ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Looks to me like LLC might be developing/closing off just north of Crooked Island? At least based on cloud motion.

[Evil Jeremy]

I this thread not for the discussion of 95L?

yes, we are discussing the ramifications of 95L and how its going to affect people...btw, i am in pompano, you get hit with that big squall?

Yes we sure did some lighting to 20-25mph winds

Same. Fun to wake up to.

[Aric Dunn]

Right now the broad turning is very evident centered over the south central Bahamas. But man...if convection deepens farther north east then seeing a center tighten up is highly likely today. It is very close.

[CronkPSU]

when is recon going in? would really like NHC to start giving updates, track and discussions

[Raebie]

Not liking the east trend, we desperately need rain in the central Gulf and the Bahamas up into the Carolinas absolutely don't

Central and western Carolinas are desperate for rain. Hoping for a good drenching.

[chaser1]

As with recent history, the evolution and timing of this system will likely play a large role in it's eventual track. Taking into account the timing of the Great Lakes short wave that will weaken the ridge over the Tennessee valley, it seems that a SLOWER development solution would favor a greater opportunity for strengthening however also impart a more NNW motion while responding to the weakness in the ridge resulting in any developing T.S. to remain east of Florida. A MORE RAPID process of organization would seem to at least temporarily result in a more WNW motion under the stronger heights still in place to it's north.

We still don't know where a COC will finally develop but how far north and east verses south and west will play a large role whether a T.D. (or stronger) landfalls over the Florida east coast or enters the GOM. For the moment though, it's hard for me to imagine that significant vertical development will occur to result in a T.D. to develop in under 36 hr.'s (approx. 0Z Sat). During this time however, the wave axis will slowly be moving westward while over time it just seems as if the greatest mid level vorticity associated is propagating more northward. Given the time necessary to organize along with the slow overall NNW progression of the broad low to mid level circulation, it's hard for me to imagine a significant T.S. to landfall the Florida coastline. Perhaps a T.D. or borderline T.S. just as it tightens up at the coast later Saturday perhaps. As time progresses on though, it's harder and harder for me to imagine a developing LLC to fully cross into the GOM (unless any new secondary LLC feature develops along the wave access in the N.E. gulf days from now).

[Aric Dunn]

12z icon is almost indentical the 6z euro so far.

[ronjon]

Looks to be getting sheared to death on VIS SAT now.

[xironman]

when is recon going in? would really like NHC to start giving updates, track and discussions

I think around 4pm edt. The larger question is if it is worth it.

[xironman]

Looks to be getting sheared to death on VIS SAT now.

The west side is torn apart. Now relocate the center to the NE it is not quite as bad.

[Dean4Storms]

The area of lowest pressure is near 75w 23n and moving WNW and all of the convection well ENE of the surface Low. This is still quite sheared and disorganized.

[Siker]

Decent clockwise motion of cirrus on the SE side of the MLC. That and the southeasterly flow on the west side due to the ULL indicates that the MLC is not in a terrible shear environment. Should continue to get better as the ULL backs to the west if 95L keeps hanging on the east side of guidance.

[psyclone]

I think this will go eventually, probably PTC later today with TS warnings for parts of the Bahamas, maybe watches for parts of the east coast, nothing for the Gulf (at least not yet if ever). Should be a good weekend (between the showers) for the kite boarder/windsurfer crew along the west coast of FL.

[Aric Dunn]

The gfs is having none of this recurve jazz. Lol

Its like what trough ?

[wxman57]

The area of lowest pressure is near 75w 23n and moving WNW and all of the convection well ENE of the surface Low. This is still quite sheared and disorganized.

That's just about where I have the red crosshairs on the image below. Just a tiny trace of a low center there. Mid-level rotation is to the east. LLC will always follow the convection, not the other way around. There's no surface convergence near 23N/75W. My preliminary afternoon track keeps it east of Florida. West of the Euro a bit. Pretty sure the NHC will initiate advisories this afternoon after they see the 12Z guidance. They'll likely put their day-5 point off the coast of Georgia a ways. TVCN (consensus) is too far west, given the GFS is part of the consensus.

[toad strangler]

The gfs is having none of this recurve jazz. Lol

Nope. Right through S FL with a hot mess and into the Big Bend area of GOM

[Craters]

Nice towers around Great Inagua

Dang, I'm tired. I thought you were talking about "Great Lasagna," GCANE...

[jfk08c]

Seems like models with better organization send it more east. If things begin to consolidate today or Friday, i'd lean towards a path off the east coast of Florida. If shear continues to leave the system disorganized, a track across Florida and into the GoM seems more likely

[tpr1967]

The gfs is having none of this recurve jazz. Lol

Its like what trough ?

The difference I'm seeing Aric is the 06Z GFS shears out the 500mb low over the Bahamas because of the strengthening 500MB low in the gulf. The other models taking it up along the Fl. east coast maintain a 500MB low.

[chaser1]

Looks to be getting sheared to death on VIS SAT now.

The west side is torn apart. Now relocate the center to the NE it is not quite as bad.

Just adds to why I think a westward T.D. over far S. Florida seems less and less reasonable. Either this develops further north and east and eventually rides along or east of Florida, or nothing beyond a wave moves west over the state and into the E. GOM. I"m guessing that recon will fly today if for no other reason that NHC see's the potential for near-term development along with having the weekend fast approaching. I think they'll err on the side of caution and get a plane in there to see if any COC might be trying to develop. Unless it's really looking like dog-meat, I'm guessing they'd rather not take the risk of some quick spin up occur on Saturday with little public awareness ahead of time.