Models back off on Western Caribbean

[Stormsfury]

Right now, an amazing short difference of distance in the Caribbean between relatively light shear and the SBJ screaming ENE across the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

This includes the NOGAPS which now basically doesn't bring the surface winds above 25-30 kts. The NOGAPS keeps the main vort energy in the SW Caribbean and quite close to the coast with another wave steadily moving west. At the end of the timeframe, another little swirl shows up close to the Yucatan Peninsula (east of Cozumel). What's even more interesting is that it still insists on keeping Nicholas a separate entity and with some decent surface winds at it moves northward in time (according to NOGAPS). Also noticed at the end of the timeframe, that it closes off a low SW of the Cape Verde Islands in about 4 days or so.

The GFS is even less impressive in regards to that region. Basically is still showing an energy split with one piece ejecting NE and another staying behind in the SW Caribbean.

The MM5 had become a little more robust in a low pressure depiction and a little better wind field but still only in the TD range at the end of the timeframe. Also in regards to the energy split, it briefly indicates TS winds with the first piece of energy ejected NE after passing over Dominica.

MM5 MSLP
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

MM5 Accum. 40m Wind Speed
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

The ECMWF tonight representing a little better depiction of a surface low in the SW Caribbean and hanging it around through Day 7. However, if you'll notice on the Day 5 map, the isobars extend all the way down into the Caribbean sea.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

That's quite a moisture influx being shown by the ECMWF tonight which could aid in the development of a pretty robust severe weather episode in the Eastern States (AL/GA, The Carolinas, and MAYBE the Mid-Atlantic if the cool air layer is scoured out). Right now, I believe that it will be for two reasons. 1) Time of year. 2) Strength and favorable positioning for the Eastern Low to flood the East with WAA. In fact, reviewing the EC data closely, the Mid-Atlantic MAY have an outbreak of severe weather if the ECMWF verifies. More on this in another forum.

Day 6, the EC closes off the low as the full latitude neg tilt trough bypasses the Caribbean system and occludes over the Great Lakes/Eastern Canada region.

The bottom line, IF anything is to evolve in the Western Caribbean, it will be very slow to do so ... and not likely in the near term ... the potential MAY be there after 5 days.

SF

[cycloneye]

Yes slow to develop if it does at all because it is a broad low pressure and those kinds of lows are slow to organize.

SF what about what you posted last night about GFS showing a november CV low anything new on that or it is gone?

[Stormsfury]

Yes slow to develop if it does at all because it is a broad low pressure and those kinds of lows are slow to organize.

SF what about what you posted last night about GFS showing a november CV low anything new on that or it is gone?

Honestly, Cycloneye, I haven't looked that far out with two developments (one being the Western Caribbean and the other being the potential Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx potential 4-5 days from now). Interestingly enough, the NOGAPS closes off a low at the end of the PSU TCGPF site.

NOGAPS MSLP
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/nogapstc2.c ... =Animation

[Anonymous]

It does look like there is a definite circulation center, but not too much in the way of deep thunderstorms.

[Anonymous]

Scatterometer winds clearly show a well-defined LLC near 12/85. It's going to take time for it to organize though.

[Stormsfury]

Scatterometer winds clearly show a well-defined LLC near 12/85. It's going to take time for it to organize though.

Noticed that earlier too. You're right, since the convection regime is generally scattered moderate ... looks like we're seeing the one piece of vorticity already ejecting NEward and the other remaining parked ...

Haven't devoted a lot of time on this tonight with the possibilities of a decent severe Wx setup in the Southeast/Mid-ATL in about 4-5 days and have been devoting my time on that more tonight (plus relaxing away from the PC for a change. LOL).

SF