ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

I mean... I'm now worried.... about the possibility this storm shifts further west...
If an anticyclone builds up...

I'm concerned about an RI event

The limiting factor I see is that this does not have a lot of TPW air to feed off.
At this point, only a weak feed thru the Windward passage.
Dorian had a lot more and was virtually drinking the juice out of the east GOM.
This one is cut off from the GOM.

What does TPW mean?

I'm glad I'm not the only one wanting to ask that question. Thks
I just googled it ...Total Precipitable Water

[Chris_in_Tampa]

You can see a Total Precipitable Water loop here:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I have a mirror of Bahamas radar imagery here:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/
It has a longer loop than the Bahamas' radar display.

[Dean4Storms]

Deep convection tonight right over the Low as positioned by Best Track.

[eastcoastFL]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

With Irma Euro predicted 100 mph winds for Stuart, I didn’t believe it being Irma was on W coast of FL. NWS confirmed 100 mph gust in Stuart. Euro was dead on with the gust map just like the one you posted...

Did they really confirm that? It didn’t seem that bad. Irma was probably the weakest storm I’ve been through as far as effects I noticed in Martin county. Frances Jeanne And Wilma were much worse. Actually Matthew seemed worse too.

[Ubuntwo]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

With Irma Euro predicted 100 mph winds for Stuart, I didn’t believe it being Irma was on W coast of FL. NWS confirmed 100 mph gust in Stuart. Euro was dead on with the gust map just like the one you posted...

Did they really confirm that? It didn’t seem that bad. Irma was probably the weakest storm I’ve been through as far as effects I noticed in Martin county. Frances Jeanne And Wilma were much worse. Actually Matthew seemed worse too.

St.Lucie Power Plant had an 87kt/100mph gust, so they are spot on

[jdjaguar]

18z euro.. hurricane 75mph into Melbourne

well 73.32 mph. lol

https://i.ibb.co/xz07vYq/us-model-en-087-0-modezrpd-2019091118-81-8838-460.png

With Irma Euro predicted 100 mph winds for Stuart, I didn’t believe it being Irma was on W coast of FL. NWS confirmed 100 mph gust in Stuart. Euro was dead on with the gust map just like the one you posted...

Did they really confirm that? It didn’t seem that bad. Irma was probably the weakest storm I’ve been through as far as effects I noticed in Martin county. Frances Jeanne And Wilma were much worse. Actually Matthew seemed worse too.

We had gusts to 90 at Mayport.

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s my thoughts

I believe this will be a right sided tropical storm between 50and 60mph but if the ULL in the GOM gets out of the way quicker maybe a ceiling of something to Katrinas Florida landfall of 85mph but I’m not so sure this goes into the Gulf but if it does it could be a small issue as it wouldn’t spend much time over it

As for landfall anyone from Key West to Daytona will have to keep tabs on this

[Frank P]

NHC 2am update cone and probabilities pretty much like the 8pm from last night...does not show the eastern bias of the euro, icon or UKMET, at least not yet... still looking like a WNW to NW oriented red cone to me

[aperson]

Just noticed that GOES-East meso floater 2 is now on Invest 95L: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[Kingarabian]

If the 00z Euro verifies I would say complete mandatory evacuations for the Bahamas.

[GCANE]

Looks like there are two camps of development scenarios.
GFS appears to develop the 700mb vort located currently at 21.8N 74.5W, moves it into the GOM.
This is based on multi-satellite analysis.
Euro wants to develop the 500mb vort located currently at 23.2N 73.1W, moves it up the east coast.
Today will be pivotal on which way this goes.
The big actor in this is the ULL in the NE GOM and associated trough.
Stay tuned.

[GCANE]

At first glance, the Euro scenario looks more probable.
Multiple towers currently shooting over this.
Divergent air flow at 250mb.
Convergent air flow in the boundary layer.

Recon leaves this afternoon.

[WAcyclone]

It sure looks like the NHC is not buying the EURO and
ICON runs so far with WNW hook.

They have access to guidance that the public doesn’t have. I would stick with their word. They also mention this will go through the FL Straits and SEFL so that’s also farther south than the models indicate.

I believe that the only model that the NHC forecasters have that we don't is the FSU Superensemble.

They also have access to the ECMWF-based SHIPS model which, of course, would be very interesting to see for this system.

[Aric Dunn]

The biggest changes with the models are how much it slowed down. It has barely moved the last 24 hours which has led to this drastiic change.

It should already be near andros today but it has not moved. Upper low will get farther away trough has time to erode ridge. And out to sea.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1172077679560052736

[xironman]

Yeah where genesis happens is the big thing, the GFS and the Euro are so far apart they come under different steering influences. I currently give the upper hand to the Euro because it relocates the "center" under the strongest convection. Chris's radar makes me thing something is going on around Crooked Island

[Nimbus]

Upper level low is shearing the system so we don't have a very good model initialization.
Appears that a LLC forming later and further east might track east of Florida.
Could just get a sloppy mess if there is no clear LLC to steer.

[NDG]

It makes sense that the mid and UL SW shear could make the system keep trying to reform further north, a further north formation will make it not get too much under the influence of the ridge currently over the TN river valley before the ridge starts moving to the west a weakness develop over the NE US. That has been common with systems when they have reached the northern Bahamas, to make hard turn away from FL, starting with TD 3.

[Aric Dunn]

First few visible images are showing a elongated but closed wind field it seems. On the sw edge of the convection..