ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Looks like the mid level circulation north of Mayaguana Island in the Bahamas is the place to look for surface circulation formation......MGC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

LLC should reform under MLC shifting the center to the east. 95L looks to pass east of Florida. Most likely it will wrap dry air around the NW side and bring dry weather over the west coast of Florida. East coast will have some Squalls. It should be a bit breezy though across all of Florida. Lots of kite surfers on Tampa Bay today. Given 95L wrapping dry air over central Florida- our weather (meaning Tampa Bay) should be very dry for the next 5 continuing into next week. This year has so many troughs that are keeping systems out of the gulf, Barry of course was the exception.

However- if the System stays sheared and weak longer, it may get further west- so gulf coasters hoping for rain- hope for shear to keep it weak.

I try to be as objective as possible when making these forecasts. Not gonna lie, as a weather fan of rain, I’m pretty disappointed that both Dorian and now 95L managed to wrap dry air and take away my rain chances. Nevertheless, I sent my online donations and prayers to people in the Bahamas.

[flamingosun]

According to the Recon thread, there is a flight scheduled for 4pm today.

[WeatherEmperor]

According to the Recon thread, there is a flight scheduled for 4pm today.

Is 4pm the departure time or the time they are expected to reach the Invest?


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[Evil Jeremy]

According to the Recon thread, there is a flight scheduled for 4pm today.

Is 4pm the departure time or the time they are expected to reach the Invest?


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I believe that's when they get there. Departure in an hour.

[gatorcane]

Don’t forget the Euro and UK models busted big time in similar situations to this one. I can think of the one from 2015 where the those models wanted to send a hurricane into South Florida and GFS said nope and it was right. That invest passed through the Straits and later developed in the EGOM

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z GFS shows shear decreasing over 95L starting tonight and into tomorrow

[ronjon]

Don’t forget the Euro and UK models busted big time in similar situations to this one. I can think of the one from 2015 where the those models wanted to send a hurricane into South Florida and GFS said nope and it was right. That invest passed through the Straits and later developed in the EGOM

Yeah the American models could still be correct - they are obviously simulating something in the atmosphere that is not conducive to tropical cyclone development. It has to be shear and perhaps a broad surface low that can't tighten up rapidly. Or because of shear, the midlevel and low level centers can't align. Cyclogenesis is still poorly understood science.

[Michele B]

As with recent history, the evolution and timing of this system will likely play a large role in it's eventual track. Taking into account the timing of the Great Lakes short wave that will weaken the ridge over the Tennessee valley, it seems that a SLOWER development solution would favor a greater opportunity for strengthening however also impart a more NNW motion while responding to the weakness in the ridge resulting in any developing T.S. to remain east of Florida. A MORE RAPID process of organization would seem to at least temporarily result in a more WNW motion under the stronger heights still in place to it's north.

We still don't know where a COC will finally develop but how far north and east verses south and west will play a large role whether a T.D. (or stronger) landfalls over the Florida east coast or enters the GOM. For the moment though, it's hard for me to imagine that significant vertical development will occur to result in a T.D. to develop in under 36 hr.'s (approx. 0Z Sat). During this time however, the wave axis will slowly be moving westward while over time it just seems as if the greatest mid level vorticity associated is propagating more northward. Given the time necessary to organize along with the slow overall NNW progression of the broad low to mid level circulation, it's hard for me to imagine a significant T.S. to landfall the Florida coastline. Perhaps a T.D. or borderline T.S. just as it tightens up at the coast later Saturday perhaps. As time progresses on though, it's harder and harder for me to imagine a developing LLC to fully cross into the GOM (unless any new secondary LLC feature develops along the wave access in the N.E. gulf days from now).

Didn't we just have this discussion with Dorian?? A stronger storm will be influenced less by troughs, than a weaker one?

Or was it the other way around?

[Hammy]

Don’t forget the Euro and UK models busted big time in similar situations to this one. I can think of the one from 2015 where the those models wanted to send a hurricane into South Florida and GFS said nope and it was right. That invest passed through the Straits and later developed in the EGOM

If that was Erika, both models actually did that--and the Euro was the first to back off while the GFS kept pushing it into S FLorida.

Personally I'm not trusting any of the models until we get some recon data into them.

[Buck]

Personally I'm not trusting any of the models until we get some recon data into them.

Good point. People on here AND the models are all over the place at the moment... I'm not putting much stock in anything at the moment.

[SFLcane]

Don’t forget the Euro and UK models busted big time in similar situations to this one. I can think of the one from 2015 where the those models wanted to send a hurricane into South Florida and GFS said nope and it was right. That invest passed through the Straits and later developed in the EGOM

GFS might not be crazy afterall CMC and HWRF agree and bring 95L into SFL though weak.

[Tireman4]

Don’t forget the Euro and UK models busted big time in similar situations to this one. I can think of the one from 2015 where the those models wanted to send a hurricane into South Florida and GFS said nope and it was right. That invest passed through the Straits and later developed in the EGOM

If that was Erika, both models actually did that--and the Euro was the first to back off while the GFS kept pushing it into S FLorida.

Personally I'm not trusting any of the models until we get some recon data into them.

Agreed. All just conjecture..

[TheStormExpert]

Don’t forget the Euro and UK models busted big time in similar situations to this one. I can think of the one from 2015 where the those models wanted to send a hurricane into South Florida and GFS said nope and it was right. That invest passed through the Straits and later developed in the EGOM

GFS might not be crazy afterall CMC and HWRF agree and bring 95L into SFL though weak.

With the way 95L looks I’d be siding with the GFS.

[MississippiWx]

Clouds are obscuring surface cloud movements, but breaks in the mid-high level clouds hint that 95L is still rather disorganized underneath the hood. I hope recon will give it a look today, if nothing more than to improve models. I wouldn't look for 95L to become a tropical cyclone before late tomorrow or Saturday unless something drastic occurs.

[NDG]

The way I see it, L is the broad surface circulation, L is where the mid level circulation is, shear has to relax some so that they stack one on top of each other and the system starts strengthening.

[Evil Jeremy]

Based on the models 12z models so far, I don't think NHC will be making any changes to their TWO "bubble" at 2pm.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems like some of the outflow-type clouds are expanding to the NW over the past few hours. May be a sign that shear to the W of the system is easing back? Still seeing most of the convection to the E of the area of lowest pressure

[Hammy]

After staring at the sat loop for awhile it looks like it's fairly elongated but if there's a nearby area that has more favorable conditions, formation of the surface low tends to favor the convection--even in Erin's case it eventually took shape closest to the convection despite far more shear in that instance.

[Aric Dunn]

Real simple fact as to why the gfs will likely fail on intensity

95l barely moving. ULL moving faster. The seperatation between the two is key..

Gfs... has been insistent on 95l moving for days.. but it has not done so. Only a matter of time before the gfs flips...

Unless 95l starts moving west staying in the sheared environment