ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

HH haven't report any eddy's yet and found a distinct wind shift just ssw of previous position. This is just the first pass so we shall see if we get an upgrade to depression this morning.

[GCANE]

Feeder band developing and being pulled into the hot-tower hub

[LarryWx]

Looks like 95L should miss the whole U.S.

Although still not certain, I agree with “should” as I think the chance for the center to stay east and miss the entire US based on nowcasting (center forming east vs position of model runs that earlier hit) is now 80% or so. Remember that the GFS continues to play catch-up.
I now think that the stall E of N FL-SC followed by a left turn into the US is getting close to being off the table. Although only a very slight chance, I now think there’s actually a better chance for this to be so far south that it loops back into the FL Straits or far S FL rather than into N FL-NC. But again, that chance is small right now and a never hit US track is a very heavy bet right now. The trend is your friend.

Just an FYI.. 6z euro turns ese to se with large ridge building and west coast trough much weaker..

the idea of the loop may not be over yet..

and given its current stalled state... its slowly growing on me.


https://i.ibb.co/k1bHTtT/1.gif

Yeah, check out the 6Z Euro ensemble if you’re able to. I can’t post it as it is private/paid, but the 6Z run has even more and stronger members looping back toward S FL/FL Straits area than the 0Z. At least 15% of its members (8+ of its 51 members) do that kind of thing. To compare, yesterday’s 12Z had only about 2 members doing that. The models keep playing catch-up. So, one has to wonder.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon just flew through the vort in yellow. but that vort is mocing sw to almost south now. so its rotating around something larger. given the convective pattern, something more substantial is likely associated with that curved band feature with something being inside the blue circle.

[Aric Dunn]

Although still not certain, I agree with “should” as I think the chance for the center to stay east and miss the entire US based on nowcasting (center forming east vs position of model runs that earlier hit) is now 80% or so. Remember that the GFS continues to play catch-up.
I now think that the stall E of N FL-SC followed by a left turn into the US is getting close to being off the table. Although only a very slight chance, I now think there’s actually a better chance for this to be so far south that it loops back into the FL Straits or far S FL rather than into N FL-NC. But again, that chance is small right now and a never hit US track is a very heavy bet right now. The trend is your friend.

Just an FYI.. 6z euro turns ese to se with large ridge building and west coast trough much weaker..

the idea of the loop may not be over yet..

and given its current stalled state... its slowly growing on me.


https://i.ibb.co/k1bHTtT/1.gif

Yeah, check out the 6Z Euro ensemble if you’re able to. I can’t post it as it is private/paid, but the 6Z run has even more and stronger members looping back toward S FL/FL Straits area than the 0Z. At least 15% of its members (8+ of its 51 members) do that kind of thing. The models keep playing catch-up. So, one has to wonder.

I have the 6z ensembles but they never load on Ryan's site for some reason for me.

[wxman57]

I see that the consensus model (TVCN) that the NHC typically follows now takes the center about 100 miles off the coast of Florida this weekend. It's even a little east of my track. Turns ENE well south of the Carolinas (between 30N-31N). NHC is always reluctant to indicate a decreasing threat along a coast, so they will be slow to adjust the track farther offshore today. Their mission is to protect the general public, so they are quite cautious about making any changes that might indicate a decreased risk until they are 100% certain.

[Aric Dunn]

Just an FYI.. 6z euro turns ese to se with large ridge building and west coast trough much weaker..

the idea of the loop may not be over yet..

and given its current stalled state... its slowly growing on me.


https://i.ibb.co/k1bHTtT/1.gif

Yeah, check out the 6Z Euro ensemble if you’re able to. I can’t post it as it is private/paid, but the 6Z run has even more and stronger members looping back toward S FL/FL Straits area than the 0Z. At least 15% of its members (8+ of its 51 members) do that kind of thing. The models keep playing catch-up. So, one has to wonder.

I have the 6z ensembles but they never load on Ryan's site for some reason for me.

REcon hopefully flies farther east to check out the curved band. outflow is expanding but still being undercut some. they should find a better defined circ to the east.

