ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[tropicwatch]

HH is up and on the way. Lets see what they can find.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[ronjon]

Looks worse to me today than it did yesterday - appears to be getting ripped apart by shear.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=95L&product=vis

[SFLcane]

Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Um what? Thought we were dealing with sheared environment?

[Aric Dunn]

Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Um what? Thought we were dealing with sheared environment?

Shear does not always equal to no development.

Overall the environment is condusive.

[psyclone]

Calendar tailwinds in mid September are more than sufficient to offset less than optimal conditions. It's sheared but it's tenacious and persistent which usually=eventual development. That doesn't necessarily mean a strong system...maybe just a lower end system. But our disturbance is already bringing weather to the Florida peninsula in the form of a tightening gradient and fast moving showers and storms.

[Aric Dunn]

12z euro seems more progressive with the trough lifting out. The ridge seems farther left.

[chaser1]

.

Didn't we just have this discussion with Dorian?? A stronger storm will be influenced less by troughs, than a weaker one?

Or was it the other way around?

Generally, it's the other way around. Stronger/deeper core storms are more apt to feel the effects of an approaching trough and turn more "poleward". Weaker and vertically low level systems are more apt to move with the low level easterly
trades (generally why most low latitude tropical waves generally move to the west).

[xironman]

Can it bust through the high building to the north?

[ObsessedMiami]

So is this looking like squally weather for Miami Dade, heavier weather possible or no one knows yet?

[nativefloridian]

Is recon heading out there now or was it canceled?

[aperson]

Is recon heading out there now or was it canceled?

It's on the way, you can follow along at https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[northjaxpro]

Recon is almost there. Should be getting the first fixes soon.

[Hurricaneman]

I see what seems to be multiple vortices, one under the convection, one near Crooked Island and one to the west of the convection. It shows this is still disorganized and needs to go down to one vorticity before it can strengthen significantly

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it might have actually closed off.. right over san Salvador island. and luckily recon is almost there. weakly of ocurse.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1172227762410516480

[SFLcane]

Looks like it might have actually closed off.. right over san Salvador island. and luckily recon is almost there. weakly of ocurse.

Hmm .. Looks highly sheared with a very broad ill defined circulation. Just based on satellite appearance this afternoon i am siding with the GFS on keeping this weak and probably not attending a name. We shall see

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it might have actually closed off.. right over san Salvador island. and luckily recon is almost there. weakly of ocurse.

We’ll recon will have radar to tell where to look but your location is a good bet but there also could be something under the convection

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it might have actually closed off.. right over san Salvador island. and luckily recon is almost there. weakly of ocurse.

We’ll recon will have radar to tell where to look but your location is a good bet but there also could be something under the convection

it is under the convection.