn]

uh ohhh. big shift in the number EPS looping, stalling and turning west now..

[cjrciadt]

As sharp as the Jeanne Loop?

[GCANE]

Run-to-run, Euro strengthens the GOM system and positions Humberto more to the west.
Could be a big problem if the GOM system spins up even faster in the middle of the GOM.

[sponger]

Looks not to bad visually but on IR it is a absolute mess.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[jaxfladude]

How good is/are that model(s) ? Still more likely than not this is a threat to Bermuda/OTS ?

[northjaxpro]

The GOM system has been gradually organizing all throughout today. Looks like we may have a TC there in a couple of days .

Humberto is just crawling, and has been all day long. My God, Abaco and Grand Bahama Island is in the crosshairs for more potential impacts because Humberto just is not moving out. This is just crazy

[sponger]

The GOM system has been gradually organizing all throughout today. Looks like we may have a TC there in a couple of days .

Humberto is just crawling, andchas been all day long. My God The Abaco and Grand Bahama Island is in the crosshairs for more potential impacts because Humberto just is not moving out. This is just crazy

Frustratingly slow. The NHC thinks it is moving and they are the best at it. Maybe they are simply trying to will it to move.

[plasticup]

How good is/are that model(s) ? Still more likely than not this is a threat to Bermuda/OTS ?

Doesn’t look like a direct CONUS threat. Could still loop back in the 7-10 day range

[Emmett_Brown]

It looks to me like it has been moving slowly N for the past couple of hours, but it could be an optical illusion with all the spinning action and shear...

[Kazmit]

NHC mentioned in the discussion:

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has
begun to move very slowly toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees
at 6 kt.

So it isn't stalled out, it should continue to move.

[Aric Dunn]

Its not going make the 00z position from the 0z/6z model runs.

Its much slower than the 00z run.

Likely wont make the 6z position of the 12z run either.