ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The thing to watch for is how long it takes to get off the SE coast before the recurve, if it takes longer it could loop back but that’s the ensemble minority as of now. The majority head towards Bermuda as of now so my thinking is towards that direction but poor Bahamas don’t need what’s going on in their recovery so let’s hope it isn’t too bad there with this system

[flamingosun]

The continued eastward trend has yielded a dramatic reduction in TS wind probs in Florida. It make me wonder...If a TS watch hadn't already been issued for the east coast...would it be issued with this forecast? My guess is no. It's looking like a "legacy" watch now. Hopefully the trend continues. I would remain very interested in Bermuda with that 5 day..

Then again, there's this from the 5 PM . . .

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

I realize it's language we're accustomed to seeing in these advisories, but then, it does make me wonder if there's a reason to include it. Can someone enlighten me?

[StormingB81]

FINALLY!

well at least I can call it something now... lol


but nothing much has changed., just waiting to see how the orginization pans out and timing..

we can through this model set out if the southern vort takes over..

convection is blowing up with it now.

Do you think it’s possible? Northern vort looks much stronger

[ronjon]

Pretty generous interpretation of a TD. But I suppose it will get its act together eventually lol.

[psyclone]

The continued eastward trend has yielded a dramatic reduction in TS wind probs in Florida. It make me wonder...If a TS watch hadn't already been issued for the east coast...would it be issued with this forecast? My guess is no. It's looking like a "legacy" watch now. Hopefully the trend continues. I would remain very interested in Bermuda with that 5 day..

Then again, there's this from the 5 PM . . .

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

I realize it's language we're accustomed to seeing in these advisories, but then, it does make me wonder if there's a reason to include it. Can someone enlighten me?

I can't...beyond the usual cautionary language. Naturally the NHC doesn't want to drop headlines only to reissue them later. Plus a good trend can always start trending back. It's just interesting food for thought. I am not privy to the thresholds for a watch issuance. perhaps a pro could shed some light on this interesting topic

[crimi481]

Nine's energy may be transferred to new surface low in e.gulf?

[wxman57]

The continued eastward trend has yielded a dramatic reduction in TS wind probs in Florida. It make me wonder...If a TS watch hadn't already been issued for the east coast...would it be issued with this forecast? My guess is no. It's looking like a "legacy" watch now. Hopefully the trend continues. I would remain very interested in Bermuda with that 5 day..

Then again, there's this from the 5 PM . . .

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

I realize it's language we're accustomed to seeing in these advisories, but then, it does make me wonder if there's a reason to include it. Can someone enlighten me?

It's a watch, not a warning. It means that there is a possibility of tropical storm-force winds within the next 48 hrs. Since tropical storm-force winds are predicted to pass about 50-75 miles offshore, a watch is prudent.

[wxman57]

Nine's energy may be transferred to new surface low in e.gulf?

No, that's an upper-level low in the Gulf. Hopefully, it will bring us some rain in SE TX.

[hipshot]

Nine's energy may be transferred to new surface low in e.gulf?

No, that's an upper-level low in the Gulf. Hopefully, it will bring us some rain in SE TX.

Maybe north central Texas too? Naaaa, I doubt it.

[StormTracker]

Every season we seem to go through the same thing! What seems logical to us (amateur meteorologist wanna-be's) based on what we learn from real meteorologists here (and some very intelligent students that are close to be/will become meteorologists one day) never seems to add up! The NHC is always right (+/- a few minor errors with a few storms)! Is it the FSU SuperEnsemble or what??? That's why they get payed the big bucks! Let's how this one goes...ST

[Evenstar]

Look for the NHC track to keep shifting right today, along with a prediction for it to become a hurricane. Time for work...

A bit surprised to hear this from you.

I know, right? When wxman57 gets serious, I hear the red alert alarm from Star Trek in my head...

Edit: For the record, I was not suggesting anything about the status or potential of PTC 9. Just acknowledging my respect for wxman57's expertise.

[Aric Dunn]

THe southern Vort is digging in deep into the convection.. northern vort may lose.. hard to say..

[StormTracker]

THe southern Vort is digging in deep into the convection.. northern vort may lose.. hard to say..

Agree with you Aric, but read my earlier post...

[aperson]

THe southern Vort is digging in deep into the convection.. northern vort may lose.. hard to say..

Agree with you Aric, but read my earlier post...

conjecture, prediction, and verification is how we learn.

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon is in TD 9, and so far finding pressure a little lower, 1006 or so

[StormTracker]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5
MIMIC-TPW2 begs to differ with us Aric.

[StormTracker]

THe southern Vort is digging in deep into the convection.. northern vort may lose.. hard to say..

Agree with you Aric, but read my earlier post...

conjecture, prediction, and verification is how we learn.

True, but we've been doing this for a while and we always end up getting the "short end of the stick"!

[aperson]

True, but we've been doing this for a while and we always end up getting the "short end of the stick"!

True that I've been wrong about this thing too many times to count already and it isn't even a TS yet.

[GCANE]

Kermit measuring plenty of 35+ knot surface winds.

[GCANE]

62 mm/hr rain rate!
Levels typically seen in Cat 4 / 5 TCs.
Lots of room to intensify.