#68 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:42 pm
EWX being cautious and siding with the euro, given the current dryness. Understandable. Hard to get out of a pattern rut when you're in it for a while. Land of perpetual drought, occasionally interrupted by floods.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2019
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Afternoon cumulus field has developed across much of the area today.
Moisture values are the highest in the western CWA and some isolated
showers have developed in this area. Based on the extent of the
cloud field on latest satellite imagery, expect this trend to
continue through the late afternoon hours. Much of the activity
should just remain showers, but an isolated thunderstorm is also
possible. Otherwise, the high pressure system remains in play for the
remainder of the area and temperatures are responding accordingly.
The warmest temperatures are in the eastern CWA with temperatures
already nearing 100 degrees. Highs should max out in the 100-103
degree range for areas east of Highway 281 and the middle to upper
90s for locations to the east. Dewpoints are in the lower to middle
60s which should keep heat index values below advisory criteria.
For tonight, any leftover showers out west should be dissipated with
a mostly clear night expected across the region. Low temperatures
should drop into the lower to middle 70s. For tomorrow, dry weather
is expected across the area as the ridging remains. However, a weak
upper level low pressure system is expected to develop across the
western Gulf of Mexico. This feature should help weaken the ridge as
it slowly moves west. Therefore highs tomorrow could be a degree or
two less than today for some locations. Another dry night is expected
tomorrow night with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The previously mentioned upper level low is expected to continue to
slowly move west into Texas for next week. This will continue to
allow upper heights to lower and the grip of the well above normal
temperatures to slacken. Highs on Monday should only be in the 90-98
degree range and while this is about 5-6 degrees cooler than today,
it will still be slightly above normal. These lower to middle 90s
temperatures are likely to remain in place for the entire work week.
While confidence is high that we will get cooler temperatures out of
this weak upper low, there remains some uncertainty on how much rain
there will be next week. The GFS is stronger and wetter with the
system than the ECMWF/Canadian with a decent shot of scattered rain
for the entire week. Due to recent trends and the dryness over the
past 2 months, do not want to go higher than 30 PoPs for now and will
side with the drier solutions.
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