2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Hammy]

Central MDR--anybody more knowledgeable know what's been going on with that this year? Several non-developing systems seem like they're being upwrapped so to speak, and not just in models, it happened with the two waves early in August as well.

[SFLcane]

Not sure what all the hype about a dangerous pattern setting up putting the SE at risk but all i see on the GFS is a repeat of trof after trof every 2-3 days it seems.

[psyclone]

Kinda quiet for peak season day. So far we've had a one hit wonder but if the recent past is any indication the 2nd half will feature more activity than the first..although Dorian is almost certain to be storm of the year (at least we hope)..

[Hurricaneman]

The MJO configuration looks similar to the one that caused such Caribbean October monsters and systems since 1990

1994 Gordon
1995 Opal
1998 Mitch
1999 Irene
2001 Michelle
2005 Stan
2005 Wilma
2005 Beta
2008 Omar
2008 Paloma
2009 Ida
2010 Paula
2010 Richard
2011 Rina
2012 Sandy
2016 Matthew
2017 Nate
2018 Michael

Other notable hurricane from this kind of setup

1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane
1954 Hazel

October is actually the month with the highest landfall rate for Florida so until the month of October is over the threat still remains

[Hammy]

CFS latest run appears to develop both 95L and the wave behind 94L, as well as the wave behind that but not much else in the Atlantic, and that's about it for the season in the Atlantic itself, unless some of those higher-latitude systems it's showing are tropical/subtropical. However, it at least four systems in the Gulf during October, including a possible major originating in the NW Caribbean--something it's been fairly persistent on even when that was at the end of the run.

[hurricaneCW]

Not sure what all the hype about a dangerous pattern setting up putting the SE at risk but all i see on the GFS is a repeat of trof after trof every 2-3 days it seems.

It's incorrect and has a troughiness bias. Look at Euro/EPS instead.

[tolakram]

Here's the instability graph. This has been below normal for, what, 8 years running now? I think it's time someone admit that when they changed the scale of this plot the average line was misplaced.

[galaxy401]

^ When was the last time that the instability was actually "above normal"? The past time I recalled it being above the line, it was only brief.

[Hammy]

^ When was the last time that the instability was actually "above normal"? The past time I recalled it being above the line, it was only brief.

It touched the line a few times and went very slightly above in 2017 a few times right before things formed. After that I quit checking it if 2017 is barely what this thing considers average.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the models are showing a burst of activity starting with 95L and possibly going until mid October with the coming of the MJO which is forecast to move into the Atlantic in 4 days and moving into phases 8 1 and 2 which could mean a month of storms possibly up to 8 more in this timeframe but the most dangerous to the US could be in October in the western Caribbean and the setup may yield a high level hurricane so beware

[chaser1]

Not sure what all the hype about a dangerous pattern setting up putting the SE at risk but all i see on the GFS is a repeat of trof after trof every 2-3 days it seems.

I agree. Say what you will regard the GFS having a troughiness bias but until I see rock hard ridging take a vacation home over Georgia, I'd suggest that a recurve scenario is more likely then a Florida landfall for systems that approach from the S.E. That still suggests a continued risk for the beleaguered Bahamas and possibly the Carolina coastline. Now.... show me a developing tropical cyclone that's in the Caribbean and south of "the rock", and then I'll begin to consider that Florida or the N. GOM coastline may really be at potential risk. There's a lot of September left but this October could prove quite eventful.

[Hammy]

MDR may be closed for the season given the continuing pushing back of any development there--anything that forms will likely be in the subtropics or west of 60.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1172146594701094913

[toad strangler]

The last two posts above are not like each other

[psyclone]

The last two posts above are not like each other

Put all your chips on Noll, hands down. He has earned his cred with medium and long range progs

[chaser1]

The last two posts above are not like each other

Perhaps at first blush, i'd agree. After taking some time to really study the upcoming 4 week cycle that Ben Noll speaks of, it's not entirely off from what Hammy was suggesting regarding the most likely areas of upcoming development. Seems that if the MJO will really play a large role here, then we're on the cusp of seeing that up-tick occur very very soon. Thus the concern about model support for any wave(s) presently over the Eastern Atlantic.

Now, beyond week 1 (Sept 13-20) however, I don't think the MJO maps are suggesting the easternmost MDR will continue to remain prolific. I think this was what Hammy was suggesting in terms of "the MDR may be closed for the season". Weeks 2-4 seem to imply overall rising air and most favorable conditions over those areas of the Atlantic that are
1) largely north of 20N....... and
2) anywhere west of 80W.

Assuming that both statements could be correct would suggest that we'll see a nearly immediate ramp up of activity across much of the Atlantic basin (including the MDR). Following this upcoming week or so, we'll likely continue to see an active W. Atlantic, W. Caribbean and GOM however see the E. Atlantic MDR tail off. Then again, that's not too far off from Climo anyway.

[tolakram]

The state of the MDR is meaningless for the season, need I bring up 2005? I think Hammy's post is pretty spot on, the MDR is going to have moments of favorability but for the most part be shut down unless something drastically changes. Seasons when the MDR has been hostile are some of the most dangerous in my opinion.

Regardless, I still think a near normal season is in the cards. If we get another big ACE earner that stays offshore then I might be convinced in a slightly above average season.

[Hammy]

1985 is coming to mind increasingly as well, albeit a backloaded variant--activity occurred more in spurts rather than any continuous activity like we saw last year, MDR was void aside from Gloria (which didn't really take off until around 60W) and a few depressions, and there was even a fairly lengthy quiet period in September--not one named storm was tracked for the full two weeks between Elena's landfall and Fabian's formation (so essentially most of the first half of September). And we all know what came in the latter half of the month and rest of the season.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro for the MJO is in phases 8 and 1 for at least a month, that is scary and I would think a western Caribbean monster would come from such a pattern

[gatorcane]

So far for Florida at least season has been behaving as expected. Indicators earlier in the summer pointed at a weak Bermuda High unlike the last few years. So I wasn’t expecting any hits from the east. Dorian did surprise me a bit and came close but just not enough ridging. October continues to have my interest as something from the south is the more likely scenario for impacting Florida. Without El Niño and an untapped Western Caribbean not to mention we are due for a late season monster down there, October could get interesting.