ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

As long as the LLC stays decoupled from the MLC, its not going to develop significantly. Could a new LLC form? Sure..but with this broad elongated LLC seems unlikely or at the very least will take a long time to do so. I should never bet against the ECM, but perhaps in this case its overdoing development.

[ava_ati]

Looks like 95L should miss the whole U.S.

When cyclonic loops are involved, never say never, it could do wacky things with that High pressure moving in over the top of it

[ronjon]

LLC is moving now at a pretty good clip to the west - shear is still relentless in a west to east direction. This LLC will always be exposed with that set up unless the shear relaxes significantly.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=truecolor

[Emmett_Brown]

Hermine from 2016 had similar issues. The elongated LLC and disjointed MLC to the east took a long time to focus. That was a case where the LLC didn't follow the convection right away; it stayed in a highly sheared state for a while and trudged W; dragging the whole sloppy affair along with it. Each situation is different, but it can happen.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Have the SSTs in the Northern Bahamas recovered since Dorian, or are they still on the colder side, and could hinder development with this storm?

[GCANE]

Looks like the ULL in the GOM is quickly moving to the west and the trough is filling in with water vapor.
Shear is not going to last much longer.

[wzrgirl1]

LLC is moving now at a pretty good clip to the west - shear is still relentless in a west to east direction. This LLC will always be exposed with that set up unless the shear relaxes significantly.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=truecolor

Wow a really nice looking unnamed system.

[Aric Dunn]

Outflow is expanding nicrly today. Still being undercut. But definitely an imporvemt.

Recon should find it closed from last night. Probably multiple vorts. But the convective patter even farther east is interesting. I bet it ends up there.

Recon about to fly trough a virt right now that is moving wsw. So its rotating around larger circ fsrther east

[OuterBanker]

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday it was a potential disaster. Today safely out to sea. Could kick up waves with nice south east winds to clean them up. Ideal could be sunny skies and nice waves.

[Aric Dunn]

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday it was a potential disaster. Today safely out to sea. Could kick up waves with nice south east winds to clean them up. Ideal could be sunny skies and nice waves.

quite a few of the EPS members stall and loops this back. and that one crazy one that deepens and heads into the central gulf.. so not completely out of the woods.

most likely out to sea. but the longer this sits the higher likelyhood of it looping back.

[plasticup]

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday it was a potential disaster. Today safely out to sea. Could kick up waves with nice south east winds to clean them up. Ideal could be sunny skies and nice waves.

quite a few of the EPS members stall and loops this back. and that one crazy one that deepens and heads into the central gulf.. so not completely out of the woods.

most likely out to sea. but the longer this sits the higher likelyhood of it looping back.

https://i.ibb.co/zXm0zC7/Capture.png

Out to see, in this case, being Bermuda.

[CronkPSU]

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday it was a potential disaster. Today safely out to sea. Could kick up waves with nice south east winds to clean them up. Ideal could be sunny skies and nice waves.

sorry, still don't trust a stalled system with no developed center in a jet fuel environment...will continue to monitor it

[LarryWx]

Looks like 95L should miss the whole U.S.

Although still not certain, I agree with “should” as I think the chance for the center to stay east and miss the entire US based on nowcasting (center forming east vs position of model runs that earlier hit) is now 80% or so. Remember that the GFS continues to play catch-up.
I now think that the stall E of N FL-SC followed by a left turn into the US is getting close to being off the table. Although only a very slight chance, I now think there’s actually a better chance for this to be so far south that it loops back into the FL Straits or far S FL rather than into N FL-NC. But again, that chance is small right now and a never hit US track is a very heavy bet right now. The trend is your friend.

[Cat5James]

What a difference a day makes. Yesterday it was a potential disaster. Today safely out to sea. Could kick up waves with nice south east winds to clean them up. Ideal could be sunny skies and nice waves.

There is still much model disagreement.. nothing is "safely out to sea" as of yet

[Jr0d]

Looks like 95L should miss the whole U.S.

When cyclonic loops are involved, never say never, it could do wacky things with that High pressure moving in over the top of it

Im thinking a loop is on the table. When that happens forecasting becomes guesswork.

Hopefully it will go out to sea....but im not sold on that solution.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like 95L should miss the whole U.S.

Although still not certain, I agree with “should” as I think the chance for the center to stay east and miss the entire US based on nowcasting (center forming east vs position of model runs that earlier hit) is now 80% or so. Remember that the GFS continues to play catch-up.
I now think that the stall E of N FL-SC followed by a left turn into the US is getting close to being off the table. Although only a very slight chance, I now think there’s actually a better chance for this to be so far south that it loops back into the FL Straits or far S FL rather than into N FL-NC. But again, that chance is small right now and a never hit US track is a very heavy bet right now. The trend is your friend.

Just an FYI.. 6z euro turns ese to se with large ridge building and west coast trough much weaker..

the idea of the loop may not be over yet..

and given its current stalled state... its slowly growing on me.

[MississippiWx]

Looks like 95L should miss the whole U.S.

Although still not certain, I agree with “should” as I think the chance for the center to stay east and miss the entire US based on nowcasting (center forming east vs position of model runs that earlier hit) is now 80% or so. Remember that the GFS continues to play catch-up.
I now think that the stall E of N FL-SC followed by a left turn into the US is getting close to being off the table. Although only a very slight chance, I now think there’s actually a better chance for this to be so far south that it loops back into the FL Straits or far S FL rather than into N FL-NC. But again, that chance is small right now and a never hit US track is a very heavy bet right now. The trend is your friend.

Just an FYI.. 6z euro turns ese to se with large ridge building and west coast trough much weaker..

the idea of the loop may not be over yet..

and given its current stalled state... its slowly growing on me.


https://i.ibb.co/k1bHTtT/1.gif

I still believe the loop back to the coast is very much in play. This one is long from being a fish storm.

[facemane]

Have the SSTs in the Northern Bahamas recovered since Dorian, or are they still on the colder side, and could hinder development with this storm?

I read that it takes about a week for SST's to return to normal after a storm passes in another thread. I just checked NOAA's website. The water temps
around the Bahamas waters have returned to normal

[MississippiWx]

The overall structure of the storm looks much better this morning. The low level structure looks much improved, although it is still offset from the mid-level Vort a bit. One could see the surface Vort migrating towards the vigorous mid-level one today. A tropical depression or storm could be designated by this evening if the trends continue.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon passed through the first vort.. looks like they are heading east towards the larger and likely well-established circ.