ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#721 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:31 am

:uarrow: what is supposed to swing Humberto away from the US is the building ridge near Bermuda this morning that will slide to the south of the Island creating a stream of westerly winds from south of the Carolinas through Bermuda over the next few days. Even if it misses the weakness staying behind meandering east of FL it will will encounter shear eventually as an UL short wave swings down across the SE US by early to mid next week.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#722 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:33 am

NDG wrote::uarrow: what is supposed to swing Humberto away from the US is the building ridge near Bermuda this morning that will slide to the south of the Island creating a stream of westerly winds from south of the Carolinas through Bermuda over the next few days. Even if it misses the weakness staying behind meandering east of FL it will will encounter shear eventually as an UL short wave swings down across the SE US by early to mid next week.


Well like posted that Ridge is about 500 miles north of where the Euro forecasted it to be right now..
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#723 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:52 am

What would be the track implications of a stronger storm than expected?
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#724 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:05 am

Kazmit wrote:What would be the track implications of a stronger storm than expected?


Even more OTS.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#725 Postby Cat5James » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:07 am

Convection on the Northern quadrants appears to be moving due West on the latest frames of satellite imagery :eek:
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#726 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:15 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Kazmit wrote:What would be the track implications of a stronger storm than expected?


Even more OTS.

So an even tighter turn and closer to Bermuda? :roll:
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#727 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:19 am

Cat5James wrote:Convection on the Northern quadrants appears to be moving due West on the latest frames of satellite imagery :eek:


The lower level circulation is much more symmetrical rotating around south then southeast.
Could be some shear near the 300 mb layer, but at that altitude its outflow being ventilated away..
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#728 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:20 am

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#729 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:21 am


what you trying say?
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#730 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:04 pm

average track error. so far..

UKmet is doing the best by far. offical has been off by 100 miles at 24hrs

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#731 Postby TheProfessor » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:14 pm

Humberto organizing while it's stalled just east of the Northern Bahamas is certainly something you don't want to see.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#732 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:20 pm

How long stationary before it messes with the models
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#733 Postby hohnywx » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:25 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Kazmit wrote:What would be the track implications of a stronger storm than expected?


Even more OTS.


The guy lives in Bermuda and you reply “OTS” :roll:
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#734 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:34 pm

Kazmit wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Kazmit wrote:What would be the track implications of a stronger storm than expected?


Even more OTS.

So an even tighter turn and closer to Bermuda? :roll:


I'm aware of the threat to Bermuda. Yes, an even tighter turn out to sea towards Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#735 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:36 pm

StormingB81 wrote:How long stationary before it messes with the models


Well it is an average distance of 30 miles short of the 18z position. its has 60 miles to go reach the 00z position which means it needs to move at 9 mph to do so.

to answer your question. I would say at least 6 to 12 hours.

or if it just continues to come up short. just have to wait and see
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#736 Postby wx98 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:38 pm

It’s no longer stationary per recon, now moving NW to the north of Great Abaco
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#737 Postby wx98 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:39 pm

2:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 14
Location: 27.1°N 77.1°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#738 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:43 pm

Wrapping up

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#739 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:48 pm

Starting to look good now. Looks like it is off to the races.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#740 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:51 pm

floridasun78 wrote:

what you trying say?


Those are the Recon fixes relative to Abacos
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