Look it loaded today.. lol 6z EPS loopy loop loops

[GCANE]

That feeder band is quickly evolving.
I think they'll find something at the hot-tower hub.
Lotsa helicity at the hub.

[GCANE]

That feeder band is quickly evolving.
I think they'll find something at the hot-tower hub.
Lotsa helicity at the hub.

Coming up to the hub

[LarryWx]

Yeah, check out the 6Z Euro ensemble if you’re able to. I can’t post it as it is private/paid, but the 6Z run has even more and stronger members looping back toward S FL/FL Straits area than the 0Z. At least 15% of its members (8+ of its 51 members) do that kind of thing. The models keep playing catch-up. So, one has to wonder.

I have the 6z ensembles but they never load on Ryan's site for some reason for me.

REcon hopefully flies farther east to check out the curved band. outflow is expanding but still being undercut some. they should find a better defined circ to the east.

Look it loaded today.. lol 6z EPS loopy loop loops

https://i.ibb.co/7KjXM8y/2.gif

That’s an informative loop and one can see the 8 or so of the 51 members on the SW tail that make one pause before calling an all clear for the US.

[Aric Dunn]

you can see the vort on the left edge of the loop moving south now. that means a larger circ is to the east and the convective pattern around where I drew the circle is show most likely where this is at. I sure hope they fly there.

[otowntiger]

I see that the consensus model (TVCN) that the NHC typically follows now takes the center about 100 miles off the coast of Florida this weekend. It's even a little east of my track. Turns ENE well south of the Carolinas (between 30N-31N). NHC is always reluctant to indicate a decreasing threat along a coast, so they will be slow to adjust the track farther offshore today. Their mission is to protect the general public, so they are quite cautious about making any changes that might indicate a decreased risk until they are 100% certain.

I am not surprised that it is looking more and more likely to miss Florida to the east (at least on the first pass). The Euro was on that trend and is holding steady on it. Climo of course very much in that camp. But the question I have is what do you think about the potential cyclonic loop that could bring it back towards the coast? I know that is further out than may be reasonable to predict, but what are your thoughts on that wxman57?

[wxman57]

The recon plane found the small, southward-moving vortex, but that's not a real center. The center may form farther east, beneath the mid-level rotation. That would keep the storm even farther off the east coast of Florida this weekend. Cyclonic loop? I'm not seeing such a loop indicated. It could stall for a bit on Monday, but nothing to indicate it would track toward the NE FL coast.

[GCANE]

Big-Ass Tower
Rotating Towers
Aric's Swirl
Feeder Band

Recon's flying the Feeder Band into the Big Ass Tower

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Big-Ass Tower
Rotating Towers
Aric's Swirl
Feeder Band

Recon's flying the Feeder Band into the Big Ass Tower

https://i.imgur.com/WsdBfaO.png

Somebody send this diagram to the NHC

[GCANE]

Flight level winds picking up, surface pressure dropping into the BAT

[Aric Dunn]

The recon plane found the small, southward-moving vortex, but that's not a real center. The center may form farther east, beneath the mid-level rotation. That would keep the storm even farther off the east coast of Florida this weekend. Cyclonic loop? I'm not seeing such a loop indicated. It could stall for a bit on Monday, but nothing to indicate it would track toward the NE FL coast.

almost half the EPS members show a loop now of some sort. even a lot of the GFS members show loop. the long it stays stalled the higher the chance we see some sort of a loop.

[Aric Dunn]

Big-Ass Tower
Rotating Towers
Aric's Swirl
Feeder Band

Recon's flying the Feeder Band into the Big Ass Tower

https://i.imgur.com/WsdBfaO.png

Why is my name on there ? lol

[GCANE]

Big-Ass Tower
Rotating Towers
Aric's Swirl
Feeder Band

Recon's flying the Feeder Band into the Big Ass Tower

https://i.imgur.com/WsdBfaO.png

Somebody send this diagram to the NHC

I should have put a GCANE watermark on it.

[GCANE]

Big-Ass Tower
Rotating Towers
Aric's Swirl
Feeder Band

Recon's flying the Feeder Band into the Big Ass Tower

https://i.imgur.com/WsdBfaO.png

Why is my name on there ? lol

That is where your swirl is.