ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8841 Postby Evenstar » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:30 pm

Vdogg wrote:
linttrap wrote:
Vdogg wrote:Usually the storms that come through our area (Va. Beach) are either starting to fall apart from dry air entrainment or making an extratropical transition. It's actually extremely rare for us to encounter a tropical system that continues to strengthen on approach.


I'm also from Va. Beach and this storm is much stronger than most we get. It's giving me the heebie jeebies, but the people out and about today that I have talked to are very nonchalant about it, because of the history of so many hurricanes that turned into no-big-deal.

It's because they stopped the hurricane warning at the border. I hate it when they do that, it's not like the winds magically die down right at the state line. The official weather forecast calls for us to have a very high and tropical storm with over hurricane-force gusts, but everyone thinks we're just in store for some run-of-the-mill tropical storm. They're going to be unprepared. I'm usually not one to criticize NHC but I think they really make a mistake when they do that because people don't take it seriously.


I sometimes think we have more than our fair share of oblivious morons in Hampton Roads. This morning, the receptionist at my doctor's office here in Chesapeake actually said the words, "I haven't been paying attention to the news about the storm. They always say it's going to be bad and it never is, so I don't really worry about it." Aaaand, in addition to people just being congenitally stupid, I apportion some of the blame to a few of the local weather guys who seem hellbent on downplaying rough weather. I won't name names, just in case they lurk on Storm2k.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8842 Postby hipshot » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:45 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Darwin Award for stupidity

https://twitter.com/ActiveWxCams/status/1169655086718640128


Well, it looks like they at least got out before all this got out of hand.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8843 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:46 pm

Looks like a really good chance the worst of Dorian stays off shore. Should keep wind damage to a minimum. Surge is still top concern at this time .
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8844 Postby Vdogg » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:48 pm

Evenstar wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
linttrap wrote:
I'm also from Va. Beach and this storm is much stronger than most we get. It's giving me the heebie jeebies, but the people out and about today that I have talked to are very nonchalant about it, because of the history of so many hurricanes that turned into no-big-deal.

It's because they stopped the hurricane warning at the border. I hate it when they do that, it's not like the winds magically die down right at the state line. The official weather forecast calls for us to have a very high and tropical storm with over hurricane-force gusts, but everyone thinks we're just in store for some run-of-the-mill tropical storm. They're going to be unprepared. I'm usually not one to criticize NHC but I think they really make a mistake when they do that because people don't take it seriously.


I sometimes think we have more than our fair share of oblivious morons in Hampton Roads. This morning, the receptionist at my doctor's office here in Chesapeake actually said the words, "I haven't been paying attention to the news about the storm. They always say it's going to be bad and it never is, so I don't really worry about it." Aaaand, in addition to people just being congenitally stupid, I apportion some of the blame to a few of the local weather guys who seem hellbent on downplaying rough weather. I won't name names, just in case they lurk on Storm2k.


You must be talking about the same guy who hates snow. :lol: I remember I think is was the day after Christmas 2010 and he called for a dusting and we got 15 inches! :cold:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8845 Postby syfr » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:49 pm

NHS 5 PM report indicates pressure in the eye is rising .
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8846 Postby Vdogg » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:57 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like a really good chance the worst of Dorian stays off shore. Should keep wind damage to a minimum. Surge is still top concern at this time .
Models are still tracking it to the west of Obx. I wouldn't sound the all clear yet.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8847 Postby Vdogg » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:02 pm

Bit of a tick north that last frame. Dorian's about to give Willmington a haircut. This one's gonna be real close.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8848 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:03 pm

hipshot wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Darwin Award for stupidity

https://twitter.com/ActiveWxCams/status/1169655086718640128


Well, it looks like they at least got out before all this got out of hand.



Apparently from what I understand, The red truck/jeep was driven out on the beach last night and got stuck in the sand. They didn't immediately have it towed out so when the tides came in, it was too late.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8849 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:05 pm

BAck up to 110 mph per the 6pm update.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8850 Postby Vdogg » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:05 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
hipshot wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Darwin Award for stupidity

https://twitter.com/ActiveWxCams/status/1169655086718640128


Well, it looks like they at least got out before all this got out of hand.

Everyone has known this Hurricane was coming for 5 days. To not do everything you can to tow it out the night before is still qualifying for a Darwin award IMO.

Apparently from what I understand, The red truck/jeep was driven out on the beach last night and got stuck in the sand. They didn't immediately have it towed out so when the tides came in, it was too late.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8851 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:18 pm

Very loud, turn down the sound. Last hours before sunset.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/vGimsBVpuN8[/youtube]
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8852 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:19 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8853 Postby Orson » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:21 pm

In regards to the red Jeep on Myrtle, all wheel drive really doesn't mean squat in terms of traction on sand. The wetter the sand, the less traction you get.

20 years ago, I got my pickup stuck at Destin just parking on the side of the road. Felt pretty foolish, but I learned a valuable lesson, not the least of which is including towing straps in your breakdown kit.

No different on a steep incline in snow. Clay kitty litter bags in the back seat starting in November. And I am just north of Atlanta proper.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8854 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:22 pm

I don’t know what they’re seeing to raise it back to 110 mph. Recon sure doesn’t support it, with max FL 90 kt and SFMR 80 kt. I would think the most they would get is 100-105 mph.

EDIT: I saw that it was a typo right after I posted.
Last edited by wx98 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8855 Postby sikkar » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:22 pm

The eye might pass directly over the tower.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8856 Postby sikkar » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:23 pm

wx98 wrote:I don’t know what they’re seeing to raise it back to 110 mph. Recon sure doesn’t support it, with max FL 90 kt and SFMR 80 kt. I would think the most they would get is 100-105 mph.

It was a typo, they fixed it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8857 Postby wx98 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:23 pm

wx98 wrote:I don’t know what they’re seeing to raise it back to 110 mph. Recon sure doesn’t support it, with max FL 90 kt and SFMR 80 kt. I would think the most they would get is 100-105 mph.

Nevermind, it was another mistake in the advisory from NHC :lol: it’s still 105
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8858 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:25 pm

wx98 wrote:I don’t know what they’re seeing to raise it back to 110 mph. Recon sure doesn’t support it, with max FL 90 kt and SFMR 80 kt. I would think the most they would get is 100-105 mph.


I think ( for the 2nd time) they had to change it back to 105. Not sure who is doing the updates, but this is twice they have had to amend their update.

180
WTNT65 KNHC 052217 CCA
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected sustained maximum winds and present movement in table.

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

A buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina recently measured
sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h).

An observation from Southport, NC, recently reported a sustained
wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8859 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:28 pm

wx98 wrote:
wx98 wrote:I don’t know what they’re seeing to raise it back to 110 mph. Recon sure doesn’t support it, with max FL 90 kt and SFMR 80 kt. I would think the most they would get is 100-105 mph.

Nevermind, it was another mistake in the advisory from NHC :lol: it’s still 105


Doubt anything changes from their 5:00 forecast of a very gradual weakening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 33.1N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#8860 Postby Powellrm » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:29 pm

Vdogg wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like a really good chance the worst of Dorian stays off shore. Should keep wind damage to a minimum. Surge is still top concern at this time .
Models are still tracking it to the west of Obx. I wouldn't sound the all clear yet.


I did not read this as “all clear” by any means.
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