ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aperson]

Who would have thought all of those early ICON runs with a TC just E of FL and well east of the then model consensus would now have an excellent chance to verify way too far west?! This kind of stuff is so fascinating and makes tracking these enjoyable because they are such a challenge.

I must say, if nothing else the ICON is interesting to have in the mix to protect against under-dispersion.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I have already several times mentioned this Larry and indeed it deserves mention again that the ICON was the very first to sniff out the far north and east solutuon of 95L / PTC 9 well before the big reliiable models. I definitely tip my hat to the model!

[GCANE]

Looks like the UL Trough is breaking down.
Convective debris flowing in from the west.
Convection firing off from the dryline where Mid-level moisture from 9 is over-riding Boundary-layer dry air.

[GCANE]

Really good ventilation

[GCANE]

Hour and a half ago.
Off-the-scale rain-rate hot tower.

[GCANE]

Hot pink claws.
This puppy is intensifying.

[wxman57]

Look for the NHC track to keep shifting right today, along with a prediction for it to become a hurricane. Time for work...

[GCANE]

That tower fired just to the SE of the Mid-Level Vort which is at 25.1N 75.2W
500mb vort definitely much tighter than yesterday.
Core is heating up.
This is sitting on the max convergence area of the LL wave axis.
Looks like it is also in the area with minimal shear due to the UL trough, which is starting to breakdown.

[xironman]

The Bahama radar shows it trying to close off east of Cat Island.

[NDG]

Glad to see this morning that it is still has an elongated circulation, a more defined LLC looks to not have developed just yet. That more westward track has not begun yet, the relentless westerly shear has been keeping the convection east of it.

[NDG]

On Bahamian radar the elongated circulation can be clearly seen, ENE of Cat Island.

[Kazmit]

Look for the NHC track to keep shifting right today, along with a prediction for it to become a hurricane. Time for work...

A bit surprised to hear this from you.

[Ken711]

Look for the NHC track to keep shifting right today, along with a prediction for it to become a hurricane. Time for work...

Do you think it will bend OTS eventually?

[CronkPSU]

looks like NHC pushed back possible florida east central coast arrival back by at least 12 hours, maybe the UCF/Stanford game won't be as wet as it looked like it would be from yesterday's forecast

[CronkPSU]

8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 13
Location: 25.1°N 75.3°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph

8AM update also says Air Force recon plane is en route

[wxman57]

I think it's more likely to clip the east end of Grand Bahama Island (NHC has west end) and stay about 70-80 miles off the Florida Coast (does not cross 80W) this weekend. Once it gets to about 30N, looks like it's going to put on the brakes and turn east, saying well off the coast of the Carolinas. This track would keep any TS winds east of Florida and well south of the Carolinas.

[Emmett_Brown]

The progressive upper level pattern combined with a slow moving system means model runs could continue to change. Model agreement is good out to about 24 - 48 hours. Nowcasting is almost as effective. This is where the pros earn their money... It's not what the models say, it's how they are used.

[GCANE]

Looks like its closing off on radar, east of Cat Island.

[SFLcane]

Looks like 95L should miss the whole U.S.

[NDG]

Weak naked LLC is just east of the northern tip of Cat Island, MLC is still west of it. What ill most like happen is that a new LLC will form later today closer to the MLC and convection.