ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

TD 9 or weak TS Humberto is actually depicted in this 12Z GFS run to be just off shore Mayport 1008 mb on 18Z (2:00 p.m. ) Sunday Morning.

[wxman57]

Center forming way east (25.3N/74.3W), even east of the NHC's position. 12Z GFS initialized the center way too far west at 76.6W. That's 150 miles too far west. Tells you not to believe the 12Z GFS' track closer to the Florida coast.

[northjaxpro]

Center forming way east (25.3N/74.3W), even east of the NHC's position. 12Z GFS initialized the center way too far west at 76.6W. That's 150 miles too far west. Tells you not to believe the 12Z GFS' track closer to the Florida coast.

I posted this so you would throw cold water on this 57! I knew you would!! Right on cue!! LOL......

[Aric Dunn]

Should see upgrade by 5. if not earlier. given the impacts on the islands.

[wxman57]

Center forming way east (25.3N/74.3W), even east of the NHC's position. 12Z GFS initialized the center way too far west at 76.6W. That's 150 miles too far west. Tells you not to believe the 12Z GFS' track closer to the Florida coast.

I posted this so you would throw cold water on this 57! I knew you would!! Right on cue!! LOL......

Sorry, I didn't see your post before I posted mine.

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, looks like we have a center reformation underway and that this would even further lessen the potential for an impact here in South Florida. Not 100% in the clear, of course, but certainly starting to hope/expect we may actually see some sun vs. have a washout of a weekend!

[Blown Away]

Thinking the loop idea for Florida is unlikely due to Nine getting above 30N before beginning a loop. I believe Betsy and Jeanne looped farther South. The hard right turn and due E movement the models are showing seems extreme too.

[northjaxpro]

Good to see you 57! I have been busy over here these past few weeks dealing with these storms as you can image. Been on edge. Just taking the edge off by having a little fun at your expense. But, I respect you and the job you and the other moderators do on here! You all do a great job running this site!

[xironman]

Looks like they have found the dominate center. Now we have something to track

[LarryWx]

Assuming the even further east center is confirmed, that should just about seal the deal for an easy OTS with regard to the US and a relaxing weekend!

[northjaxpro]

Assuming the even further east center is confirmed, that should just about seal the deal for an easy OTS with regard to the US and a relaxing weekend!

Larry, we need a good relaxing weekend down here after these past couple of weeks my friend. God knows I need it!!

[Aric Dunn]

Still a lot of dynamics to go.. we also have that other vort.. they both are rotating around.. the new center is likely to be swung more w to wnw until the old vort is absorbed.

also still have the timing to deal with. if it keeps its slow motion/stalled and that ridge build before it can escape then things change again. There is a reason why the ensembles are soo spread out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Threat to the USA and the Bahamas is quickly diminishing IMO with the developments today. Might get a nice, beautiful hurricane to track that'll generate some nice ACE too. Bermuda may have to watch out though.

[northjaxpro]

Still a lot of dynamics to go.. we also have that other vort.. they both are rotating around.. the new center is likely to be swung more w to wnw until the old vort is absorbed.

also still have the timing to deal with. if it keeps its slow motion/stalled and that ridge build before it can escape then things change again. There is a reason why the ensembles are soo spread out.

You are right Aric. I never will take my eye off the situation for sure. I've been through this for too long to never, ever get complacent. But, I am liking the farther east trends continuing today. Hopefully, we won't get anymore surprises from TD 9 / soon-to be Humberto with loops , stalls closer to the coast. I am hopeful the system will get far enough offshore to not impact anyone with severe impacts. However, I need the rest after these past two weeks, so yeah, please TD 9, STAY AWAY!!!!.

[Aric Dunn]

Still a lot of dynamics to go.. we also have that other vort.. they both are rotating around.. the new center is likely to be swung more w to wnw until the old vort is absorbed.

also still have the timing to deal with. if it keeps its slow motion/stalled and that ridge build before it can escape then things change again. There is a reason why the ensembles are soo spread out.

You are right Aric. I never will take my eye off the situation for sure. I've been through this for too long to never, ever get complacent. But, I am liking the farther east trends continuing today. Hopefully, we won't get anymore surprises from TD 9 / soon-to be Humberto with loops , stalls closer to the coast. I am hopeful the system will get far enough offshore to not impact anyone with severe impacts. However, I need the rest after these past two weeks, so yeah, please TD 9, STAY AWAY!!!!.

And Recon showing that the two vorts are still intimately connected. leaving open all sorts of erratic motion scenarios

[jdjaguar]

Is the center roughly 25.6N 74.5W ?

[xironman]

Threat to the USA and the Bahamas is quickly diminishing IMO with the developments today. Might get a nice, beautiful hurricane to track that'll generate some nice ACE too. Bermuda may have to watch out though.

The timing for points NC and north is important, 24hrs later and the steering currents could block the storm.

[GCANE]

Outflow in all quads.
Say goodbye to the UL trough.

[Ucfkid]

What's causing the storms to miss Florida?

[northjaxpro]

Outflow in all quads.
Say goodbye to the UL trough.

https://i.imgur.com/0nS5Euf.png

For the first time, I am beginning to see cirrus outflow (fanning of high cirrus clouds) as well in all quadrants. I agree this system is finally able to really breathe. It should start to organize now , with shear dropping off rapidly it appears, and an anticyclone is getting established over it.